Covid-19 reports

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Vincenzo

Vincenzo

Senior Master Sergeant
3,059
484
Dec 24, 2007
Ciociaria
Italy report 18th October, weekly changes
cases 414,241, +59,291, deaths 36,543 +377, recovered 251,461, +11,752, active cases 126,237, +47,162, tests 13,540,582, +975,869, people tested 8,199,744, +607,334
fatality rate 8.8% (-1.4)
mortality rate 606 per million (+6)
test rate 224.5 per thousand (+16.2)
positive rate 5.1% (+0.4)
test rate this week 16,179 per million (+3,237)
positive rate this week 9.8% (+3.6)
new case rate this week 983 per million (+492)

the total cases in my town are now 29, of which 14 in a asylum seeker house (all active now)
 
In today report 21,273 new cases in Italy, around 3 times the first wave peak
also if the actually peak in the first wave probably was more around 30,000 and not the ~6,500 found

my town count was wrong we are at 22 total cases, there was a misunderstand with the asylum seeker the 7 are now negative was go out as new 7 positive
actually we have 5 active cases of which one in ICU

p.s. from tomorow we are, all Italy, in near lock down phase, in the first wave we get this situation only few days and after we gone in lock down
 
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Italy report 25th October, weekly changes
cases 525,782, +111,541, deaths 37,338 +795, recovered 266,203, +14,742, active cases 222,241, +96,004, tests 14,654,002, +1,113,420, people tested 8,890,656, +690,912
fatality rate 7.1% (-1.7)
mortality rate 619 per million (+13)
test rate 242.9 per thousand (+18.4)
positive rate 5.9% (+0.8)
test rate this week 18,459 per million (+2,280)
positive rate this week 16.1% (+6.3)
new case rate this week 1,849 per million (+866)

the high positive rate of last week, is not good, probably the test capability is not enough for the needs
 
Minnesota report, October 29
total cases 142,311(+2,849), total recovered 124,379, total hospitalized 9,991/2,642(694/173)*, total deaths 2,419(+32), total tests 2,770,450**(+27,769)
fatality rate 1.7%
mortality rate 424.4 per million
test rate 486 per thousand
positive rate 7.2%

*The current cases hospitalized and in ICU.
**This number is the total number of tests that have been processed.

Addition to the Minnesota report

The height of the 'first wave' in Minnesota occurred in the end of May, when we saw just over 600 people hospitalized with COVID-19, of which about 240 were in ICU. The highest number of deaths in one day was 35. The highest number of newly confirmed cases up to that point in time was about 950 in one day. After the end of May the numbers gradually tapered off to about 50% of the high point, until the beginning of September when the current spike's upward trend started.

Based on the hospitalization and ICU numbers above it appears that Minnesota is doing fairly well in terms of preparedness and capacity. At this time the only serious problem spots are in the more rural areas, where due to smaller size some of the hospitals are becoming overwhelmed as the virus spreads.
 
Italy report 1st November, weekly changes
cases 709,335, +183,553, deaths 38,826 +1,488, recovered 292,380, +26,177, active cases 378,129, +155,888, tests 15,967,918, +1,313,916, people tested 9,695,940, +805,284
fatality rate 5.5% (-1.6)
mortality rate 644 per million (+25)
test rate 264.7 per thousand (+21.8)
positive rate 7.3% (+1.4)
test rate this week 21,784 per million (+3,325)
positive rate this week 22.8% (+6.7)
new case rate this week 3,043 per million (+1,194)

my town is to 35 total cases
 
Italy report 8th November, weekly changes
cases 935,104, +225,769, deaths 41,394 +2,568, recovered 335,074, +42,604, active cases 558,129, +180,507, tests 17,374,713, +1,406,795, people tested 10,547,046, +851,106
fatality rate 4.4% (-1.1)
mortality rate 686 per million (+42)
test rate 288.1per thousand (+23.4)
positive rate 8.9% (+1.6)
test rate this week 23,323 per million (+1,539)
positive rate this week 26.5% (+3.7)
new case rate this week 3,743 per million (+700)

in heavy hit area, they start to test only symptomatic

my town is to 53 total cases
 
Italy report 15th November, weekly changes
cases 1,178,529, +243,425, deaths 45,229 +3,835, recovered 420,810, +85,736, active cases 712,490, +154,361*, tests 18,878,386, +1,503,673, people tested 11,416,172, +869,126
* first time growth go down in the 2nd wave
fatality rate 3.8% (-0.6)
mortality rate 750 per million (+64)
test rate 313 per thousand (+24.9)
positive rate 10.3% (+1.4)
test rate this week 24,930 per million (+1,607)
positive rate this week 28% (+1.5)
new case rate this week 4,036 per million (+293)

my town is to 64 total cases, we get also a 3rd death
 
Minnesota report, November 19

total cases 249,906(+7,877), total recovered 198,365, total hospitalized 14,171/3,346(1,384/367)*, total deaths 3,082(+72), total tests 3,534,745**/***(+54,514)
fatality rate 1.2%
mortality rate 540.7 per million
test rate 620 per thousand
positive rate 7.1%

*The current cases hospitalized and in ICU. Note that these numbers have ~doubled in the last 20 days, and the averaged daily number of new deaths has more than doubled in the last few days (the large group of new cases have been ill long enough that they are starting to die in proportionately large numbers).
**This number is the total number of tests that have been processed.
***The actual total number of individuals that have received 1 or more tests is 2,223,137.

Addition to the Minnesota report.

As I mentioned up-thread on October 29th, the hospitals and healthcare systems in the more rural areas of Minnesota were beginning to have serious problems.

I found out a couple of days ago that my home town has had some very serious issues. There is only one nursing home in my home town, with a total of about 45 residents. As of the first week of November ALL of the residents tested positive for COVID-19. Since then 8 have died, with 8 listed as critical - 4 of them currently on ventilators. The situation became so bad that members of the residents' families were contacted and asked/told to come in and help take care of their loved ones. A friend of my sister was one of the people contacted, to help take care of her mother. When she arrived at the nursing home she found that there were only 2 health care workers available on second and third shift, with 3 available during 1st shift. The normal staffing is 8-10/6/4 for 1st/2nd/3rd shift. This shortage is due to a combination of factors, ie the workers being exposed to COVID and isolating, being ill themselves with COVID, having to take care of their own family members who have contracted COVID, and an unavailability of skilled people capable of working in the current environment. When her mother's health started to go downhill, my sister's friend took her mother to the local area hospital where she was turned away by the hospital staff. They had no beds available in ICU or the COVID isolation and treatment ward - due to some of the same reasons that existed at the nursing home - plus treatment in an isolation environment was not possible and there was too great a risk of the virus spreading among the other non-COVID hospital patients. Her mother died a couple of days later at their home. During the second week of taking care of her mother, my sister's friend also contracted COVID. My sister has been unable to contact her friend for about a week now.

Unfortunately, although Minnesota's ratio of the total number of hospital beds to the number of serious COVIC-19 cases is still not too bad, the events described above are becoming more common in the rural areas. Even a numerically small number of active cases can overwhelm a local healthcare system.

We are currently entering a second severe lockdown by order of the Minnesota Governor, with the hope that the restrictions will help reduce the rate of spread to a more manageable level. There is not going to be a literal stay-at-home/shelter-in-place order, but all indoor entertainment businesses are to close, all indoor/outdoor dining businesses (including bars) are to close, etc. Most workplaces will remain open as long as they obey the social distancing and workplace health safety guidelines already in effect. Any social gatherings (indoor or outdoor) are banned (ie no parties) for anyone not members of the same family, except events such as wedding ceremonies and funerals (and similar) as long as social distancing and the number restrictions (ie how many people may be present in the venue) are observed. Outdoor activities and exercise are still allowed as long as all present are members of the same family (ie no frat parties, no friendly get-together football keggers, no neighborhood barbecues, etc). Even large family get-togethers (such as Thanksgiving dinner) are frowned upon, although there will be no legal repercussions as long as those present are members of the same family.
 
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Italy report, 22th November, weekly changes
cases 1,408,868, +230,339*, deaths 49,823 +4,594, recovered 553,098, +132,288, active cases 805,947, +93,457**, tests 20,388,576, +1,510,190, people tested 12,225,850, +809,678
* first time growth go down in the 2nd wave ** 2nd week of growth go down
fatality rate 3.5% (-0.3)
mortality rate 826 per million (+76)
test rate 338 per thousand (+25)
positive rate 11.5% (+1.2)
test rate this week 25,038 per million (+78)
positive rate this week 28.4% (+0.4)
new case rate this week 3,819 per million (-217)

my town is to 67 total cases, 13 active
 
Hey Vincenzo,

May I ask what the population of your town is? You may have said in the other thread but I do not remember.
 
Some sanity from the UK and England. First, some current statistics on the NHS.

Hospital bed occupancy for the beginning of this month was actually lower than the five-year average for November.
Data from November 5, the most recent date on record, showed the number of beds occupied in England were 113,474, compared to the higher 114,767 on the same day last year.

The number of people in ICU beds is also currently lower than normal for this time of year, with approximately 70 per cent currently full, compared to 80 per cent in previous years.
Many hospitals are under pressure from another influx of coronavirus patients, but this is not the case in all UK hospitals and they are not at full capacity. Only 13 per cent of beds in NHS hospitals are filled with Covid-19 patients. Covid-19 patients account for around 10 per cent of general and acute beds in hospitals. But, there are still more than 13,000 beds available. Of course many routine procedures which might take up beds are being postponed. In the first lockdown referral for cancer screening and treatment fell by 2,700 per week! At what cost to those people?

Whose dying?
Out of the 37,796 deaths in NHS England hospitals up to November 20, 35,806, near enough 95% had underlying conditions. There have been only 42 deaths of people under the age of 40 who didn't have underlying health problems. More than half of those who died in England, 53.7%, were over the age of 80.

What about overall mortality?
Compared to the five-year average of deaths, the current numbers show we are relatively in line with that. Deaths per week spiked earlier this year during the 'first wave' as the virus took hold and we saw a huge difference compared to the average. But now it is roughly the same, with deaths running up to November 10 recorded at 10,887, and the five-year average for the same period at 10,861. We might expect deaths to spike in normal years as we get into winter and the flu season but of course measures to mitigate Covis-19 also mitigate the seasonal flu.

The second limited lockdown has reduced infection rates to the point that the famous coronavirus 'R' number now estimated nationally at between 1.0 and 1.1
 
stona the ICU beds available are the same of the last year?
in Italy the ICU beds go up to around one thousand and are growing, also if a very low rate
 
We are well and truly in the shit.

Capture.JPG
 
We are almost at 100% ICU capacity where I live. Health officials also announced in my area that they do not have the staff to even treat everyone coming into the hospital.

When will people finally get it, and start doing what we need to do? Nov. 3 past, and the virus did not magically disappear... ;)
 
The reason that we have those reasonable figures in the UK is because of the measures that have been taken to mitigate the worst effects.
No sane person would argue against the lockdown earlier this year when we were dealing with a new virus and a burgeoning pandemic about which the so called experts were largely guessing, based on data from a previous and different pandemic 100 years ago. Some of the United States are reaping what they sowed, and in some cases continue to sow.
We are far better informed now. We know who the vulnerable are and we know that for younger people the risk of death or serious illness is slight if not negligible. Project fear did its job almost too well at the beginning of the pandemic and some of it is only now being undone in the face of hard data. That data is summed up in the number 42. That's how many of the 55,000 dead were aged under forty with apparently no underlying health conditions.
The discussion opening up at the moment is about targeting protection at those who need it. Nobody is suggesting throwing the elderly or otherwise vulnerable people under a bus, but there is a discussion to be had about whether repeated lockdowns, stalling the economy and quarantining millions of healthy (and productive) people is the way to do it.
 
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