I think this is a reasonable assessment.
There is evidence in russian sources to suggest that Berlin was to be taken initially by March 1945 according to schedule. However, advancing red army forces were subject to very heavy CAS attacks. SG Gruppen with -190F8 took a toll on red army ground forces in this period. The losses and strained resupply lines required to clear areas in the north first, build up more strength in the Oder bridgehead and delayed the final operation of the Berlin encirclement(-s) by a month or two. Then came the battle of the Seelow heights, in which the soviets lost a significant portion of their AFV (sources differ between 743 minimum and 2,083 maximum) and 33,000 casualties in four days.
The RA won, though. By may 1945, the red army was also short on infantery men in very many fighting divisions on testimony of different (including soviet) accounts.
I think the -190F8 was the best the LW was going to whish in this period. Survivable, small target size, fast, armoured, good payload and ordenance options. The -F9 with BMW-801(T)S and 2,250hp was not worse and both are better than less survivable Hs-129 or Ju-87 (both mostly used by night in this timeframe).
Earlier, I think the (not produced) Me-410A2 (with twin 30mm Mk-103) would have been very effective in CAS -else the -410A/U4 with BK5 comes to mind.