A Last-Ditch Effort to Prevent a War

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 13, 2022

nuuumannn said:
Completely, but while the holocaust was truly awful, I suspect it's a bit trite to presume it formed the main impetus for the establishment of the Israeli state. It most certainly sped up the process, but as you mentioned earlier, there are a lot of forces at play in this particular scenario, real or imagined and I reckon it was gonna happen regardless. It might have taken longer though, there was something about several million dispossessed Jews wandering Europe that provided a more immediate need.

As I said, I believe it formed the main impetus for international support of that state once established. It's a different claim than your phrasing.

It was going to happen without the Holocaust, no doubt in my mind on a longer timeline, as you write. However, with the Holocaust, and the immediate Arab attack upon the new state, the fact that the Holocaust had happened almost surely affected international opinion which resulted in various nations giving Israel moral or material support.

Compare it to the current invasion of Ukraine. Very few non-Ukrainian sources mention the Holodomor in analyzing international support, and that's because it happened so long ago -- not to mention it being whitewashed by the Western press at the time, including the New York Times. Only Ukrainians understand that cultural memory as being part of their motivation for fighting so damned hard. We Westerners continually hear about "democratic values" and/or "love of homeland" as the reasons Ukrainians are fighting, but their cultural memory is an aspect most Western reports gloss over. We are giving them the same sort of support as we gave Israel not for their reasons, but for our own. Does that make sense?

nuuumannn · Jul 13, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
We are giving them the same sort of support as we gave Israel not for their reasons, but for our own.

Ka-ching! Bang on the money!

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 13, 2022

nuuumannn said:
Ka-ching! Bang on the money!

Thank you. I thought for a moment we were talking past each other. It's too easy to do that, so it's nice to find that point where, while we might see things from different angles, we can find that point of overlap and see where each other are coming from.

I will go back and reread your posts now, knowing this. Thanks again.

nuuumannn · Jul 13, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
Thank you. I thought for a moment we were talking past each other.

No worries, it's easily done, Thump and I generally agree with everything you have said, but for the things I think otherwise. Nevertheless, sometimes I do jump the gun - I read at a million words a minute and miss stuff, so I don't always pick up every nuance immediately

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 13, 2022

nuuumannn said:
No worries, it's easily done, Thump and I generally agree with everything you have said, but for the things I think otherwise. Nevertheless, sometimes I do jump the gun - I read at a million words a minute and miss stuff, so I don't always pick up every nuance immediately

I do the same thing, which is why I mentioned rereading. It's kinda like rereading a book once you know the plot-twist at the end, it gives you insight into the earlier portions.

Admiral Beez · Jul 16, 2022

Without the First World War's massacre of hundreds of thousands of its most educated and healthiest young men and the devastation of its economy, will the British Empire last a little longer?

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 16, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
Without the First World War's massacre of hundreds of thousands of its most educated and healthiest young men and the devastation of its economy, will the British Empire last a little longer?

Probably. Aside from the points you raise above, it would not have war debt to pay down. That would leave it in a better state of economic preparedness for any other conflicts which might arise.

Howard Gibson · Jul 16, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
Without the First World War's massacre of hundreds of thousands of its most educated and healthiest young men and the devastation of its economy, will the British Empire last a little longer?

The British Empire bankrupted itself in the two world wars. If there is no war, they don't bankrupt themselves.

They really did not have the resources to maintain world dominance. The Americans and eventually the Russians would have gotten bigger.

The war destroyed the central European empires. It doomed the British and French empires, but they lasted another generation. Without a gigantic war for "democracy", I wonder how long their empires would have lasted.

I strongly recommend you read ~~Sleepwalters~~ Sleepwalkers by Christopher Clark. It is all about the start of WWI, but he spends more time in the Balkans, a fascinating subject.

GrauGeist · Jul 16, 2022

Also, without WWI putting a strain on the Russian Empire, would the Czar have been able to contain the revolution?

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 17, 2022

GrauGeist said:
Also, without WWI putting a strain on the Russian Empire, would the Czar have been able to contain the revolution?

I think change was going to hit Russia, war or no. They'd already had a revolt in 1905 that had spurred Nicholas II to make some constitutional reforms, but that hadn't satisfied the broad range of opponents to the regime. WWI certainly hastened the demise of Tsarist Russia, but I think that was going to happen anyway, given the levels of corruption and income-gap that they had.

Admiral Beez · Jul 17, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
I think change was going to hit Russia, war or no.

Agreed. There's also the now stateless Poles, Czechs, Latvians, etc. who will not stand to be under German, Austrian or Russia rule forever. I expect ethno-nationalist uprisings.

Howard Gibson · Jul 17, 2022

GrauGeist said:
Also, without WWI putting a strain on the Russian Empire, would the Czar have been able to contain the revolution?

I think so.

People in the Austro-Hungarian Empire including the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, and in Russia, understood that they were weak and would not survive a big war. Obviously, not enough people understood this. In an alternate history with no WWI, why would people revolt against the Czar? Franz Ferdinand was to inherit the Austro-Hungarian throne, and he planned to being Slavs closer to political power. I think WWI was the only major crisis the Russians faced. They were building industry. The economy was improving. It is hard to say who would taken over from Nicolaus_II.

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