What if, after signing the Munich Agreement, Hitler did not invade Poland until 1944

[davparlr]

I believe Hitler had told his Navy that war would not start until 1944. If this had occurred, what would the world look like in 1944 right before Poland was invaded? How would the German military improve, army, airforce, navy. What would the Allies be doing? preparing, sitting on their hands? Would Japan have attacked Pearl Harbor?

 

[swampyankee]

There are a number of possibilities
1) Hitler gets overthrown. After all, invading Poland was one of his core positions and was a core foreign policy position inherited from Prussia.
2) Poland gets invaded by the USSR. Destroying Poland was one of the core Soviet foreign policy positions inherited from the czar.
3) Poland gets well-prepared for the German invasion. They weren't stupid.

 

[GrauGeist]

Conversely, if Poland was invaded by the Soviets, Hitler could use that as an excuse to attack the Soviet Union, which in turn would create a whole different diplomatic scenario.

 

[Kevin J]

Conversely, if Poland was invaded by the Soviets, Hitler could use that as an excuse to attack the Soviet Union, which in turn would create a whole different diplomatic scenario.

Surely the Soviets would never do such a thing as invading Poland?

 

[Kevin J]

I believe Hitler had told his Navy that war would not start until 1944. If this had occurred, what would the world look like in 1944 right before Poland was invaded? How would the German military improve, army, airforce, navy. What would the Allies be doing? preparing, sitting on their hands? Would Japan have attacked Pearl Harbor?

Perhaps his next move in Poland after the invasion should have been to set up a genuine Polish state and not gone about murdering Polish intellectuals and elites. As a next step, intervention in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to restore their governments. There was nothing in their non aggression Treaty with the USSR which allowed the USSR to physically take them over. Support for a Romanian invasion in the Ukraine to recover their lost territories. Encourage the creation of an independent Ukrainian state in the North West of present day Ukraine. Roll the Soviets back to the Volga and liberate the Caucasus and all their oil. So set limited objectives. Achieve these objectives in 1941. Forget about the encirclement of Leningrad, the march on Moscow. Go purely for economic objectives and gain Allies rather than enemies.

 

[GrauGeist]

Hitler's hatred of the Slavs was only second to the Jews.
I honestly cannot think that he would have realistically worked to their benefit.
Historically, when the Wehrmacht rolled into Russian proper, the troops were met as liberators, showered with flowers and celebrations. Soviet troops defected to the Germans and so on - then the killing began and the Russians (and Ukranians) soon found out that they were terribly mistaken.

NOW, had Hitler been rational, he would have played on the savior angle to his benefit. Feed the peasants, welcome the defectors and watch Stalin's hold on the people crumble...

 

[at6]

Hitler's hatred of the Slavs was only second to the Jews.
I honestly cannot think that he would have realistically worked to their benefit.
Historically, when the Wehrmacht rolled into Russian proper, the troops were met as liberators, showered with flowers and celebrations. Soviet troops defected to the Germans and so on - then the killing began and the Russians (and Ukranians) soon found out that they were terribly mistaken.

NOW, had Hitler been rational, he would have played on the savior angle to his benefit. Feed the peasants, welcome the defectors and watch Stalin's hold on the people crumble...

Plus he would never have targeted the Jews for extermination. The logical thing would have to recruit them into the Wehrmacht with the promise of their own homeland. They would kicked Russsian arse to Hell and back for that hope. Just look how they kicked Arab A$$.

 

[davparlr]

That's not quite what I'm looking for. I am more interested in the military balance of power if Germany had delayed onset of WW2 until Spring of 1944. For example, Germany almost brought England to its knees with 69 uboats in 1939, how many uboats would Germany have in Spring of '44. How long would England hold out against that many uboats. Would England have prepared for this. Also, Germany would have a much stronger Luftwaffe, would they be ready to field squadrons of Me 262s with well trained pilots or would they have relaxed development? etc.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Germany has to start a war. Germany was nearly bankrupt.

 

[pbehn]

That's not quite what I'm looking for. I am more interested in the military balance of power if Germany had delayed onset of WW2 until Spring of 1944. For example, Germany almost brought England to its knees with 69 uboats in 1939, how many uboats would Germany have in Spring of '44. How long would England hold out against that many uboats. Would England have prepared for this. Also, Germany would have a much stronger Luftwaffe, would they be ready to field squadrons of Me 262s with well trained pilots or would they have relaxed development? etc.

Much of Germanys success in 1939-41 was because they "stole a march". Given 4 years more to prepare the UK USA and Canada may have been able to eliminate the U Boat threat more quickly. Same for the war on land.

 

[swampyankee]

Plus he would never have targeted the Jews for extermination. The logical thing would have to recruit them into the Wehrmacht with the promise of their own homeland. They would kicked Russsian arse to Hell and back for that hope. Just look how they kicked Arab A$$.

Had he not targeted the Jews, he would never have received support from the German right. Hitler's antisemitism didn't arise out of whole cloth; it was de rigueur for anti-liberal movements of any sort, whether they were monarchists, czarists, or national socialists (who were no more socialist than, say, Metternich and Czar Nicholas)

 

[GrauGeist]

The historical Allies had plenty of hardware in development, but would have that been as accelerated without war?
Both the U.S. and Britain were operaring with tight purse strings until war broke out.
Same goes for Germany, where they weren't taking many technologies serious until the tide of war was turning against them.
My guess is that the RLM, not being desperate, would have still not taken the Jet program seriously, even by 1944.
Their aircraft manufacturing would have most likely still been a single-shift work week (as was historically) until circumstances became dire.

 

[Dana Bell]

To mis-quote Kenneth Mars in the original The Producers:

"Der Fuhrer loved chilllldred, und muusik, und Danzig...."

Cheers,


Dana

 

[The Basket]

This is butterfly stuff so no idea.

But the RN would match the Kriegsmarine ship for ship so dontcha worry about that.

Would Italy join the war? Dunno
Would Spain be part of the Axis? Dunno
Would France fall in 6 weeks? Dunno
Would USSR invade Germany? Dunno

Would Japan invade the Dutch East Indies? That's a difficult one because it's kinda yes and kinda no. I actually think they would. Really think that. Otherwise it's out of China and Korea and I doubt that's gonna fly.

If Japan goes to War then UK and USA will be at war regardless of what Germany does.

 

[Shortround6]

This assumes the allies do nothing.
The British had ordered the first 20 Hunt class destroyers (escorts) in March/April of 1939.
The first 26 Flower class Corvettes were ordered July 25th 1939.
2 of the Lion Class Battleships were laid down in 1939.
They may have built more Black Swans in a prolonged peace.
These are just a few examples of British rearmament before Germany attacked Poland.

Germany may have been stronger but the British, Americans, and French were also improving their strength even before the shooting started.

 

[MIflyer]

The German invasion of Poland was in fact a joint invasion of Poland by Germany and the USSR. A friend of mine who served in the Polish Army pointed this out to me. The Soviets announced they were entering Poland to help defend against the Germans but in fact grabbed the Eastern part of the country and settled in. Completely aside from their Non-Aggression Pact, the Soviets jointly started WWII with Nazi Germany.

Soon after seizing that part of Poland the Soviets committed the atrocity in the Katryn Forest, which they blamed on the Germans. When the Germans overran that area of Poland they found the mass graves and brought Polish POW doctors to the area to confirm that the deaths predated the German occupation.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The German invasion of Poland was in fact a joint invasion of Poland by Germany and the USSR. A friend of mine who served in the Polish Army pointed this out to me. The Soviets announced they were entering Poland to help defend against the Germans but in fact grabbed the Eastern part of the country and settled in. Completely aside from their Non-Aggression Pact, the Soviets jointly started WWII with Nazi Germany.

Soon after seizing that part of Poland the Soviets committed the atrocity in the Katryn Forest, which they blamed on the Germans. When the Germans overran that area of Poland they found the mass graves and brought Polish POW doctors to the area to confirm that the deaths predated the German occupation.

I always thought it was the greatest hypocrisy that Britain and France guaranteed Poland's security, a security guarantee that did not specifically mention Germany. But did nothing when the Russians invaded.

Anglo-Polish military alliance - Wikipedia

... in the event of any action which clearly threatened Polish independence, and which the Polish Government accordingly considered it vital to resist with their national forces, His Majesty's Government would feel themselves bound at once to lend the Polish Government all support in their power. They have given the Polish Government an assurance to this effect. I may add that the French Government have authorised me to make it plain that they stand in the same position in this matter as do His Majesty's Government.[6]

 

[swampyankee]

I always thought it was the greatest hypocrisy that Britain and France guaranteed Poland's security, a security guarantee that did not specifically mention Germany. But did nothing when the Russians invaded.

Anglo-Polish military alliance - Wikipedia

... in the event of any action which clearly threatened Polish independence, and which the Polish Government accordingly considered it vital to resist with their national forces, His Majesty's Government would feel themselves bound at once to lend the Polish Government all support in their power. They have given the Polish Government an assurance to this effect. I may add that the French Government have authorised me to make it plain that they stand in the same position in this matter as do His Majesty's Government.[6]

I suspect that the Germany, but not the USSR, was considered to be a threat to the UK and France, proper. While both France and the UK cared about Poland, they cared much more about themselves, and the USSR did not pose a military threat to either, despite the hysteria about the bolshevik threat. That was much more an internal security threat and could be dealt with by internal security measures and such horrors as treating employees like human beings with value.

About 25 years before, Germany had shown itself to be the primary threat to peace in Europe and Hitler and the nazis were basing their entire ideology upon being a military threat again.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I suspect that the Germany, but not the USSR, was considered to be a threat to the UK and France, proper.

I agree, but once the Russians marched in, did Britain and France even protest to the Soviet ambassador? In this scenario, if Hitler doesn't invade Poland until 1944, I suggest Stalin already has, and thus triggered the Anglo-French security guarantees. And heck, if it's 1944 and Germany is still at peace I suggest Hitler is gone, so maybe it's Britain-France-Germany vs. the USSR.

 

[swampyankee]

I agree, but once the Russians marched in, did Britain and France even protest to the Soviet ambassador? In this scenario, if Hitler doesn't invade Poland until 1944, I suggest Stalin already has, and thus triggered the Anglo-French security guarantees. And heck, if it's 1944 and Germany is still at peace I suggest Hitler is gone, so maybe it's Britain-France-Germany vs. the USSR.

Did France and the UK even have Soviet ambassadors to whom to complain? France and the UK's acquiescence in the Soviet revanchism in Eastern Europe was a definite moral failure, and may have been one of the strongest encouragements to German aggression. What would have happened had the UK and France actually supported (with modern hardware, at least) Poland when it was invaded in the 1920s?