"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

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The Biden Administration's limited policy change permitting Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike some Russian military targets in a small area within Russian territory has reduced the size of Russia's ground sanctuary by only 16 percent at maximum. US policy still preserves at least 84 percent of Russia's ground sanctuary – territory within range of Ukrainian ATACMS. US policy restricting Ukraine's usage of US-provided weapons has effectively created a vast sanctuary – territory in range of US-provided weapons but that Ukrainian forces are not allowed strike with US-provided weapons – which Russia exploits to shield its combat forces, command and control, logistics, and rear area support services that the Russian military uses to conduct its military operations in Ukraine.[1] US policy still protects the vast majority of Russia's operational rear and deep rear, and US policy forbids Ukraine from using ATACMS anywhere in Russia.[2] US President Joe Biden's limited policy change in late May 2024 regarding the use of US-provided weapons against military targets in Russia removed at maximum 16 percent of Russia's ground sanctuary, assuming that Ukrainian forces can strike all legitimate Russian military targets in range of Ukrainian HIMARS using GMLRS in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts. It is far from clear that Ukrainian forces have permission to do so, however. Senior US officials have described Ukraine's ability to strike into Russia with GMLRS as being for counterbattery fire and geographically bounded to the Kharkiv area, and have stated that Ukrainian forces may strike Russian military objects "deployed just across the [Ukrainian] border," suggesting that Ukraine may be prohibited from striking Russian military targets further in the rear or in other areas in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts that are still in range of GMLRS.[3] US officials' statements also indicate that Ukrainian forces may be constrained from striking Russian military targets that are not actively involved in ground attacks and strikes against Ukraine.[4] The reduction of the sanctuary space's area may be less than 16 percent, therefore.

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I think they need to do that when they can pull off a success.
IF there's reasonable odds of success, it's too dangerous to wait until 2025 to establish a firm foothold in in Crimea. In Jan 2025 the Congress might be entirely anti-Ukraine, with the taps of US support once again switched off. Zelenskyy must learn from the recent shutdown of aid that US support cannot be guaranteed.

Russia has lost sea control of the Black Sea, with Karkinitsky Bay seemingly little defended. Once AWACS-supported F-16s can gain aerial superiority, several seemingly innocent grain carriers loaded with troops and supplies could sail from Odessa and seize the lightly-defended city of Chornomors'ke. The local ethnic Russia civilians will likely flee. Once the UAF has air superiority and the final Kilo SSKs are destroyed by ATACMS or other means, the UAF will be free to send convoys of support across from Odessa.


I know this will earn me a rainbow, but I would not wait until 2025 or 2026 to gain a foothold on Crimea... if you don't want to lose it forever in the eventual peace.
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