"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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buffnut453 said:
Well, it rather depends on whether Ukrainian forces can consolidate their crossing of the Oskil River. According to reporting yesterday, they had taken the eastern bank. If they can hold onto that bridgehead, then they may elect to continue the offensive.
Click to expand...

I'm strictly an armchair expert, but if I was looking for options to advance eastward I would want more than just a single bridge over the Oskil which remains within range of Russian tube artillery systems as my supply line. Shades of Market Garden in that.

If it was me, I'd be pushing south down the western bank of the Oskil, and I'd look to link up with the other possible crossing points. There are another two bridges that I understand are still crossable (or were last week) between Kupiansk and Izyum. Firmly establish one of those (I believe Ukraine has a toehold across the Oskil at Borova, but the area is heavily contested). Then I'd push out eastward somewhat to provide operational maneuver room.

Once a solid bridgehead is established, then there are multiple options. Drive east and threaten Svatove (a major Russian supply line nexus, with links from Belgorod and Voronezh), or continue more southward, walling off Svatove and threaten the rear of Russian positions in Lyman, Kreminna and Rubizhne, with the ultimate objective towards Severodonetsk.

Alternatively, if Russian forces can be cleared from the towns at the nexus of the Sverski Donetsk and Oskil, then it may be possible to drive northwards and link up with the Kupiansk and Borova bridgeheads that way. That's a hard fight though, against Russian regulars and VDV with plenty of armour and artillery.

But, this is all the ramblings of an amateur. I hope the experts know what they're doing.
 
Jabberwocky said:
I'm strictly an armchair expert, but if I was looking for options to advance eastward I would want more than just a single bridge over the Oskil which remains within range of Russian tube artillery systems as my supply line. Shades of Market Garden in that.

If it was me, I'd be pushing south down the western bank of the Oskil, and I'd look to link up with the other possible crossing points. There are another two bridges that I understand are still crossable (or were last week) between Kupiansk and Izyum. Firmly establish one of those (I believe Ukraine has a toehold across the Oskil at Borova, but the area is heavily contested). Then I'd push out eastward somewhat to provide operational maneuver room.

Once a solid bridgehead is established, then there are multiple options. Drive east and threaten Svatove (a major Russian supply line nexus, with links from Belgorod and Voronezh), or continue more southward, walling off Svatove and threaten the rear of Russian positions in Lyman, Kreminna and Rubizhne, with the ultimate objective towards Severodonetsk.

Alternatively, if Russian forces can be cleared from the towns at the nexus of the Sverski Donetsk and Oskil, then it may be possible to drive northwards and link up with the Kupiansk and Borova bridgeheads that way. That's a hard fight though, against Russian regulars and VDV with plenty of armour and artillery.

But, this is all the ramblings of an amateur. I hope the experts know what they're doing.
Click to expand...

Have you seen reporting that they've only crossed the Oskil at one location? Zelensky's reporting that Ukrainian forces essentially own the east bank of the river.
 
Interesting update, not least Putin's comment that he wants the war to end soon.:

www.bbc.com

Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war

As Ukraine reclaims more land, the Turkish leader says Russia aims to end the war as soon as possible.
www.bbc.com

Another interesting tidbit in the article is Ukraine's claim that Russian forces have retreated to Bilohorivka, which suggests the push eastwards by the Ukrainian military is continuing.
 
buffnut453 said:
Have you seen reporting that they've only crossed the Oskil at one location? Zelensky's reporting that Ukrainian forces essentially own the east bank of the river.
Click to expand...

I'm cautious - generally I'll only trust independently confirmed sources rather than politicians or propaganda mouthpieces on either side.

From what I can see, based on a fusion of pro-Russian and pro-Ukranian reporting, within Kharkiv Oblast Ukraine has one sizable, but contested bridge crossing at Kupiansk supported by an intact bridge and a couple of 'wet' crossing locations. Penetration there is ~5-6 km in depth and about twice that in width, with slow progress being made southward and even slower progress eastward. Then there's a second 'wet' crossing at Borova (reportedly good enough to get some armour across), which is heavily contested and about 1/3rd the size of the bridgehead at Kupiansk and is also making slow progress southward.

I'd say the the AFU have one established bridgehead and one tenuous bridgehead and they'll need fresh/rested forces at both locations to make any significant progress at either now that Russian reinforcements (fresh ones at that) are in these areas.

At the moment, the only way I can see Ukraine owning the east bank of the river (in Kharkiv Oblast) is if Russian forces decide to pull back and consolidate on a new line to defend Svatove. But if they did that, they would essentially have to abandon all positions north of the Sviersky Donetsk river that are west Kreminna.
 
Jabberwocky said:
Once a solid bridgehead is established, then there are multiple options. Drive east and threaten Svatove (a major Russian supply line nexus, with links from Belgorod and Voronezh...
Click to expand...
It is amazing how versed and capable Ukraine is at appreciating and hitting Russian supply lines, with nearly four thousand trucks alone lost so far. This and the SIGINT-led precision targeting of Russian Generals shows how much the UAF has progressed from the Soviet-era. If there's any nation I want in NATO, who knows how to fight the Russians, it's Ukraine!
 
How much of that, however, is because of NATO training and intelligence, along with NATO providing strategy and targets of opportunity to Ukraine.

Don't take me wrong. I will not take anything away from Ukraine. They are fighting one hell of a war, but NATO is fighting a proxy war through Ukraine as well.
 
LONDON/KYIV, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Two Russian-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine announced plans to hold referendums on joining Russia later this week and an ally of President Vladimir Putin said the votes would alter the geopolitical landscape in Moscow's favour forever.

The move, which seriously escalates Moscow's standoff with the West, comes after Russia suffered a battlefield reversal in northeast Ukraine and as Putin ponders his next steps in a nearly seven-month-old conflict that has caused the most serious East-West rift since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Russian-backed, self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the neighbouring Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said the planned referendums would be held from Sept. 23-27.

In a post on social media addressed to Putin, DPR head Denis Pushilin wrote: "I ask you, as soon as possible, in the event of a positive decision in the referendum - which we have no doubt about - to consider the DPR becoming a part of Russia."


Earlier on Tuesday, Russian-installed officials in the southern Kherson region, where Moscow's forces control around 95% of the territory, said they had also decided to hold a referendum. Pro-Russian authorities in part of Ukraine's Zaporizhia region were expected to follow suit. read more

www.reuters.com

Russia holds annexation votes; Ukraine says residents coerced

The referendums are aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine, drawing condemnation from Kyiv and Western nations which dismissed the votes as a sham and pledged not to recognize the results.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

And here's ISW's take on that:

Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia's proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine's ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers. The legislatures of Russia's proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to "immediately" hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects.[1] Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the "Crimean scenario." She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, "untying Russia's hands in all respects."[2]

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
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