Which modern nation has highest potential in aerospace?

[Chiron]

Not including US (obvious, with spending of over 400 billions in military....)

Which following nation has biggest potential to develop advanced military aircraft withtout help from outside?

1. Europe (well, with Airbus and traditions of British and German....)

2. Japan (According to current military analysis, without including nuclear force, Japan has the 2nd most technological force in the world. With merely 1% of military spending and its robust economy (my Economic Prof. told me that every 1% growth is equivalent to the ecnomy of Malaysia).

3. China (The most enduring and most technological of all ancient states. In fact, according to January issue of Natioanl Geographic in 2004, Chinese were much advanced in economy and in technology than their comtemporary Roman empire. But it declined in late 17th century, and was helpless against British industrial power. But, Napoleon Bonarparte once said to his follow generals: "Let China sleeps, if she wakes, she will shake the world". China is waking, just like US a centry ago, or Japan 50 years ago, but it is much bigger. Many economists describe current Chinese phenomena is like 2nd industrialization in history)

4. Russia (Despite of its poor economy performance in post Soviet era, it still the 2nd most powerful military force after US (in terms of nuclear capbability).

5. India (the 4th largest economy in terms of PPP---Never been a Superpower like Rome or China in the past, but India is one of the most promised economy in the world. Just look how many NASA has Indian enginners and scientists, I heard its like more than 1/4 of NASA scientists are from India, and best of all they are so cheap in hiring).

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Sweden - Although I think its full potential is hampered by its current military doctrine.

 

[DAVIDICUS]

Your list of candidates for "modern nation" includes four nations and a ... continent. Europe is not a nation but a group of nations.

I will side with the group (safety in numbers you know).

 

[Anonymous]

I'd say the USA clearly has the lead for now.

I think China is might overtake the USA within the next 50 years.

China is a nation to be freared. The USA and Europe and Japan should ally themselves more and more tightly to combat this threat as it grows.

=S=

Lunatic

 

[Chiron]

"I think China is might overtake the USA within the next 50 years."

Funny thing that I found out during my Political Class is that Chinese bureaucrats are real pragmatic in that they are trully know their capability and their limits. For example, when you ask Chinese top government advisors, they would tell you that China will not surpass US (not just economy, health care, enviornment, science and research, and military) until at least a century. Chinese knew that, despite of such enormous growth, the average income in China is merely $1000, whereas US citizen enjoy stunning over $30,000. There are over a billion people in China, and it is certainly not an easy task.

But again, its kind exciting to image a potential rival. With the demise of Soviet Union, China become the next EVIL, BAD guy

Oh, one more thing, US is the sole superpower is not only because of its economy, but its ideology, especially in the form of pop culture. Not just European kids, Japanese youth, but Chinese next generations are crazy and admire American cutlure.

Unless China is able to develop a unique culture tread, that is both influencial and popular across cultures, it will remain a merely a economic powerhouse as Japan did in '80s.

Just look how many Chinese learn English and educate in US.

 

[delcyros]

I would go for US first.
The next one is difficult to answer, Europe is dependent on the US in many ways (should it be therefore excluded?).
Ummm, China looks great but has some enourmeous disadvantages. I doubt that China can overcome the social changes which follow their economic build up. By the way it is still (...and will be for some time) dependent on foreign technology (like their first spacecraft, technology was taken from russian sources).
I think that Russia has still the highest potential in aerospace technology after the US. While it is hampered by it´s economy it could go on for very impressive projects if financed properly.

 

[Nonskimmer]

Interesting KK. How many Chinese citizens have already flocked to the west coast of North America to live, as well?

As for aerospace potential?
Aside from the US, UK, and Russia, all of whom are obvious leaders in this area, I'd say France or Sweden. Both produce domestic designs and continue to develope more. But then in this wacky world of ours, who knows? I've a feeling that one or two of the former Soviet Block countries like Poland or perhaps the Czech Republic may get their fingers in the pie before long. It'll be interesting to see.

 

[Glider]

I would suggest that Europe should be considered as one entity as we have the technology but don't have the economic clout unless we get together.
The USA is obviously the leader but are they in danger of getting to clever for their own good. The F15 has been a great plane one of the best in history but its getting replaced by the Raptor. The F15 was sold to a large number of countries but who are they going to sell a stealth plane to? Isreal, I doubt it as the Arabs would try to stop it. The Arabs, not a chance Isreal would go spare. Europe, why should they when they have the choice of the Eurofighter, Rafael and Grippen to choose from. Also how many raptors are they going to buy.
If the USA isn't careful they are going to neuter themselves and leave the way open for someone else, probably Europe as the Russians lack technology and funding whilst China have other priorities.

 

[Anonymous]

"I think China is might overtake the USA within the next 50 years."

Funny thing that I found out during my Political Class is that Chinese bureaucrats are real pragmatic in that they are trully know their capability and their limits. For example, when you ask Chinese top government advisors, they would tell you that China will not surpass US (not just economy, health care, enviornment, science and research, and military) until at least a century. Chinese knew that, despite of such enormous growth, the average income in China is merely $1000, whereas US citizen enjoy stunning over $30,000. There are over a billion people in China, and it is certainly not an easy task.

But again, its kind exciting to image a potential rival. With the demise of Soviet Union, China become the next EVIL, BAD guy

Oh, one more thing, US is the sole superpower is not only because of its economy, but its ideology, especially in the form of pop culture. Not just European kids, Japanese youth, but Chinese next generations are crazy and admire American cutlure.

Unless China is able to develop a unique culture tread, that is both influencial and popular across cultures, it will remain a merely a economic powerhouse as Japan did in '80s.

Just look how many Chinese learn English and educate in US.

Overtaking all aspects of the US economy might well take China 100 or more years. But overtaking in areospace, particularly in space, might well take less time. China is certainly going to focus its resources in this area. While it is true that 60+ % of their population may be well below the standards of living of the American population in 50 years, they could still have more people living at a higher standard than that of the average American or European by that time.

=S=

Lunatic

 

[Anonymous]

I would suggest that Europe should be considered as one entity as we have the technology but don't have the economic clout unless we get together.
The USA is obviously the leader but are they in danger of getting to clever for their own good. The F15 has been a great plane one of the best in history but its getting replaced by the Raptor. The F15 was sold to a large number of countries but who are they going to sell a stealth plane to? Isreal, I doubt it as the Arabs would try to stop it. The Arabs, not a chance Isreal would go spare. Europe, why should they when they have the choice of the Eurofighter, Rafael and Grippen to choose from. Also how many raptors are they going to buy.
If the USA isn't careful they are going to neuter themselves and leave the way open for someone else, probably Europe as the Russians lack technology and funding whilst China have other priorities.

The USA will not sell the Raptor to anyone. It is for our use and our use alone. The JST may well be sold to other closely allied nations.

As for what we will sell? Hmmm... F-15's, F-16's, etc... they are still potent weapons systems.

The Eurofighter, Rafael, and Grippen all fall almost without a fight to the Raptor. And as the agressor, they have little if any advantage over the current existing foes they might face. Supercruise is great for the agressor, but it is unimportant to the defender.

=S=

Lunatic

 

[Chiron]

"Overtaking all aspects of the US economy might well take China 100 or more years. But overtaking in areospace, particularly in space, might well take less time. China is certainly going to focus its resources in this area. While it is true that 60+ % of their population may be well below the standards of living of the American population in 50 years, they could still have more people living at a higher standard than that of the average American or European by that time. "

True. Chinese are knowing their limits in R&D and understands that they are incapable of competing with US especailly in military technology. Thus, they try to focus on seletive and strategic military developments. In other words, they spend large porton of money on ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and the accuracy of missile warheads. It is in these areas that put China in the forefront of aerospace as well as most dangerous foe. I believe US has realized and admited they are unable to intercept the current Chinese missiles. And one of the well know hypothesis in US military is that PLA would first use overwhelming shorge range and middle range ballistic missliles and supersonic cruise missiles (Russia made SSN-22 SUN-BURN Supersoic cruise missiles were designed to cripple the American fleets, and US has stated that they are incapbale of dealing with this threat in the course of naval battles) to devastate the 7th fleet, and and any other military bases in Pacific region before sending much inferior air force, naval fleet and most imporatntly their amphibious army in the event of recapturing Taiwan.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

The JST may well be sold to other closely allied nations.

The JSF now known as the F-35 has the following countries participating as team members:

United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, Canada, Denmark and Norway.

More than likely these countries will either purchase F-35s and/ or build components.

 

[Chiron]

Is F-22 superior to F-35? It seems to me F-35 can do more stuffs that F-22 can not, such as STOL (correct me if i am wrong).

But, its like comparison between F-15 and F-16..........each carries different purpose and missions.

 

[delcyros]

I am wondering about these new jet projects, since they are outdated even now. Raptor, Eurofighter, Gripen, Mig IM, that has no future anymore. With an that quickly developing technology in autonomously guidiances the future belongs to drones. Without need to support pilot controll you can design a plane more stealthy, cheaper, MUCH MORE manouverable, more powerful or smaller. They are also more potential to reach the edge of space. Too much advantages in my eyes. The US, europe, russia and even Israel have recognized it. A technology race in this field can bring very different leaders in short time, who knows?

 

[FLYBOYJ]

I knew a lot of people who worked on the Lockheed JSF and the rumor had it that it performed so well the Raptor program office was worried that they were going to look bad. In actuality they have 2 different roles, but I think the F-35 is going to be the better aircraft.

 

[Glider]

Delcryos
I have one concern about drones and thats jamming. History is full of examples when one side deveops something for the other side to come up with a coutermeasure a few months later. To depend on a drone that can be jammed leaves you wide open. Certainly they have their uses and will play an important and growing role but I wouldn't be quite so quick to write them off the manned plane. A strictly automatic drone that doesn't need any control from the ground is an inflexable beast and could work out very expensive.
FJ
Re the modern fighters, the F22 is normally accepted to be the best but as we all seem to agree with limited sales oppertunities. The F35 is seen more as a general purpose plane at least in the UK with the Typhoon as the fighter. There is room for both but I believe that for the first time in at least three decades the USA don't have the worlds best fighter available for sale to almost any other country. We didn't have a real alternative to the F15 and F16, we said we did, but not really but now we do. The JSF will sell to a number of countries of course it will but not in the numbers the USA sold say the F16.
If you have ever seen the Grippen you will know what I mean, its puts up a stunning display and has already sold to a few countries. Plus of course, Europe has other options in the Rafael and Eurofighter.
Other evidence. The Indian Air Force bought Mig 31's put the best avionics they could find in the West and beat the American F15's in a recent red flag excercise. Times are a changing.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

The Indian Air Force bought Mig 31's put the best avionics they could find in the West and beat the American F15's in a recent red flag excercise. Times are a changing.

When that exercise went down I understand that the IAF basically ignored the "hard deck" and did other things that were considered very dangerous by the visiting US Pilots. At the same time I heard that many in the Pentagon are perceiving the exercise as a "wake up call." I even heard that the folks who flew that exercise did poorly on purpose for political reasons. Comments?!?

 

[Glider]

FJ Comments as follows
The Indian Airforce is very professional unit, its experienced and their pilots are as good as the best in the world. As an example, in the UK we have the Empire Test Pilot training scheme which is attended by pilots from around the world, including some from the USN. As the name implies it trains test pilots so you do get the best of the best, as the saying goes.
Certainly five years ago the record pass marks for both the fixed wing and rotary branches are both held by Indian Airforce pilots. I do not believe for one second that the Indian airforce would have behaved in a dangerous manner.
Indeed if there is one comment about the Indian culture is that they do tend to follow rules. I have worked with people from India in both the Navy and in civilian life so have seen this in action, and found it frustrating at times.

As for the wake up call. That would be a political thing and I wouldn't trust any politician as far as I could throw them, so that is more likely. The questions would be why pick on India? If the USA want to make a point why not point out the the Eurofighter can out perform the F15 and the F35, which it can?
Do you really believe that aggessive USAF pilots would have just accepted an order to throw a fight?
Have we seen any evidence behind these accusations?
Why hasn't anything leaked out?

Remember the shock that was felt when it was realised that the Mig29 had a sight mounted on the helmet allowing their pilots to have a much greater firing envelope. This meant that they could take on the F16 at the time on an equal footing. It is possible for the USA to be beaten at its own game.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

FJ Comments as follows
The Indian Airforce is very professional unit, its experienced and their pilots are as good as the best in the world. As an example, in the UK we have the Empire Test Pilot training scheme which is attended by pilots from around the world, including some from the USN. As the name implies it trains test pilots so you do get the best of the best, as the saying goes.
Certainly five years ago the record pass marks for both the fixed wing and rotary branches are both held by Indian Airforce pilots. I do not believe for one second that the Indian airforce would have behaved in a dangerous manner.
Indeed if there is one comment about the Indian culture is that they do tend to follow rules. I have worked with people from India in both the Navy and in civilian life so have seen this in action, and found it frustrating at times.

As for the wake up call. That would be a political thing and I wouldn't trust any politician as far as I could throw them, so that is more likely. The questions would be why pick on India? If the USA want to make a point why not point out the the Eurofighter can out perform the F15 and the F35, which it can?
Do you really believe that aggessive USAF pilots would have just accepted an order to throw a fight?
Have we seen any evidence behind these accusations?
Why hasn't anything leaked out?

Remember the shock that was felt when it was realised that the Mig29 had a sight mounted on the helmet allowing their pilots to have a much greater firing envelope. This meant that they could take on the F16 at the time on an equal footing. It is possible for the USA to be beaten at its own game.

Great perspective Glider, I heard these "rumors" at work (I work at an AF base) and I always wondered about their justification, and the take on the Eurofighter in lieu of an exercise with India brings out another angle on this. Perhaps the unit that went over to India "just sucked." ?!?!

As far as the Eurofighter out performing the F-35, I beg to differ, but only time will tell!

 

[Glider]

FJ, I enjoy these debates. As for the F35 and the Typhoon, I had better be right as we are using the F35 as our strike plane and the Typhoon as the fighter. If the RAF have it the wrong way around, we are wasting a simply huge amount of money.
Remember the unit that went to India was on the Indians home territory and you can bet your last cent they had been practising hard.