By initial I mean the JNAF attacks in central Luzon through Dec 10. There were no encounters between FEAF fighters and JAAF fighters until Dec 12 (Buzz Wagner's lone attack probably against 50th Flying Regiment at Aparri in N Luzon where he claimed several on the ground, none in the air in his initial reports though later he was also credited with aerial victories; the Japanese records for those operations didn't survive, the 50th's CO was quoted in the Japanese official history* as recalling that a single Type 97 was burned on the ground in that attack; the a/c had flown in on the 11th). And the first contact of any kind between FEAF and JAAF was Dec 10 (Type 97's, from Batan Isl between Formosa and Luzon, intercepted B-17, one Type 97 forcelanded; lone P-40 attacked formation of Type 99 Twin Lights, one Type 99 downed and the P-40).Shores counts 72 Type 97 (Ki-27) fighters on Formosa and seems to believe these were the planes that occupied the airfield near Vigan, in Northern Luzon early in the battle. Do you have a source to resolve the discrepency? Not that I think that particular component significantly changes the scale. Just wondering...
When you say "initial" do you mean the first day? One of the enduring myths of the battle seems to be that most of the P-40s were knocked out the first day which according to Edmunds and Shores didn't happen. The losses amounted to about 20-25% (which is still high and not to diminish the nature of the tragedy) mainly the P-40Bs of the 20th and probably spares. But clearly a fair number of P-40s survived the first attacks on the 8th.
So, the PI air campaign divides itself fairly neatly between a short initial period to Dec 10 when a 90 plane Zero force mainly facilitated the neutralization of a FEAF containing a similar number of P-40's (somewhat more in inventory, though somewhat fewer in active squadron strength) and the JAAF and particularly its fighter force was largely irrelevant; then a much longer period where a relatively small remnant of the FEAF fighter force mainly faced JAAF fighters based on Luzon but was mainly serving as recon and light strike a/c and avoiding fighter combat; the remnant of the B-17 force quit the PI for DEI and Australia not long into the campaign as well.
Of course JNAF bombers achieved a lot of the actual destruction Dec 8-10, but could have fared very differently without escorts, or at least it's much more plausible to 'what if' a situation where the FEAF could have 'upped its game' to effectively counter such a/c if unescorted. Even in China in 1937 JNAF Type 96 Land Attack often suffered heavy losses in the initial long range operations beyond the reach of their fighters, to the likes of Chinese Boeing 281's (ie P-26's) and Curtiss Hawk biplanes; and the Type 1 Land Attack's performance wasn't hugely greater, especially considering the P-40's superiority to 1937 Chinese fighters.
The Zero force with its ability to operate over central Luzon directly from Formosa was the key to the swift neutralization of the FEAF, and it's hard IMO to come up with a plausible 'what if' to change that story completely, though better airfield defence, especially passive measures, could have at least stretched out the process. Yet, that Zero force was not significantly, if at all, numerically superior to the modern fighter component of FEAF.
*Sensi Sosho vol 34; in some cases 'Bloody Shambles' co-author Izawa adds info about other periods from other Japanese sources, photo's from other sources too, but for PI campaign virtually every item of Japanese info in Shambles seems to be directly from Senshi Sosho, and SS has a few additional things omitted in Shambles. Also Shambles has a fair number of mistakes and omissions from US side of PI campaign as can be seen from Bartsch's more in-depth books. Still a great book overall of course, Shambles.
Joe
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