I agree that I am largely speculating with my figures for the .50
You are exceedingly close to the actual figure at which the British arrived (for a Heinkel 111). When I get a few minutes tonight I'll try and relay the figures.
EDIT:
Alright, basically it broke down to this:
25% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 4 rounds
.5 inch AP - 11 rounds
.303 inch - 24 rounds
50% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 9 rounds
.5 inch AP - 20 rounds
.303 inch - 42 rounds
75% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 17 rounds
.5 inch AP - 33 rounds
.303 inch - 67 rounds
90% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 29 rounds
.5 inch AP - 50 rounds
.303 inch - 105 rounds
The tests were based on ground-firing trials against a Heinkel III, 200 yards direct astern and assumed a uniform distribution of strikes over the airframe.
The British analysts remarked that the figures were probably slightly pessimistic due to the impossibility to simulate airframe disintegration (lack of air stresses) and it was not possible to assess on a statistical basis the myriad of ways a fire could start due to engine behavior under fire.
During the test they didn't have proper stats on the likelihood an HE/I round would set a petrol tank on fire. Based on four strikes, the tank lit up once, so they went with 25%.
Afterwards they were able to do more extensive tests and found this was 40% (this time based on 60 strikes). This was indicated in an addendum to the firing trial.
Also, fuel leaks were not factored in. The thinking was that German bombers operate from such short distances to their targets, the chance of petrol tanks being holed and emptied was removed. I would think this would hurt the Hispano numbers more than the two Brownings.
Your 'two percent' hit accuracy figure sounds reasonable to me as well, as the figure I think I've generally run into is about one percent accuracy. If you were isolating the statistic against large bombers that weren't maneouvreing, a doubling of hits would seem to fit.
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