parsifal
Colonel
you have just answered the question why hitler declined francos offer to join the Axis. franco's offer was designed specifically to be too high for germany to pay the price. economically it would have put a huge dent in the german economy. Politically it would have turned every neutral nation away from the germans, as they would have exposed the germans as completely untrustworthy. This would include those that actually joined the Axis detente (since they did not enter the war until the latter part of 1940, and then only with some arm twisting....in the case of finland, they did not join the axis until after June 1941).
The most likley scenario is that the Germans dont accept conditional surrender of the french and push onto Marseilles. This may have induced co-operation from the spanish without the economic cost, but still with the promise of the French African possessions. The French believed they could extrricate an additional 20 Divs from southern Francce, if an evacuation started aound June 14th....thats just prior to the fall of Paris. They had over 2000 airframes in reserve, 22 Divs already in French North Africa Corsica and West Afrfica. Their entire navy would of course go over to the allied side. In addition Portugal would almnost certainly either enter as an allied nation, or at the very least hand over the Azores (as they did historically, in 1944) for use by the allies.
This scenario almost certainly would see the rapid defeat of the italians in Libya, and the occupation of Spanish Morocco, Spanish Sahara and the Canary Islands. It would probably see a massive siege, similar to that at Tobruk, lasting years I would think. Gibraltar was the most well stocked fortress in the British empire, so its ability to hold out would be considerable.
On the other hand, the Spanish ports of Cadiz and Corunna would have given some possibilities for U-Boats and Surface raiders. but with West Africa, the Azores and Canary Islands in Allied hands (oh, as well as the Portuguese island of Madeira), the Axis would still remain pretty much contained.
Another possibility is that the germans simply invade Spain. This is what both Jodl and guderian wanted to do. Guderians plan was, frankly foolhardy and impractical. jodls plan, on which the eventual Felix plan was based, was a sound plan, but could not have been implemented until the end of the year and would have given the allies plenty of time to prepre and negotiate with the Spanish. It would have given the spaniards and the Portuguese time to consider their position and perhaps accept armamanets from the allies (of course joining the allies)
What the germans wanted to avoid was another peninsular campaign with the gureillas and constant harassment....getting nowhere. Perhaps not on the scale of Nappy, but more akin to Yugolslavia. A nightmare, just the same.
The most likley scenario is that the Germans dont accept conditional surrender of the french and push onto Marseilles. This may have induced co-operation from the spanish without the economic cost, but still with the promise of the French African possessions. The French believed they could extrricate an additional 20 Divs from southern Francce, if an evacuation started aound June 14th....thats just prior to the fall of Paris. They had over 2000 airframes in reserve, 22 Divs already in French North Africa Corsica and West Afrfica. Their entire navy would of course go over to the allied side. In addition Portugal would almnost certainly either enter as an allied nation, or at the very least hand over the Azores (as they did historically, in 1944) for use by the allies.
This scenario almost certainly would see the rapid defeat of the italians in Libya, and the occupation of Spanish Morocco, Spanish Sahara and the Canary Islands. It would probably see a massive siege, similar to that at Tobruk, lasting years I would think. Gibraltar was the most well stocked fortress in the British empire, so its ability to hold out would be considerable.
On the other hand, the Spanish ports of Cadiz and Corunna would have given some possibilities for U-Boats and Surface raiders. but with West Africa, the Azores and Canary Islands in Allied hands (oh, as well as the Portuguese island of Madeira), the Axis would still remain pretty much contained.
Another possibility is that the germans simply invade Spain. This is what both Jodl and guderian wanted to do. Guderians plan was, frankly foolhardy and impractical. jodls plan, on which the eventual Felix plan was based, was a sound plan, but could not have been implemented until the end of the year and would have given the allies plenty of time to prepre and negotiate with the Spanish. It would have given the spaniards and the Portuguese time to consider their position and perhaps accept armamanets from the allies (of course joining the allies)
What the germans wanted to avoid was another peninsular campaign with the gureillas and constant harassment....getting nowhere. Perhaps not on the scale of Nappy, but more akin to Yugolslavia. A nightmare, just the same.