If Italy is neutral what does its air force look like by Sept 1942

[Admiral Beez]

Fascist Italy's economy and management was always on a dodgy standing, so with no war what does the Regia Aeronautica look like three years after war between Britain/France and Germany began? Are the Italians capable of rationalizing design and production to a few good aircraft types? If Italy is trading agricultural, minerals and finished goods to Germany they may still have access to German aero engines.

 

[yulzari]

Fascist Italy's economy and management was always on a dodgy standing, so with no war what does the Regia Aeronautica look like three years after war between Britain/France and Germany began? Are the Italians capable of rationalizing design and production to a few good aircraft types? If Italy is trading agricultural, minerals and finished goods to Germany they may still have access to German aero engines.

Well the Regianne factory will have the British order for 300 Re2000 to help with their funding, as will Caproni for their Ca313. A touch OT but the Royal Navy orders for MGB and MTB engines will bring in some further money.

Re2000s and Ca313s for Malaya and Burma?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Re2000s and Ca313s for Malaya and Burma?

There's also the need to deter Japanese forces that may approach Italy's Indian Ocean and Red Sea territories, especially if Japan gets a foothold on Madagascar. Italy may be neutral, but the world is fighting itself on all fronts, so there's aways an opportunity for a clash. Italy will need to be prepared for when the Soviets tear into Eastern Europe in 1944-45.

 

[Howard Gibson]

Fascist Italy's economy and management was always on a dodgy standing, so with no war what does the Regia Aeronautica look like three years after war between Britain/France and Germany began? Are the Italians capable of rationalizing design and production to a few good aircraft types? If Italy is trading agricultural, minerals and finished goods to Germany they may still have access to German aero engines.

Does Italy stay out of the war completely, or does it wait until it is ready in 1943? This question probably is moot, since by 1943, the Russians will have won the battle of Kursk, the Americans will have joined the war, and it will be obvious how it all will be turning out.

The Italians can replace their biplanes with monoplanes. Maybe the DB601 powered Fiat CR42B looks like a good idea! Neutral Sweden was allowed to manufacture DB605 engines under license, so the Italians can manufacture DB601s and DB605s, as they did during the real war. Lacking combat experience, they may make some poor design decisions, like the CR42B.

Manufacturing under license did not cost the Germans anything. Maybe the Italians can earn some cash selling engines to the Germans!

The war in the Mediterranean was a complete disaster for the Germans. When Mussolini got his ass kicked in Greece and Egypt, Hitler should have left him there. The Greeks, and the British forces in Egypt were no threat to the German empire. They probably were not a threat to Italy. Both the British and the Americans learned to fight the Wehrmacht in the Sahara desert. A significant chunk of German and Italian logistics wound up at the bottom of the Mediterranean, thanks to Fairey Swordfish and Bristol Beaufighters operating out of Malta. There is no way Rommel was reaching the Suez canal, or any oil fields.

Consider what happens if the Americans responsible for the Kasserine Pass are in command at Omaha beach.

If the Americans are concerned about their lack of combat experience, how do they get it? Is it worthwhile and feasible to ship an American army eastwards across the Soviet Union to Stalingrad and Kursk? Can a British army reach Murmansk?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Does Italy stay out of the war completely, or does it wait until it is ready in 1943? This question probably is moot, since by 1943, the Russians will have won the battle of Kursk, the Americans will have joined the war, and it will be obvious how it all will be turning out.

Perhaps not completely, and which side Italy falls on is up for question. There will be pressure to allow US-British forces into Italy to get at Germany's soft underbelly, and there will be pressure to send German forces into Italy to deter that from happening, and a full scale German invasion of Italy if it does.

The war in the Mediterranean was a complete disaster for the Germans.

If the Germans stay out of the MTO and North Africa, can they make an earlier and perhaps better go at Barbarossa? I still say it's doomed. The Brits will be able to transport oil and materials, and use the Suez Canal across the MTO with worry, beyond U-Boats.

 

[Howard Gibson]

Perhaps not completely, and which side Italy falls on is up for question. There will be pressure to allow US-British forces into Italy to get at Germany's soft underbelly, and there will be pressure to send German forces into Italy to deter that from happening, and a full scale German invasion of Italy if it does.

If you invade Italy and march north, at some point you climbing up one side of a mountain. If someone ferocious wants to stop you and they are on top of the mountain, you have a very nasty fight on your hands. It gets worse as you continue north up into the Alps. The underbelly was not very soft. The Americans and British reached Germany through northern France.

Would you attack a neutal Italy? They didn't attack Spain.

If the Germans stay out of the MTO and North Africa, can they make an earlier and perhaps better go at Barbarossa? I still say it's doomed. The Brits will be able to transport oil and materials, and use the Suez Canal across the MTO with worry, beyond U-Boats.

Everything they deployed in the MTO would have been available for Barbarossa. The Italians would not have been available. Overall, this ought to be very good for the Germans. The Soviet defense gets tougher, but this may be offset if British and American troops need to reach a battlefield somewhere.

 

[Admiral Beez]

To have stayed out of the fight until Sept 1942, Italy must have thread the diplomatic needle of global affairs every well. I have to think that Mussolini has been replaced with a leader with more sense than bravado.

For example, Italy had a colonial presence in China, Italian concession of Tianjin, with a garrison of about six hundred Italian troops. Following Italy's Sept 1943 surrender to the Allies, in Nov 1943, Japanese forces attacked the Italians in Tianjin. If Italy has not joined the Anti-Comintern Pact in 1937, but remained neutral into 1941, Japan would have presumably acted to seize Italy's territory in China, though this is not guaranteed, as Portugal's neutrality was respected in Macau (but not in Timor).

On the matter or air power, is there anything or any tech Italy could sell to Japan, or vice versa?

 

[Admiral Beez]

The Italians can replace their biplanes with monoplanes. Maybe the DB601 powered Fiat CR42B looks like a good idea!

That might have been the fastest biplane fighter of them all. Some info and pics here.

The FIAT CR.42DB – Pinnacle of the Biplane - Forgotten Aircraft - Military Matters

Italy thought biplanes could be frontline fighters through the first few years of WW2. So they produced the FIAT CR.42DB, pinnacle of the type

militarymatters.online

Also, the FIAT G.50V prototype with improve aerodynamics and a German engine looks interesting.

Fiat G.50 Freccia

During the thirties, Fiat Aviazione was one of the most advanced aircraft manufacturers in Europe. With the advent of new technology at the time, it was obvious that the next stage in the developme…

plane-encyclopedia.com

The G.50 V prototype, powered by a new German engine. Even though this design solved the aerodynamic problems, it was never put into production.

 

[GrauGeist]

The question, though, is would Germany export any DB6xx engines to Italy at all if they remained neutral?

Prior to the start of the European war, Germany was not really forthcoming with their engines to Italy.
This is one of the reasons why the Savoia-Marchetti SM.88 project languished, though later, it was developed into the SM.91 and SM.92 - both of which held promise but the historical timeline saw them cancelled due to Italy wartime situation.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The question, though, is would Germany export any DB6xx engines to Italy at all if they remained neutral?

Interesting point. Perhaps we'll instead see Italy push development of the Fiat A.24, A.30, and even the 16-cylinder A.38 intended for the FIAT G55, originally in a contrarotating design. And then there's the liquid-cooled engines from Isotta Fraschini, including the inverted-V12 Gamma and W18 Asso 750. If given the attention and financing we might have seen something make it to series production.

Would we see consolidation of the aircraft manufacturers? From the mid-1930s onwards we have at least eight firms (Caproni, CANT, Fiat, IMAM, Macchi, Piaggio, Reggiane, Savoia-Marchetti) producing aircraft of the same types alongside each other. In addition to these eight larger firms, there's a group of smaller aircraft producers, such as AVIA, CANSA, CMASA, and SAI Ambrosini. That's a lot of duplicated effort.

 

[Elan Vital]

Wasn't the DB61 license obtained in early 1940 anyway?

It might be worth looking at production programs before June 1940 like Programme R, but I haven't found anything on them.

I guess the advantage insofar as the air force is concerned is that Italy would avoid combat-related attrition and would be in a possibly more convenient economic situation with better access to trade. This would allow it to build up numbers instead of being eaten up in 1941-42, even assuming that aircraft production would be slower in this neutral position than in the war emergency setup of OTL.

 

[Snautzer01]

The question, though, is would Germany export any DB6xx engines to Italy at all if they remained neutral

Why not? The sold bf 109 to a lot of countries, from Swiss to Japan.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I guess the advantage insofar as the air force is concerned is that Italy would avoid combat-related attrition and would be in a possibly more convenient economic situation with better access to trade.

With one of the strongest economies and intact industries around by 1945, if neutral Italy plays it smart (I'm not sure Mussolini has it) they may well be a dominant player in post-war Europe's rebuilding. Especially if the Allies and Axis have spent the war paying for Italian goods with precious gold or silver, resulting a debt-free Italy by 1945. Postwar the Italian air force may see the likes of the Fiat G.80 and Fiat G.91 earlier on.

AIUI, Italy was not overly antisemitic, even during WW2. Perhaps neutral Italy would welcome aircraft designers and rocket scientists of Jewish-descent who would later be persecuted by the Nazis. For example, Marcel Ferdinand Bloch (later Marcel Dassault) was deported to the Buchenwald concentration camp.

 

[Howard Gibson]

The question, though, is would Germany export any DB6xx engines to Italy at all if they remained neutral?

Prior to the start of the European war, Germany was not really forthcoming with their engines to Italy.
This is one of the reasons why the Savoia-Marchetti SM.88 project languished, though later, it was developed into the SM.91 and SM.92 - both of which held promise but the historical timeline saw them cancelled due to Italy wartime situation.

Did the Germans export a significant number of engines to Italy? Most of the Italian V12s were manufactured under license from Daimler Benz. Italy might export engines to Germany.

 

[swampyankee]

With one of the strongest economies and intact industries around by 1945, if Italy plays it smart (I'm not sure Mussolini has it) they may well be a dominant player in post-war Europe's rebuilding. Especially if the Allies and Axis have spent the war paying for Italian goods with precious gold or silver, resulting a debt-free Italy by 1945. Postwar the Italian air force may see the likes of the Fiat G.91 earlier on.

AIUI, Italy was not overly antisemitic, even during WW2. Perhaps neutral Italy would welcome aircraft designers and rocket scientists of Jewish-descent who would later be persecuted by the Nazis. For example, Marcel Ferdinand Bloch (later Marcel Dassault) was deported to the Buchenwald concentration camp.

Until Mussolini signed the pact of steel, there were Jewish members of the fascist councils.

Why not? The sold bf 109 to a lot of countries, from Swiss to Japan.

Selling a complete aircraft isn't the same as selling the complete plans and documentation to manufacture engines.

 

[Snautzer01]

Selling a complete aircraft isn't the same as selling the complete plans and documentation to manufacture engines.

Japan and Italy. And the what about JuMos etc ? And germans copied a few others. Its just business. Is not that the db were the top of the heap.

 

[Zmauky]

Although I am least interested in that part of the story, the issue of license production of DB (or Jumo) engines is primarily a political issue.

Considering the history of relations Italy - Germany (and Mussolini - Hitler) without the entry of Italy on the Axis side - zero points.

Hungarian license production (DB & e 109) started when it ... when Hungary was deeply mired on the German side.

And Italy turned its coat only 25 years earlier, Mussolini blocked the entry of Austria into the union with Germany ... so possibly the sale of finished Me 109 (like Yugoslavia) or minor type like Hs 123 or Do 17 licenses to Yugoslavia or He 112 to Hungary or Japan. But if Mussolini was non-aligned even after 1940, probably not even that.

On the other hand, if Italy did not go to war with Greece and the British were not on the Balkan Peninsula, the question is how things would have developed in Yugoslavia without (as they thought) a safe back.

 

[GrauGeist]

On the other hand, if Italy did not go to war with Greece and the British were not on the Balkan Peninsula, the question is how things would have developed in Yugoslavia without (as they thought) a safe back.

Without Italy, Germany, Hungary and Bulgaria would have still controlled the region.

 

[swampyankee]

A neutral Italy would make the RN's war in the Mediterranean pretty much non-existent, unless Germany attacked into the Balkans or occupied southern France as part of their conquest.

Since neutral Italy isn't an active naval opponent -- and its surface fleet was significantly more powerful than Germany's -- the RN's Mediterranean fleet could be reduced. I'm sure that the Kriegsmarine would appreciate the RN's ability to give them more attention.

 

[Admiral Beez]

A neutral Italy would make the RN's war in the Mediterranean pretty much non-existent...

And where the RN saw so many of its warships and submarines sunk or critically damaged. HMS Barham and Eagle were sunk, as were eight cruisers (HMS Calypso, Gloucester, Bonaventure, Neptune, Galatea, York, Coventry and Manchester), plus HMS Queen Elizabeth, Valiant, Formidable and Victorious were crippled. And what of the French fleet, with a neutral Italy, perhaps more/most of the French fleet would be a Brest and thus able to flee to Britain when France falls.

If German engines cannot be had, could Italy make any use of France's Hispano-Suiza 12Y engines? And if Italian radials can be improved, could Japan make use of them?