US fighter production. Feasibility to scale up?

[Admiral Beez]

There are three fighters produced in the USA…

Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II A/B/C
Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon
Boeing Douglas F-15E Strike Eagle
Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet

Presumably with the world going to sh#t the Europeans, Canadians and others will want to update their air forces. But this isn't WW2 where car plants can swap over to combat aircraft. What opportunities are there to scale up fighter production?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

The F-15E is not being produced.

 

[cvairwerks]

About the only way you could ramp up current production is to shut down certain civil production lines and transfer all that capability to military production. Right now, the biggest hangup would be engine production. Both Pratt and GE are 18-24 months out on engine delivery or longer. Certain electronic boxes are in the same boat, being 18+ months out for delivery. If one were to allow direct commercial substitution for certain items, you would not really reduce span times. There are COTS items that have been flown without going thru the full qualifying process, but they are few and far between and were very niche items.

 

[EwenS]

The F-15E is not being produced.

No. But the F-15EX Eagle II is.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R46801.pdf

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

No. But the F-15EX Eagle II is.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R46801.pdf

Yes, I know. My office is right above the assembly line. Hence why I said the E Strike Eagle is not.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Yes, I know. My office is right above the assembly line.

How can production be ramped up? Is that a thing nowadays?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Right now, the biggest hangup would be engine production.

Is the commercial shortage of semiconductors an issue?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

How can production be ramped up? Is that a thing nowadays?

I do not work production or the F-15 program, and cannot answer that.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

How can production be ramped up? Is that a thing nowadays?

With the complexity of airframe production and long lead times on certain components, in the short term, no. Now, a production line can be accelerated if "the customer" is willing to give up certain things (paint, interior furnishings, some conversion coatings, some avionics, etc.) that would make the aircraft minimally combat ready. At the end of the day do you want to reduce quality to get the aircraft in the field?

 

[ThomasP]

re "Is the commercial shortage of semiconductors an issue?"

Not yet. The US for example has a strategic stock of the rare earths needed for such electronics. This is not as big a deal as it might seem - the entire world only refines/uses about 130 tons of Germanium each year - so a stock of a few tons is more than enough to supply the military needs for several years. Currently the US supplies all (I think) of its own Germanium.

But if China and/or Russia were to stop supplying Germanium to the rest of the world, there could be problems. Germanium is a fairly plentiful material, with the richer ores found in the areas of major Zinc deposits, but it requires significant processing - and even more processing if the material is to be refined from other sources. Recycling of Germanium has become a reasonable source also.

 

[GrauGeist]

Shasta County (northern California) has rich copper- zinc deposits, which has pockets of Germanium (which is typically found near Zinc) but environmental moratoriums prevent any exploitation of those resources.

 

[cvairwerks]

It's not the raw stock supplies that are causing the problem with chip production, but rather the operation to grow the silicon logs to be sliced into wafers, for the base of the chips. There has been so much consolidation in chip production, that when the largest wafer production facility burned, it crippled production for almost all chip manufacturing. The log production capabilities that are still operating, are simply not able to keep up with needs. Production of the log growth equipment is very limited and is a long lead item. Intel is building a 20 billion dollar log and chip production facility in Ohio, but it won't come online until very late 2023 or early 2024 as of right now.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It's not the raw stock supplies that are causing the problem with chip production, but rather the operation to grow the silicon logs to be sliced into wafers, for the base of the chips. There has been so much consolidation in chip production, that when the largest wafer production facility burned, it crippled production for almost all chip manufacturing. The log production capabilities that are still operating, are simply not able to keep up with needs. Production of the log growth equipment is very limited and is a long lead item. Intel is building a 20 billion dollar log and chip production facility in Ohio, but it won't come online until very late 2023 or early 2024 as of right now.

I saw that in the news. I imagine Intel has received a mountain of cash to expedite that. 2023 is right around the corner still.

 

[DogMan]

It's also getting qualified suppliers to build parts and subassemblies which requires lead-time and planning. Not to mention the shortage of qualified assembly folks and technicians, to a achieve the production of the 80s would take at least 2-3 years. Also, forgot to mention space or building capacity and administrative support buildings, most of our manufacturing from the 80s has shutdown and those spaces have been repurposed as coffee houses, restaurants and housing. Add to that the tree-hugging fools who demand environmental controls and lack of domestic energy production will add years to any type of resuscitation, unless congressional/presidential action is enacted to streamline that process during "wartime" conditions.

 

[Greg Boeser]

Not going to happen with an administration wedded to the Green New Deal. Industrial production - bad. Coffe shops and art galleries - good.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Sigh…

 

[Greg Boeser]

Probably going to get yellow carded for that last post, but the level of regulatory BS is getting out of hand. Our company was recently asked by a customer to verify that we were not engaging in slave labor, and ensuring that our suppliers weren't either.

 

[SaparotRob]

I got the impression that you were the slave labor.

 

[Greg Boeser]

I cannot complain about my compensation package.

 

[SaparotRob]

For he would be severely beaten if he did.