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Let's assume Britain, France, Germany and the other pro-Ukraine Europeans take the gloves off and go full on unlimited support to Zelenskyy. What more can they give between now and say Nov 2025 when the Rasputitsa begins? More artillery, rockets and guided bombs? How many are left to spare? Leopard, Challenger and LeClerc tanks?
[...] then if all the non US and Bulgarian members of NATO dropped out of NATO (because while in NATO Trump and/or Bulgaria can veto any NATO action) [...]
You've lost me on Bulgaria.If Russia is such dire straights as so many think then if all the non US and Bulgarian members of NATO dropped out of NATO (because while in NATO Trump and/or Bulgaria can veto any NATO action) and form a new ??TO excluding both the US and Bulgaria but including Ukraine this will be a major world power block far stronger than the current Russia.
They would have the combined political and military power to dictate a ceasefire and the total Russian withdrawal from Ukraine and include the condition that if Putin violates the ceasefire he is up against the whole of the new ??TO. Obviously Canada would like to remain a member and countries like Australia would probably want to join as there is a lot of money to be made rebuilding Ukraine and Ukraine would obviously be supportive of ??TO member investments and be totally rejecting all investments by the US and other non supportive nations.
You've lost me on Bulgaria.
They are fully behind Ukraine - are you perhaps thinking of Hungary?
Let's assume Britain, France, Germany and the other pro-Ukraine Europeans take the gloves off and go full on unlimited support to Zelenskyy. What more can they give between now and say Nov 2025 when the Rasputitsa begins? More artillery, rockets and guided bombs? How many are left to spare? Leopard, Challenger and LeClerc tanks?
I bet that during WW2 no one could have predicted just how enormous the British and US manufacturing capacity would become; you cannot predict how each European country or indeed the rest of the world might rise to the occasion when pressed. Whatever is done, it has to be done without the USA because that door has been shut. The world starts with negotiation, discussion, alignment, discourse, agreement, then it acts.
It is already happening across Europe and elsewhere by European companies.All very good questions. I don't think I have the info to answer them, but they are very pertinent points and hopefully the Europeans follow up their summit with concrete discussion complete with numbers. My guess would be that they can fill in for ammunition but have problems with heavy equipment not already under build.
They could ramp up production of tanks/planes/arty, but that will take a couple of years would be my guess, between building factories, training workforces, assembling materials, and so on. Bear in mind America had to do this as well in 2022-23.
Happening to us all my friend !Wow - two senior moments in one post - I must be getting old as well as exhausted.
Yes - you are right and I did mean Hungary.
Thank you.
Thump - you know better, at least in this respect. South Vietnam and Afghanistan 'entrusted' their defense to us. The list is long of future generations of POTUS not upholding previous commitments. We have put covert boots on the ground since Greece either in defending our guy or taking out their guy. Honor was not among the associated attributes of our interventions - other than Korea. It certainly wasn't in Afghanistan recently.This is not American peacemaking. This is an American abdication. We've spent 80 years convincing people to entrust their defense to us, and now this administration has thrown that history out the window.
This is the American administration playing Chamberlain's role of locking the country in question out of negotiations, and then harryingBenes-- er, Zelenskyy -- to accept a deal that was made without Ukraine's participation. Not only is it underhanded, it's also a fool's quest, as it relies upon the cooperation of the hostage to make it work.
At least Z refused to play his assigned role and stood up for his country. Hopefully Europe's vocal support will translate in real effect on the battlefield.
I stay away from politics on this forum, but on the topic of diplomacy and cross border relations, in this Canadian's POV, since vast majority of eligible American voters either abstained or voted for Trump, which is the same thing - they're all MAGA by default. Only those eligible Americans who voted for Harris can look at Washington's abandonment of Ukraine and the siding with dictators over democracies with a clean conscience.There are Americans and there are MAGA politicians. They are not the same. Slava Ukraine.
. . . since vast majority of eligible American voters either abstained or voted for Trump . . .
No worries - we've all been there.Wow - two senior moments in one post - I must be getting old as well as exhausted.
Yes - you are right and I did mean Hungary.
Thank you.
Why weren't you vocal when we vanished in Afghanistan - which arguably was the 'worst ever' in context of US lives left behind and massive arms dump including C-30s and Apache's much less 70,000 vehicles
Thump - you know better, at least in this respect. South Vietnam and Afghanistan 'entrusted' their defense to us. The list is long of future generations of POTUS not upholding previous commitments. We have put covert boots on the ground since Greece either in defending our guy or taking out their guy. Honor was not among the associated attributes of our interventions - other than Korea. It certainly wasn't in Afghanistan recently.
Trump took steps while in office to provide Ukraine real arms. He also (correctly) warned Germany about NATO and Germany being dependent on Russia for energy needs, correctly foreseeing a possibility that Russia was increasingly untethered economically with respect to Ukraine. He is also steadfastly stating that we will Not put boots on the ground under any conditions. That is a clear message that the steady escalation of US presence via increased sophistication in weapon capability and range will cease. To me it is clear that Zelensky has calculated that by using our weaponry to attack Russia, all the way to Moscow, that he counts on us being there for him in perpetuity. Trump disabused of that last week.
To be clear, I am not particularly fond of Trump's personality but I am 100% behind his vision and execution and demand for transparency and accountability.
Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine 'happened' on other POTUS watch - not his watch. Russian Spetznatz took it in their shorts from US airpower in Syria - unleashed by Trump. Iran was throttled by the sanctions issued by Trump and the Republican Guard took it in the shorts in Iraq - but all those actions vanished with the new guy.
Why weren't you vocal when we vanished in Afghanistan - which arguably was the 'worst ever' in context of US lives left behind and massive arms dump including C-30s and Apache's much less 70,000 vehicles - then cover up the actions and deliberations of the entire chain of command, most recently with a Pardon to Milley. Then to add to the goat fornication, still subsidizing the Taliban via USAID.
To be clear - I have zero love for Russia or Putin. I remember growing up in 40's and 50's and 60's. I remember when I was in Miami during the Cuban missile crisis with my father recently yanked back into 'federal service' at Homestead AFB - with 2xF-105s with nukes on 24x7 on the hot alert pad. I grew up with the real threat of nuclear war and see the signs once again.
Russia blinked over Cuba when our armor and mobile infantry began arriving in Mobile for loading and preparation to invade and they realized we were committed to taking Cuba - independent of the nuclear exchange probability. After that we went back to proxy war biz.
I have also studied the Bear over time and believe the mantra - NATO bordering Russia is an existential threat that will not lead to ' only limited war'. That is the Boundary Condition of any and ALL discussions to avert a nuclear 'exchange'. NATO or US boots on the ground as 'peacekeepers' is putting lipstick on a pig.
There is only one solution that I see, namely Putin dies from a mysterious virus that leads back to China. In Putin you have the drive for re-establishing the Russian Empire of old. I am uncertain regarding his acolytes and whether they share his vision and/or leadership. He is the key - not Zelensky.
Be explicit, are you all in for any succeeding escalation with Russia?
I actually believe there is a point that demands that we must be fully prepared to accept unlimited war (and MAD) as a potential outcome - but this goat fornication is not it. Russia attacking Poland or Germany would be the trigger and Trump would honor the US obligation IMO. But that would occur only if Putin, like Khruschev, calculates that we (all of NATO) don't have the will.
This is a real question - have the NATO countries collectively put maximum sanctions and economic pressure on Russia and its trading partners? Including sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and China and all other trading partners with Russia?
Final question - what do you propose as next several steps?
Russia blinked over Cuba when our armor and mobile infantry began arriving in Mobile for loading and preparation to invade and they realized we were committed to taking Cuba - independent of the nuclear exchange probability. After that we went back to proxy war biz.
NATO bordering Russia is an existential threat that will not lead to ' only limited war'.
Russia attacking Poland or Germany would be the trigger and Trump would honor the US obligation IMO.
Trump's support comes the from the nearly 68% of eligible American who either voted for him (32%) or couldn't GAF either way so skipped the vote (36%). We Canadians are increasingly staying away from US travel both out of reaction to Washington's threats of tariffs and annexation, but also because we're concerned about how we'll be received by the 68% who brough this circumstance about. These 68% of Americans have abandoned Ukraine, the USA's allies, trading partners and friends, the free and democratic world, and sided with dictators and turned US foreign policy into a volatile transactional marketplace where you'll deal with anyone, no matter who they are, what they do or what they stand for, provided there is short-term gain. Those 68% of Americans had the power in their hands to take a different direction, this is on them.Not to get too political or pedantic, but Trump only won by about 3% of the popular voting.
Those 68% of Americans had the power in their hands to take a different direction, this is on them.