China's Navy seems to be getting a bit bold

[GrauGeist]

They've been encroaching of Japan's territorial waters, too.

Chinese Liaoning Carrier Strike Group Now Operating in the Philippine Sea - USNI News

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Liaoning Carrier Strike Group is now operating in the Philippine Sea, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defense. Meanwhile, a PLAN survey ship entered Japan’s territorial waters on Monday and two Chinese H-6 bombers flew in and out of the Pacific Ocean on...

news.usni.org

 

[EwenS]

This is now a regular feature of PLAN operations. It is at least the 4th time the carrier Liaoning and supporting ships have deployed into the Pacific with the waters between Miyako Jima and Okinawa being the preferred route. April 2021, Dec 2021, May 2022 and now Dec 2022.

Back in Aug 2022 the PLAN deployed both the Liaoning and China's second carrier, Shandong, in separate Task groups as part of their response to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

China Deploys Aircraft Carriers, Prepares Military Drills Near Taiwan Following Pelosi Visit - USNI News

Beijing deployed its two aircraft carriers this week and plans to start a series of live-fire exercises following Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan, Chinese state media reported. Carriers CNS Liaoning (16) and CNS Shandong (17) sortied from their homeports as part of the retaliatory...

news.usni.org

 

[Shinpachi]

Yes, that is 5th time this year.
Their action is based on this and not our business.

1989 USA-USSR JOINT STATEMENT ON THE UNIFORM
INTERPRETATION OF RULES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW
GOVERNING INNOCENT PASSAGE
Adopted in Wyoming, USA on 23 September 1989

Source: https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/u...ernational-Law-Governing-Innocent-Passage.pdf

 

[EwenS]

Here is the Japanese Coast Guard map showing the various limits as defined in the UNCLOS. They "Miyako Strait", which lies between Okinawa to the north east and Miyako Jima to the south west is international waters beyond the 12 mile limit of those Japanese Territories.

Territorial waters - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Japan Coast Guard - Government initiatives｜Office of Policy Planning and Coordination on Territory and Sovereignty

Senkaku Islands, Takeshima and the Northern Territories are inherent parts of Territory of Japan in light of historical facts and based upon international law. The Japanese government has continued to consistently pursue peaceful solutions of these issues through dialogue, in accordance with...

www.cas.go.jp

 

[Admiral Beez]

They've been encroaching of Japan's territorial waters, too.

By 7 Dec 2041 Japan may feel compelled to take preemptive action.

 

[SaparotRob]

This time, we can help Japan find the right targets.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This is now a regular feature of PLAN operations. It is at least the 4th time the carrier Liaoning and supporting ships have deployed

I think it's only a matter of time before a PLAN CSG sails beyond the Indo-Pacific. As I tried to discuss here before hitting a Mod wall.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think it's only a matter of time before a PLAN CSG sails beyond the Indo-Pacific. As I tried to discuss here before hitting a Mod wall.

Of course they will. They're in expansionist mode, and now that the Belt-and-Road Initiative is showing up to be not so successful, they will have to revert to shows of force.

 

[Admiral Beez]

First Atlantic port of call? Equatorial Guinea?

China’s navy seeks Atlantic base in West African nation, report says

China has its eyes on Equatorial Guinea for a new military base, which would give Beijing a new naval foothold in the Atlantic Ocean, according to a media report that comes following long-standing concerns among U.S. military leaders about China’s ambitions in West Africa.

www.stripes.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

Of course they will. They're in expansionist mode, and now that the Belt-and-Road Initiative is showing up to be not so successful, they will have to revert to shows of force.

It would be interesting to see how a PLAN CSG global tour would go. China remembers the 1907-09 Great White Fleet, where the US wanted to show to naval great powers of the day that the USN had arrived. China feels that same way today, with the largest navy in the world, but garnering no respect.

If I were China, I would wait until their carrier, Fujian is fully worked up, likely by end of 2025. Then in summer 2026, the carrier along with a mix of of China's latest Renhai-class and Luyang-class destroyers and at least one Shang-class SSN, plus two or three Fuyu-class fast CSS will set sail for a global cruise. China to Chile and Peru, Panama Canal to Venezuela, then Cuba, followed by Morocco, then St. Petersburg, then around to the Mediterranean to Egypt and Turkey, with single ships entering the Black Sea to visit Georgia and Bulgaria. Finally down the Suez to China's base at Djibouti followed by visits to Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and then a stop at China's new base in the Solomons before home again.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

It would be interesting to see how a PLAN CSG global tour would go. China remembers the 1907-09 Great White Fleet, where the US wanted to show to naval great powers of the day that the USN had arrived. China feels that same way today, with the largest navy in the world, but garnering no respect.

If I were China, I would wait until their carrier, Fujian is fully worked up, likely by end of 2025. Then in summer 2026, the carrier along with a mix of of China's latest Renhai-class and Luyang-class destroyers and at least one Shang-class SSN, plus two or three Fuyu-class fast CSS will set sail for a global cruise. China to Chile and Peru, Panama Canal to Venezuela, then Cuba, followed by Morocco, then St. Petersburg, then around to the Mediterranean to Egypt and Turkey, with single ships entering the Black Sea to visit Georgia and Bulgaria. Finally down the Suez to China's base at Djibouti followed by visits to Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and then a stop at China's new base in the Solomons before home again.

I'm not thinking St Petersburg or the Black Sea will be ports-of-call for what I hope are obvious reasons.

Outside of that, sure, PLAN might organize this trip. Just like the Great White Fleet, I'm not sure what it might show. It'd sure provide a good opportunity to scope out their radio coms through a variety of environments. GWF was less about showing off USN power than sending off obsolete predreadnaughts. China doing this now would be about showing muscle, which I guess is nice if the intimidation really works.

It'd be good training for inexperienced commanders and crew, to be sure. But the only ribbons are won in battle. USN has a little edge in experience there.

 

[EwenS]

It would be interesting to see how a PLAN CSG global tour would go. China remembers the 1907-09 Great White Fleet, where the US wanted to show to naval great powers of the day that the USN had arrived. China feels that same way today, with the largest navy in the world, but garnering no respect.

If I were China, I would wait until their carrier, Fujian is fully worked up, likely by end of 2025. Then in summer 2026, the carrier along with a mix of of China's latest Renhai-class and Luyang-class destroyers and at least one Shang-class SSN, plus two or three Fuyu-class fast CSS will set sail for a global cruise. China to Chile and Peru, Panama Canal to Venezuela, then Cuba, followed by Morocco, then St. Petersburg, then around to the Mediterranean to Egypt and Turkey, with single ships entering the Black Sea to visit Georgia and Bulgaria. Finally down the Suez to China's base at Djibouti followed by visits to Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and then a stop at China's new base in the Solomons before home again.

I very much doubt they will be capable of using the Panama Canal. While the new locks are capable of taking the claimed waterline hull width of Fujian the large overhanging sponsors need taken into account. They would overhang the lock walls and in all probability catch on the sides as the water was pumped in/out. Besides, even if possible, would the Chinese really want to deliver the spying opportunity for western intelligence agencies to get that close? a look at her?

No US supercarrier has used the Panama Canal for the same reason AFAIK. If changing coasts they usually go eastabout via the Med, Suez, IO and Pacific. Occasionally they have used the Straits of Magellan at the foot of South America. The Ronald Reagan did that in 2004 and George Washington did so in 2015. AIUI the navigation is tricky for the 2 day passage via Magellan.

 

[GrauGeist]

While the Chinese Navy is the largest, the bulk of their Navy is coastal patrol boats (about 127).

The USN has the secind largest fleet, but within that fleet are 11 carriers to China's three and keep in mind that the PLAN versus USN number *may* seem superior, but the USN's numbers don't include the US Coast Guard's numbers, which is about 250 ships.

So *technically*, the United States has both the world's largest military fleet and the most powerful Navy.

 

[AOE4]

Will it ever end? I pray so. I served in the 6th fleet 77-81 including patrolling Indian ocean. Same crap different stink, why can't people just get along. Harassed by the soviet military frequently back then.

 

[Admiral Beez]

...why can't people just get along.

Rodey King asked the same. But we haven't had a global war in seventy-eight years. Regional spats aside, I'd say we are for the most part getting along.

That said, humans and their tribalism are always fighting, it's our nature. When we think back to the Pax Britannica, that supposed hundred years of global peace between the end of the Napoleonic War and the beginning of the First World War, the age was actually filled with regional conflicts, such as the US Civil War, the Crimean War, Boer War, War of Greek Independence, Mexican-American War, Spanish-American War, the Russo-Japanese War, a series of South American wars, and perhaps the most impacting upon the first half of the 20th Century; the 1870-71 Franco-German War.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I very much doubt they will be capable of using the Panama Canal.

True, good point. Alrighty. Our PLAN CSG route could be:

1. China to Ecuador (big presence), Peru and Chile
2. Around Cape Horn, visit to Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela
3. Assuming the Ukraine was is over; into the Baltic and St. Petersburg, or through the English Channel and to Murmansk.
4. Morocco to refuel, then Egypt and Turkey, and if the Ukraine war is over; Georgia and Bulgaria
5. Suez to the PLAN base in Djibouti
6. Sri Lanka and Pakistan and Solomons
7. Return to China

I was thinking of how to include the PLAN base in Equatorial Guinea, but given the purpose of this global deployment is to showcase the strength of the PLAN and China, there's no point in showing the flag off Equatorial Guinea.

 

[EwenS]

True, good point. Alrighty. Our PLAN CSG route could be:

1. China to Ecuador (big presence), Peru and Chile
2. Around Cape Horn, visit to Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela
3. Assuming the Ukraine was is over; into the Baltic and St. Petersburg, or through the English Channel and to Murmansk.
4. Morocco to refuel, then Egypt and Turkey, and if the Ukraine war is over; Georgia and Bulgaria
5. Suez to the PLAN base in Djibouti
6. Sri Lanka and Pakistan and Solomons
7. Return to China

I was thinking of how to include the PLAN base in Equatorial Guinea, but given the purpose of this global deployment is to showcase the strength of the PLAN and China, there's no point in showing the flag off Equatorial Guinea.

The carrier is not going into the Black Sea under any circumstances. It would exceed the tonnage limits for non-Black Sea entering that Sea under the terms of the Montreaux Convention. They could detach smaller vessels to do that.

https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1936-Convention-Regarding-the-Regime-of-the-Straits-1.pdf

 

[Admiral Beez]

The carrier is not going into the Black Sea under any circumstances. It would exceed the tonnage limits for non-Black Sea entering that Sea under the terms of the Montreaux Convention. They could detach smaller vessels to do that.

https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1936-Convention-Regarding-the-Regime-of-the-Straits-1.pdf

Yes, I didn't mean the carrier. More like a single PLAN destroyer would enter the Black Sea to make a short visit.

...then around to the Mediterranean to Egypt and Turkey, with single ships entering the Black Sea to visit Georgia and Bulgaria.

It is interesting that the only carrier I've ever heard of transiting the Bosporus, the out of commission, uncompleted Varag (arguably stolen from Ukraine) is now serving in the PLAN as the Liaoning.

 

[AOE4]

Rodey King asked the same. But we haven't had a global war in seventy-eight years. Regional spats aside, I'd say we are for the most part getting along.

That said, humans and their tribalism are always fighting, it's our nature. When we think back to the Pax Britannica, that supposed hundred years of global peace between the end of the Napoleonic War and the beginning of the First World War, the age was actually filled with regional conflicts, such as the US Civil War, the Crimean War, Boer War, War of Greek Independence, Mexican-American War, Spanish-American War, the Russo-Japanese War, a series of South American wars, and perhaps the most impacting upon the first half of the 20th Century; the 1870-71 Franco-German War.

Interesting comment, I relocated after the riots, I watched LA burn from the top of the hospital I worked at. I do agree with you.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Would the US, Britain or France welcome a PLAN visit? Imagine a Chinese CV arriving to New York City, like HMS Queen Elizabeth below.