Kido Butai if Pacific war averted in 1941-42

[GrauGeist]

So they haven't signed into the Axis?

That's the iffy part.

Japan was involved with Berlin well before 1941. If Japan doesn't attack the U.S., then Germany doesn't declare war (yet) and so does the U.S. continue to remain neutral?

It's been said that Japan turned southward because of easier access to oil, but oil had been procured from Eastern Soviet Union through a joint venture earlier.
So if Japan is just focusing on east Asia and their co-prosparity sphere and not fighting the U.S. and Commonwealth, than the IJN and IJA van bring it's full weight to bear in the Soviet Union in concert with the Axis invasion in the West.
I understand that the Soviet Union got the upper hand against Japanese forces, but that was just the Kwantung Army and not the bulk of Japan's forces.
Plus, the Soviet's I-16 was more than a match for their KI-10 and KI-27. Once the KI-43 shows up, things would change in a hurry.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

That's the iffy part.

Japan was involved with Berlin well before 1941. If Japan doesn't attack the U.S., then Germany doesn't declare war (yet) and so does the U.S. continue to remain neutral?

It's been said that Japan turned southward because of easier access to oil, but oil had been procured from Eastern Soviet Union through a joint venture earlier.
So if Japan is just focusing on east Asia and their co-prosparity sphere and not fighting the U.S. and Commonwealth, than the IJN and IJA van bring it's full weight to bear in the Soviet Union in concert with the Axis invasion in the West.
I understand that the Soviet Union got the upper hand against Japanese forces, but that was just the Kwantung Army and not the bulk of Japan's forces.
Plus, the Soviet's I-16 was more than a match for their KI-10 and KI-27. Once the KI-43 shows up, things would change in a hurry.

I think America was bound for war with Germany no matter what they Japanese did. In my view, the Japanese only hurried the process. The shooting war in the Atlantic started a couple of months before KdB hit PH. America and Germany were already in conflict by Oct 1941 even if they hadn't declared war.

 

[swampyankee]

I'd think the Kriegsmarine would be a little more careful around its allies. Did the U-boats sink any Italian ships in the Med?

My point was that unrestricted submarine warfare did not draw America in until the fall of 1941, and even that was undeclared (in the legal sense) due to American public opinion. It wasn't the impetus IRL that you're saying it would be in your alt timeline. I don't think that would have changed because America still needs to have two ocean-going forces, and still has isolationism to deal with.

It seems a bit of a stretch to me.

With a far more isolationist president, the Kaiser managed to get the US to declare war by unrestricted submarine warfare in 1917. I'd estimate that, without Pearl Harbor, the US would be at war with the Axis by July 1942.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

With a far more isolationist president, the Kaiser managed to get the US to declare war by unrestricted submarine warfare in 1917. I'd estimate that, without Pearl Harbor, the US would be at war with the Axis by July 1942.

Yeah, as I noted above, we were already shooting at German subs two months before PH.

While FDR was no isolationist, the American public largely was and he had to take note of that sentiment.

 

[33k in the air]

While FDR was no isolationist, the American public largely was and he had to take note of that sentiment.

The Gallup polling data from 1941, and even in 1940 to a good extent, indicate that, while the American pubic did not want to go to war, it understood that war was likely coming, and was supportive of increasing U.S. military preparedness as well as aiding and supporting the U.K. even if such aid and support risked war.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Gallup polling data from 1941, and even in 1940 to a good extent, indicate that, while the American pubic did not want to go to war, it understood that war was likely coming, and was supportive of increasing U.S. military preparedness as well as aiding and supporting the U.K. even if such aid and support risked war.

Of course. And isolationism started falling off in particular after the summer of 1940. But it was still so strong that FDR had to promise that he wouldn't send "American boys to war" in that year's presidential campaign. That was, of course, a political tack and not his personal feelings.