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True. But I don't think the fuel barns were ever a target. The IJN didn't seem to grasp their importance. So, the IJNAS arrives and shoots up the airfields and torpedoes whatever ships they can find, sinking some destroyers and auxiliary ships, and USS Utah takes every frustrated Kate and Val pilots' attention.See above.
Plus the U.S. still loses a bunch of planes.
I forgot all about U.S.S. Pennsylvania. Now where did I leave my brain?They attack the Pennsylvania and other ships (minelayers, minesweepers, cutters, etc.) and now concentrate more on shore facilities like the drydocks and air fields as well as the oil tank farms, especially since the additional AA historically provided by the warships is no longer there.
The planned third wave was to have targeted the drydocks and oil storage facilities. Not having the bulk of the U.S. fleet present would have most likely seen this happen.
That's my bad geography. I meant NE of Oahu, 200 mi and growing. My idea is that Nagumo doesn't find them. Does the USN's improved status give the US better chances in the Philippines?If he finds the OBBs at sea, he launches everything and the kitchen sink, but if they're exercising between Pearl and the mainland they won't be 200 mi SW of Oahu, they'll be east-by-north and fuel for the Japanese ships is definitely going to hamper an attack at sea.
That's my bad geography. I meant NE of Oahu, 200 mi and growing. My idea is that Nagumo doesn't find them. Does the USN's improved status give the US better chances in the Philippines?
And just for giggles, Force Z has also survived in this thread too. The IJNAS has had an unlucky 48 hours.
I agree, Force Z runs for Ceylon. However it will be an odd section in future history books and naval academy classes where it's reported that both the USN and RN's battlefleets survived the first days of the Pacific War, and then spent the next three months staying out of harms way while the Japanese gobbled up the Philippines, Malaya, Burma, and DEI.I doubt it. Slow fuel-hogs that have to get within 10 miles of a target vs fast fuel-hogs that can strike at 200 miles or leave, or maneuver, as they saw fit? if Zed survives, the smart money is retreating to Ceylon.
What about the simultaneous attacks on Malaya, the Philippines and DEI? Can these still be canceled when Nagumo comes up craps?There are several possibilities, but most likely there is no Pearl Harbor attack.… the Kido Butai would run so low on fuel that they'd be forced to go home without a fight,
The Pennsylvania wasn't docked on Battleship Row, but berthed near the Navy yard - ironically, within walking distance of one of the oil tank farmsI forget all about U.S.S. Pennsylvania. Now where did I leave my brain?
I meant to ship out all the BBs but forgot about USS Pennsylvania and Utah. For my purposes, there are no battleships at Pearl.The Pennsylvania wasn't docked on Battleship Row, but berthed near the Navy yard - ironically, within walking distance of one of the oil tank farms
No. Just PH is scrapped. The Japanese would then be able to reallocate more assets to achieving their other objectives even quicker. I'm not sure of the exact hourly timelines for the other major operations, but they were already well underway, and the conquest (and exploitation) of Malaya and the DEI were absolutely necessary for the Empire to survive. The Philippines and PH were actually supporting operations to ensure success in Malaya and DEI.What about the simultaneous attacks on Malaya, the Philippines and DEI? Can these still be canceled when Nagumo comes up craps?
. . . and USS Utah takes every frustrated Kate and Val pilots' attention.
As well as the accurate information coming from the Japanese Intelligence Officer in their legation in Pearl Harbor, on the morning of the strike the cruisers Tone and Chikuma each launched a floatplane pre-dawn to reconnoiter the anchorage at Lahaina Roads and also Pearl Harbor itself respectively. They were scheduled to arrive just after first light. Chikuma's aircraft reported back to the KB between the launch of the first and second waves.There are several possibilities, but most likely there is no Pearl Harbor attack. The intent of the mission is to cripple the Pacific Fleet to entice the U.S. to sue for peace or at least prevent any meaningful opposition for at least 6 months. With the fleet absent, including all of the carriers, and without knowing where the fleet is or when it's returning, Nagumo would be recalled. He was receiving (one-way) instruction and intelligence updates from Tokyo daily. The intel updates were current within 12-24 hours, provided by the Japanese consulate in Honolulu to Tokyo and then relayed to Nagumo.
The Japanese would redouble their efforts to locate the Pac Fleet or try and determine if it would return to Hawaiian waters (including the Lahaina alternate fleet anchorage) before the Kido Butai would run so low on fuel that they'd be forced to go home without a fight, but Nagumo was also under strict orders not to be detected himself before launching the planned attack, so Japanese search efforts would need to be very careful. At some point, the decision would probably be made to abort the attack on Hawaii if there wasn't a high probability of the main targets being located within striking range. Kido Butai assets would be preserved for later employment.
Striking a handful of small warships and auxiliaries, shooting up several airfields and bombing docks and warehouses means the main mission has failed. It's not worth the risk involved for such a small pay-out. The Kido Butai was neither trained nor equipped to do more than superficial damage, at best, to the port facilities or the naval fuel tank farm.
Hitting Wake or Midway on the run home is a possibility, but either strike would probably be "one and done" missions, given the fuel status and less than useful Pearl Harbor/Pac Fleet specific ammunition load out.