Thumpalumpacus
Major
It's as neutral as America was in 1941, probably more so.
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What you described isn't a neutral country.
Germany does not benefit from a neutral Italy. The Allies do.
It would be interesting to see what the RN's aircraft carriers get up to if they're not defending Malta, etc. U-boats may be very active in the Mediterranean as convoys of materials to Britain and Russia may be coming through Suez.Well, the Luftwaffe did use Italian air-launched torpedoes, which was certainly a benefit to the Germans, but other than that, the net effect on the Luftwaffe, and Allies, in the air war would be small.
USA and UK attacks on German assets in Poland, Austria and South Germany start much sooner. I worked at an Italian steel plant that was flattened by the US air force on 6 July 1944, easy to remember because that date is now the company address.Ok.
Back to aviation, what do you see as the impact?
There are all sorts of aspects to that, 40% went to Germany so 60% didn't. As long as Sweden is neutral they would supply Germany, but Germany had to pay, how do they pay? The factory I was at in Italy, like many plants I worked in all over Europe was made to produce seamless pipes by a forging process, they were made to make gun barrels in the main.P pbehn good points, but I suppose Italy could still sell war materials or resources to Germany, and be immune to US or British bomber attacks. Same as the Swedes, where at the height of the war almost 40% of Sweden's foreign trade went to Germany.
Sweden thread the needle of neutrality very well, managing diplomatic demands from the US and Britain whilst trading with everyone. They used blockade runners to export ball bearings to Britain and iron ore to Germany, while arming its airforce with Italian and US fighters.
If the Italians are smart they'll follow Sweden's example and sell arms, goods and resources to anyone who wants them. Considering how desperately short Italy was for oil, the country may help its economy. As for Germany, I don't know how they paid the Swedes, but they may offer Italy future payment on credit until/if Germany wins the war, since Mussolini was Hitler's pal.As long as Sweden is neutral they would supply Germany, but Germany had to pay, how do they pay?
If the Italians are smart they'll follow Sweden's example and sell arms, goods and resources to anyone who wants them. Considering how desperately short Italy was for oil, the country may help its economy. As for Germany, I don't know how they paid the Swedes, but they may offer Italy future payment on credit until/if Germany wins the war, since Mussolini was Hitler's pal.
Circling back to aviation matters, under the above terms of trade Britain would likely receive the 300 Re.2000 fighters it ordered in 1940. Perhaps these can be shipped to Malaya. How does the Re. 2000 compare to the Ki-27 and early Ki-43? All three are lightly armed with twin .303 machine guns. Wikipedia has the Re.2000 and Ki-43 each with the identical 330 mph top speed above 12,000 feet. The Re.2000 is heavier, but with a more powerful engine.
You cannot discuss aviation alone without discussing neutrality. Sweden isn't Italy. The allies cant invade Sweden and have no reason to. If Germany invades Sweden it will get less than it does as a Neutral country. Germany got more out of France and Russia in peacetime than they did at war. Italy on the other hand, it was not a strong military power, very quickly Germany had to join the fight against Malta as it did in N Africa and when the allies counter attacked and invaded Italy most of the equipment they faced was German. In terms of neutrality warring powers should not overfly neutral countries, but this is pure politess and politics, what would Italy do about it? Complain to the League of Nations? The British invaded Iceland just as Germany invaded Netherlands and Belgium, Italy would have been invaded unless the Germans took steps to prevent it, to do that they have to violate Italy's neutrality.If the Italians are smart they'll follow Sweden's example and sell arms, goods and resources to anyone who wants them. Considering how desperately short Italy was for oil, the country may help its economy. As for Germany, I don't know how they paid the Swedes, but they may offer Italy future payment on credit until/if Germany wins the war, since Mussolini was Hitler's pal.
Circling back to aviation matters, under the above terms of trade Britain would likely receive the 300 Re.2000 fighters it ordered in 1940. Perhaps these can be shipped to Malaya. How does the Re. 2000 compare to the Ki-27 and early Ki-43? All three are lightly armed with twin .303 machine guns. Wikipedia has the Re.2000 and Ki-43 each with the identical 330 mph top speed above 12,000 feet. The Re.2000 is heavier, but with a more powerful engine.
[...] Italy would have been invaded unless the Germans took steps to prevent it, to do that they have to violate Italy's neutrality.
The Italians would have taken steps to prevent it. Presumably this is sometime in 1942 or 43. The Italian navy has six or seven battleships, more than 20 cruisers, over 120 destroyers and large torpedo boats, plus over a hundred submarines. Their airforce has over sixty combat squadrons, and the army when mobilized for WW2 had over 2.5 million troops. Unlike Operation Husky et al in 1943, the invaders would not be facing a war weary, economically starved and politically divided Italian military and civilian populace. Instead you're facing an united people defending their homeland. This will not be the soft underbelly of Hitler's Europe, but instead would present a hard rock to crack.Italy would have been invaded unless the Germans took steps to prevent it, to do that they have to violate Italy's neutrality.
Agreed. Invading Italy just no makes no sense, especially when an essentially undefended French Mediterranean coast is just to the left.But a sound cost-benefit analysis would likely conclude that it's too much work for too few benefits. An invasion would probably push them into the arms of the Germans, without much prospect of actually seizing Italy proper, given its rough terrain and distance from Allied bases. I think Italy could have stayed out if it wanted to, without worry of an Allied invasion.
Good point. There's also the maintenance, as the Brits will have little to no experience working on Italian engines like the Falco's Piaggio P.XI. Let's hope the purchase came with spare parts, metric tools and English pilot markings and mechanic manuals.I would imagine that the IJAAF pilots have more experience with their indigenous types than would the Brits with the hypothetical Re.2000 purchase. That can make a difference.
Eh? For the same reason they actually did invade Italy, so they could get into Austria and Germany which were the same entity at the time. Linz and Donawitz in Austria was and still is a huge steel making centre I have been there many times witnessing steel production, immediately post war they developed the Linz Donawitz L-D process of steel production, known in the English speaking world as Basic Oxygen Steel (BOS) production. Since Italy was invaded and Rome fell at the same time as D-Day I cant see what your argument is for not invading a neutral Italy, when the Fascist regime in Italy fell, the Germans didn't politely retreat to their own borders.By the Allies? To what benefit? What mission?
To secure a latent threat? Okay, perhaps that's plausible. But a sound cost-benefit analysis would likely conclude that it's too much work for too few benefits. An invasion would probably push them into the arms of the Germans, without much prospect of actually seizing Italy proper, given its rough terrain and distance from Allied bases.
I think Italy could have stayed out if it wanted to, without worry of an Allied invasion.
Well, I have done my best, so I willingly step back. You feel that an allied invasion of neutral Italy is inevitable. I commend your steadfastness.Eh? For the same reason they actually did invade Italy...
Good point. There's also the maintenance, as the Brits will have little to no experience working on Italian engines like the Falco's Piaggio P.XI. Let's hope the purchase came with spare parts, metric tools and English pilot markings and mechanic manuals.
Another point about Italian aircraft, do you think neutrality will limit Italy's access to the license-built Fiat RA.1050 R.C.58 Tifone? My feeling is that without the distraction of the war, Italy's airforce may have competely switched over to the Re.2005,
Fiat G.55 and Macchi C.205. A thorough modernization of the Italian air force would further challenge Allied ideas of an easy invasion.
Italy couldn't be neutral, how can a nation with colonies be neutral? The Allies invaded neutral Belgium and Netherlands as well as Italy, just as Germany did. Italy borders on Austria which was part of Germany, Adolf himself was an Austrian. Maybe its because I spent years driving and flying betwixt and between many places that were significant in WW2 because they made steel I see things differently.Well, I have done my best, so I willingly step back. You feel that an allied invasion of neutral Italy is inevitable. I commend your steadfastness.
War already existed de facto, I think I told you that the Americans flattened a steel works I worked at on the 6th of July 1944, that is long after Benito had been deposed, they were bombed by US bombers also based in Italy.For starters I can't see the US Congress permitting it, a declaration of war against Italy for what? .
Italy couldn't be neutral, how can a nation with colonies be neutral? The Allies invaded neutral Belgium and Netherlands as well as Italy, just as Germany did. Italy borders on Austria which was part of Germany, Adolf himself was an Austrian. Maybe its because I spent years driving and flying betwixt and between many places that were significant in WW2 because they made steel I see things differently.
War already existed de facto, I think I told you that the Americans flattened a steel works I worked at on the 6th of July 1944, that is long after Benito had been deposed, they were bombed by US bombers also based in Italy.