The naval attacks on Japan, proper, and minelaying operations by the USAAF have been under-reported as well. I do not know what the food or fuel situation was in Japan, although I suspect both were parlous enough so only the most detached from reality leaders would think anything resembling victory was possible. Combine that with the looming destruction of the IJA at the hands of Soviet troops and Japanese surrender was pretty inevitable. Given that an invasion of Japan's home islands would be preceded by a total blockade and continued bombardment, the question for the emperor and his militaristic thug cronies was whether they'd get to surrender before a massive revolt with large numbers of heads on pikes.