What happens if Russians “accidentally” strike Poland?

[Admiral Beez]

Weapons from Poland headed to Lviv and further east often cross at the Ukrainian town of Krakovets. This seems like a juicy target for Russian land attack missiles. So, tomorrow, Russia launches rocket artillery or "precision" land attack missiles at what it believes is a munitions truck convoy inside the Ukraine border. But, Russian precision is subjective, and four of the land attack missiles instead land in a population centre just on the other side in Poland, killing four Polish civilians and injuring a dozen more. Now what? Is this an Article 5 moment with NATO counter battery strikes, or considered just a screw up worthy of diplomatic protests?

Krakovets' · Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, 81034

Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, 81034

goo.gl

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I don't think NATO will plough in on that basis.

 

[SaparotRob]

I'd like to hear from some of our Eastern European members on this. It's much more of an intellectual discussion for us not being directly threatened nor having loved ones as collateral damage.

 

[SaparotRob]

BTW If this event does happen AND instead of a quick apology, putler phrases it as a warning, unleash conventional hell.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

BTW If this event does happen AND instead of a quick apology, putler phrases it as a warning, unleash conventional hell.

Yeah, if he signals it being intentional, drop the blade, impose NFZ, and secure Ukraine's original borders.

 

[ThomasP]

If actual/potential loss of life were minimal (as in the OP?) and Russia responds quickly with apology and remedial action, it could (would almost certainly) be handled diplomatically the first time. If no apology or discernible remedial action, then like for like is . . . likely. US/NATO would not attack targets in Russia (too much potential for propaganda), but would use it as an excuse to teach Russia (some of) the difference between our intel/targeting ability and the Russian ability - basically a punitive strike on Russian forces in Ukraine with intent of minimal loss of life, but maximal effect on the chosen target's war fighting ability. If the unit responsible for the NATO casualties was identified, it would be a likely candidate to be destroyed.

The above is from US/NATO operational "contingencies" planning.

The difference in US/NATO vs Russian intel/targeting capability for such an action is so bizarrely great that I find it difficult to effectively lay out.

 

[Shinpachi]

I'm fraid of Zelenskyy doing it pretending Russian.

 

[Dimlee]

2014 Vrbětice ammunition warehouse explosions - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"NATO′s North Atlantic Council issued a statement that concluded by saying, "Allies express deep concern..."

And there were 239 citizens of NATO countries on board MH17...