Italy remains neutral in WW2?

[Admiral Beez]

I'm afraid the answer would have been yes.

It's amazing that a small Island nation of 73 million people, with a fully mobilized army of about 6 million, a medium-large size surface navy of about forty heavy warships (CVs, BB and CA) and 130 lighter warships (CL and DD), a small-medium air force of about 3,000 combat aircraft across both the IJA and IJN, and with a small-medium size merchant marine could successfully take and hold so much of Asia. It's a classic example of Sun Tzu's concentration of force against a larger, but spread out foe.

Which brings me to the potential of an Allied invasion of our neutral Italy. By the likely invasion date of 1943, the Italians will have seven battleships, more than 20 cruisers, over 120 destroyers and large torpedo boats, plus over a hundred submarines and dozens of midgit subs, thousands naval and land mines. Their airforce will be modernized and will likely field over sixty combat squadrons, with an army of close to three million. And all of this concentrated on a small, mountainous territory, defending by a motivated people fighting for their home. We're essentially invading a larger Switzerland. It will not be a cakewalk.

 

[swampyankee]

I think some people miss a point about US isolationism, in that it was mostly directed against alliances and interventions in Europe. Few, if any objected to interventions in the Caribbean or Central America or to a fairly long standing military presence in China.

 

[Dimlee]

and with a small-medium size merchant marine

Japanese merchant marine was the 3rd in the world before WWII, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Japanese merchant marine was the 3rd in the world before WWII, if I'm not mistaken.

IDK, Wikipedia only shows 47 ships, but there must be more. Category:World War II merchant ships of Japan - Wikipedia

 

[The Basket]

Why are we invading Italy if it's neutral?

Did I miss a memo?

Go out to take a whizz and next minute we're bombing somebody.

 

[The Basket]

Mussolini remembered the old days when Rome was the centre of the universe and the Mediterranean was a Roman lake.

Follow your dreams Benito. Follow your dreams.

 

[SaparotRob]

Why are we invading Italy if it's neutral?

Did I miss a memo?

Go out to take a whizz and next minute we're bombing somebody.

That's what happens when you're late to the meetings.

 

[Dimlee]

IDK, Wikipedia only shows 47 ships, but there must be more. Category:World War II merchant ships of Japan - Wikipedia

Many more, certainly.
"Prior to World War II, the Japanese merchant marine fleet could claim 6.3 million gross tons or about 8 per cent of the world's tonnage, ranking third after Great Britain and the United States. During World War II, about 8 million gross tons were lost, including the vessels built during the war. "
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/145724108.pdf

 

[Admiral Beez]

Many more, certainly.
"Prior to World War II, the Japanese merchant marine fleet could claim 6.3 million gross tons or about 8 per cent of the world's tonnage, ranking third after Great Britain and the United States. During World War II, about 8 million gross tons were lost, including the vessels built during the war. "
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/145724108.pdf

Interesting. Okay, let's omit mention of merchant marine in my earlier post. My point is that with a moderate to large economy, population and military Japan was able to take pretty much all of SEA.

 

[The Basket]

In terms of economy in 1938 it was the US of A first followed by the British Empire.

Then back to the USSR followed by Germany and then China.

Then we have the rest which is France then Japan and Italy is the last place of the big economies. So the Japanese economy is much smaller than it's potential enemies and it compensates by spending more of its economy on it's military. So in real terms the economic potential of Japan is more like French or Italian than British or German. It also lacks economic potential because USA can simply open or change existing production into war production where Japan cannot. Same with Italy.

You can't open a new aircraft factory with workers you don't have or tooling you don't have. The IJN was taking 30% of the economy in peace time. So cannot push any harder than the Japanese are already doing.

 

[yosimitesam]

To much pressure being applied, and to big of an EGO involved to let it happen.

In fact, Mussolini's EGO was so big that, for a realistic 'what if', you will have to add 'Mussolini dies suddenly due to a fall from his favorite horse, striking his bald head on a rock.' Still, it's an interesting scenario to ponder. It was Mussolini who said 'I must have a few thousand dead or I won't be able to sit with any power at the peace table.' He was extremely jealous of Hitler's successes and his ego was just as big as Hitler's.

 

[cammerjeff]

I would agree it would be possible if you eliminate Mussolini from leadership somehow before the war broke out. I don't think ist possible if he is still in control of Italy.

 

[Admiral Beez]

In fact, Mussolini's EGO was so big that, for a realistic 'what if', you will have to add 'Mussolini dies suddenly due to a fall from his favorite horse, striking his bald head on a rock.' Still, it's an interesting scenario to ponder. It was Mussolini who said 'I must have a few thousand dead or I won't be able to sit with any power at the peace table.' He was extremely jealous of Hitler's successes and his ego was just as big as Hitler's.

Good points. If Mussolini (or his successor) can hold their jealously until the winter of 1941 when a likely (since no Greece or Libyan distractions) earlier-launched Barbarossa has run out of steam and the Italian embassy in Moscow is reporting that a seemingly endless Soviet reinforcement is underway, he'll be thanking good fortune. By late 1944 when the Soviets are now roaring across Europe we may see Italy finally drop its neutral stance and ask to join a nascent NATO.

 

[Admiral Beez]

You can't open a new aircraft factory with workers you don't have or tooling you don't have. The IJN was taking 30% of the economy in peace time.

Meanwhile with defence spending throughout from 1930 to 1939 not exceeding 9% and for most of the 1920s and 30s below 4% the British were able to build up and maintain a sizable air force, the #1 or #2 largest navy and a modern ground army.

Military Spending Patterns in History

Imagine what the British military in the 1930s would have looked like if defence spending was increased to >8% earlier. Naval Treaties would slow naval expansion, but the RAF, Army and hopefully the FAA would have been differently equipped for certain. Of course the increase would hurt spending elsewhere, such as the growing demand for an NHS, which the British people might have rejected in the general elections.

 

[swampyankee]

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Hitler invading Italy; those German-speakers in the Tyrol may have been sufficient cause. After all, a driving reason for Hitler's invasion of Norway was denial of ports to the British (see Decision To Invade Norway and Denmark)

 

[Admiral Beez]

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Hitler invading Italy; those German-speakers in the Tyrol may have been sufficient cause. After all, a driving reason for Hitler's invasion of Norway was denial of ports to the British (see Decision To Invade Norway and Denmark)

Italians of German-origin could join, same as the Blue Division - Wikipedia

 

[swampyankee]

Italians of German-origin could join, same as the Blue Division - Wikipedia

Part of Hitler's ideology was pan-Germanism; having Germans under the rule of non-Germans was anathema.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Good points. If Mussolini (or his successor) can hold their jealously until the winter of 1941 when a likely (since no Greece or Libyan distractions) earlier-launched Barbarossa has run out of steam and the Italian embassy in Moscow is reporting that a seemingly endless Soviet reinforcement is underway, he'll be thanking good fortune. By late 1944 when the Soviets are now roaring across Europe we may see Italy finally drop its neutral stance and ask to join a nascent NATO.

Barbarossa won't be launched earlier than June (planned date 15 May 41), because rasputitsa in the East in the spring of 41 was fierce all the same. The Balkan invasion is cited as a reason for the failure of Barbarossa, but few seem to pay attention to the weather on the Eastern Front at the time. The season of mud was biannual, spring and fall; and the spring of 41 it was pretty thick.

 

[The Basket]

Problem is that democracies like France or UK or USA cannot increase spending to crazy military levels.

Dictatorship can. Didn't have nhs pre war so that's no issue.

I doubt anyone is invading Italy. Cos it ain't worth the hassle.