"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)
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Ukraine’s Victory Plan
Why theories of victory matter and what Ukraine’s victory plan needs to achieve
mickryan.substack.com
Thumpalumpacus
Major
KYIV, Sept 4 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that Ukraine needed "new energy", as he ordered a major government reshuffle at a crucial juncture in the war against Russia.
A total of six ministers, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, submitted their resignation and parliament accepted the resignations of four.
They included the resignations of a deputy prime minister in charge of European integration, the strategic industries minister overseeing Ukraine's arms production and two other ministers, the lawmakers said.
A total of six ministers, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, submitted their resignation and parliament accepted the resignations of four.
They included the resignations of a deputy prime minister in charge of European integration, the strategic industries minister overseeing Ukraine's arms production and two other ministers, the lawmakers said.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Reuters reported that the US is considering providing Ukraine with long range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs) but that Ukraine would not receive the missiles for months. Reuters reported, citing three sources including US officials, that the US is close to an agreement to provide JASSMs to Ukraine and that the missiles would be announced in a military assistance package in Fall 2024 but that the US has not yet finalized the deal.[21] Reuters noted that the JASSM has only been integrated into US-designed aircraft, and one US official told Reuters that "there were efforts" to integrate the JASSM with other fighter jets in Ukraine's air fleet. The standard JASSM has a range of roughly 370 kilometers, and the extended-range JASSM (JASSM-ER) has a range of about 1,000 kilometers.[22] Reuters reported that it is unclear which variant the US would send to Ukraine under this deal, although both variants have ranges longer than the maximum range of ATACMS missiles that the US has already provided to Ukraine.[23] ISW has previously assessed that there are at least 245 Russian military objects — at least 85 percent of which are not airfields — within range of ATACMS, and even just the standard JASSM launched from over Ukrainian airspace would likely further expand the set of military objects within Russia that would be in range of Ukrainian missiles.[24] It is unclear whether Ukraine would be able to take advantage of the JASSM's extended range given that current US policy restricts Ukraine from using the US-provided long-range precision weapons to strike military targets in Russia.[25] ISW continues to assess that current US restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use US-provided weapons to strike military targets within Russia and the slow provision of small numbers of such weapons are actively hindering Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive operations and substantially disrupt Russian operations.[26]
www.understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Ukraine says it can't stop Russia's barrage of deadly strikes without these missiles
As Moscow carries out some of the deadliest strikes on Ukraine this year, Kyiv is desperately seeking approval from the United States to use its long-range missile on high-value targets in Russia.
www.abc.net.au
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
I detect a disturbance in the Force. There has been a Federal indictment or two regarding media/election manipulation involving the good folks at RT. Perhaps Ukraine might be allowed to take the gloves off now?
Admiral Beez
Major
The trickle continues. Imagine if Ukraine of Sept 2022 or even Sept 2023 had the Western kit of Sept 2024. By Sept 2028 I expect Ukraine will finally have what it needed all along.
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
Just imagine if Ukraine rejected the Budapest Memorandum in 1993.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
One might hope, but I'm not sure that hope is well-placed. Such a lifting of restrictions would make sense, in the context of this being a proxy war. But I'm not sure that context holds true given the circumstances that Russia started this war, and the US in particular has indeed kept restrictions in place.
I think there's elements of that context that would justify the US responding to RT election interference by loosening restrictions. Hell, if I somehow got elected President, I'd make an unambiguous statement that evidenced election interference would be regarded as an act of war. I think the concept of hybrid warfare is valid, and in that perspective, the US lifting restrictions is proper.
I'm on record in this thread as wishing to see my 7th BW teaching Russians what it means to see the elephant, so yeah, I'm biased. Also a little buzzed, lol.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
That was my first thought. Then I considered what it might mean to collect these weapons, train Ukrainians in their use, package and then transport them, and then for the Ukrainians by assigning, deploying, and using the things.
But yes, trickles are annoying.
Snautzer01
Honourably banned
- 41,244
- Mar 26, 2007
Depending on the Canton voting can be done through showing of hands, postal voting, at polling booths, or electronically through the internet.
Voting in Switzerland - Wikipedia
Admiral Beez
Major
Russia might have marched in at that very moment. Ukraine couldn't use those nukes.
My favourite what if re. the Budapest Memorandum is that it leads to the USA to more actively guarantee Ukrainian independence. Dec 2013, the USA intel is that Russia plans to invade Crimea in Feb 2014. Early Jan 2014, Ukraine's new Western-leading president, Petro Poroshenko invites the US to send forces to Ukraine to "conduct training exercises" with AFU units. By the end of the month, the 9,200 ton (light) amphibious warfare ship USS Denver (LPD-9), escorted by the USS Spruance (DDG-111) and USS Ingraham (FFG-61) and arrive at Sevastopol carrying six CH-46 Sea Knight helicopters and 500 USMC troops and their vehicles. The Montreux Convention allows non-Black Sea warships up to 10,000 tons (with no one nation exceeding 30,000 tons at any given time) to enter the Black Sea for up to 21 days, so after three weeks USS Denver and her escorts will leave its marines behind on Crimea, exit the Sea and position itself at Turkey's Gölcük Naval Base.
That's what we needed POTUS44 to do. Perhaps if the US wasn't bogged down in forever wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan, nor distracted by the seeming reproachment of the February 2014 Sochi Olympics, the USA might not have been blind to Russia's plans.
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Do you have more data?
Thumpalumpacus
Major
The Ukrainian advance into Russia's Kursk region has so far failed to achieve one of its main objectives: diverting Russian troops from the front lines of eastern Ukraine in a bid to reshape the battlefield.
Ukraine's surprise August incursion has achieved other goals, including dealing a blow to Russia's image of strength, destroying military assets and taking territory and prisoners for negotiating leverage.
But the failure of the more crucial goal to divert troops has opened the door to criticism of Kyiv's military gamble, especially as Russia makes advances along the war's 600-mile eastern front line.
Russian forces have continued pounding away in Ukraine, taking vast swaths of territory in the past month and closing in on the key rail junction town of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.
[...]
George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the Kursk operation was still in its early stages but "looks like it's heading toward a failure."
"The Russians have not diverted significant numbers of forces from the front lines in Ukraine. If anything, they've stepped on the accelerator pedal," he said. "There seems to be a great deal of skepticism about what this incursion is going to accomplish, and I think growing concerns that it was a blunder."
Ukraine's surprise August incursion has achieved other goals, including dealing a blow to Russia's image of strength, destroying military assets and taking territory and prisoners for negotiating leverage.
But the failure of the more crucial goal to divert troops has opened the door to criticism of Kyiv's military gamble, especially as Russia makes advances along the war's 600-mile eastern front line.
Russian forces have continued pounding away in Ukraine, taking vast swaths of territory in the past month and closing in on the key rail junction town of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.
[...]
George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the Kursk operation was still in its early stages but "looks like it's heading toward a failure."
"The Russians have not diverted significant numbers of forces from the front lines in Ukraine. If anything, they've stepped on the accelerator pedal," he said. "There seems to be a great deal of skepticism about what this incursion is going to accomplish, and I think growing concerns that it was a blunder."
''...The meeting comes after Russia used two ballistic missiles to target a military academy and nearby hospital this week in Ukraine, killing more than 50 people and wounding over 270 others, in one of the deadliest strikes of the war.
"Air defense systems and missiles are needed in Ukraine, not in a warehouse somewhere," Zelenskyy said on his Telegram channel this week. "Long-range strikes that can protect us from Russian terror are needed now...''
"Air defense systems and missiles are needed in Ukraine, not in a warehouse somewhere," Zelenskyy said on his Telegram channel this week. "Long-range strikes that can protect us from Russian terror are needed now...''
