The last Chinese naval adventures reminded me of the Russian Navy and Border Guard (the branch of FSB) evolving behaviour in the recent past.
They remind me of pre-ww1 Germany, where I see similarities between Kaiser Wilhelm II's Germany before World War I and Xi Jinping's China of the 2020s. I see both of them ignoring the advice of their industrial leaders to focus on trade, and instead pursuing their nations' "place in the sun", and building colonies and expanding their navies in ways that needlessly antagonize former friends (Britain in Germany's case, the United States in China's) while driving former adversaries closer together (Britain with France and Russia) and the China driving the Philippines to re-open military bases to the U.S.
IMO, China's needless naval arms race with the United States mirrors the Anglo-German naval rivalry of the early 1900s. Just as Britain doubled down on alliances with France and Russia, the U.S. is strengthening ties with Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and now India through
QUAD and AUKUS. And then there's the pursuit of needless colonies. In Germany's case, industrialists like Krupp often warned Wilhelm that antagonizing Britain and pursuing colonies could disrupt trade, but Wilhelm pressed ahead with
Weltpolitik. China's building of artificial islands, installing missile systems, and asserting the
Nine-Dash Line claim has equally antagonized China's neighbors and strong trading partners in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. China's business leaders are voicing similar sentiments to the Kaiser's critics, including Jack Ma, who has said that aggressive "
wolf warrior" diplomacy risk foreign investment and export markets. Predictably, Ma vanished from public view for months in 2021, reportedly under state supervision, until reappearing in a much more subdued form.
Germany did not need a battlefleet in the 1890s and 1900s. It was a growing economic powerhouse with no threats to its maritime trade. The same can be said for China today and the expanding PLAN.