"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

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You can have Ballistic Missile Submarines, or you can have a half million man army
 
Does this sound like Ukraine is 'winning'? Has Cavoli ben reading press clippings out of DC before yesterday? It HAD to have been cleared by DoD and POTUS. Are we about to see Zelenski twisting in the wind?

Losses in Ukraine are 'out of proportion' to what NATO has been planning for, the alliance's top general says

"Hard power is a reality," US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli said in January. "If the other guy shows up with a tank, you better have a tank."
www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine launching an offensive (per MSM) while conscripting 16 year olds? Sound like Germany 1945?

Watch: Kiev orders all boys aged 16 years+ to register for conscription as neocons purge Zelensky's inner circle for 3rd time - Daily Telegraph NZ

Conscription also extends to males suffering from 'infirmities', as key Zelensky ally Reznikov sacked as Minister of Defense.
dailytelegraph.co.nz

A close friend and flag officer says that Ukraine has burned up 7 years of Total Raytheon production of ground precision munitions. Russia has boosted its manufacturing to war footing - but nobody on our side of the fence has. How long before WE replenish our inventories?

Zelensky just fired head of Ukraine Defense Department. How long will Zelensky last?

Below - Does anyone live at home in Washington? Just remember that Seymour Hersh is not a right wing/conservative voice. How early and how often did Administration underestimate Russia?

Nord Stream Sabotage Was CIA, US Navy Covert Op: Seymour Hersh Bombshell Prompts White House Response | ZeroHedge

And, most importantly, the US reincarnation of Clauswitz and MacArthur has opined what the Next Step should be for the US/

Alexander Vindman And The Road To World War III | ZeroHedge

What is the current line on earliest next event:
a.) Total collapse of Ukraine
or
b.) WWIII
or
c.) massive collapse of US economy
or
d.) China attacks Taiwan
 
drgondog said:
Russia has boosted its manufacturing to war footing - but nobody on our side of the fence has. How long before WE replenish our inventories?
Click to expand...

This is factually incorrect.

Ramping Up Javelin Production to Support Increased Demands

The Javelin Weapon System is a difference-maker for operational commanders around the world. With an increase in global demand for the precision weapon system, the Javelin Joint Venture is responding to support our U.S. Army, U.S. Marine Corps and international customers.
www.lockheedmartin.com

U.S. industry cranks up HIMARS production as Ukraine war intensifies

The rocket launchers have had on outsized effect against Russian forces Ukraine.
www.politico.com

With demand high in Ukraine, US Army ramps up artillery production

As Ukraine rapidly burns through 155mm artillery rounds to fight back the Russian invasion, the U.S. Army is scrambling to increase production capacity.
www.defensenews.com

It's true that Stingers will be harder to replace, as they were already planned to be retired, but Raytheon's CEO has said that they could be rolling out new Stingers by the end of this year.

And while our economy as a whole is not on war footing, that's probably because we're not at war.
 
Is Ukraine winning? Certainly Russia is losing. Russia has lost how many troops and equipment since trying to take one small town for the last 4 or 5 months?

Everyone, including Russia, was surprised by the amount of artillery fire. Russia is dipping heavily into its strategic reserve. It's forced to go begging to other pariah states for ammo. The U.S. just came up with the GLSDB from rocket motors to be scrapped and 250 lb bombs. I believe the U.S. will have over 150,000 of these.
Russia's military industrial complex does not have Boeing, Saab, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Huntington Ingalls, Oshkosh, Elbit Systems, Thales, BAE, Rheinmetall, Kraus-Maffei, Hyundai-Rotem, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, to name but a few. Guess our low unemployment might get lower.

Even if Russia is able to refurbish T-72s, how they going to get them to the front on a railroad drained of personnel for a special military operation? They have equipment shortages, like the ball bearings used on the trucks of RR carriages, cars or wagons Their railroad is worse than ours. As a retired railroader, I follow reports about rail.
The mechanics of the current Lend-Lease aren't that clear to me but I believe that Ukraine has to pay for what they keep. I'm open to correction.
The weapons being sent to Ukraine are mostly old stock. The stuff that has to be recycled. The stuff that has to be catalogued, processed and disposed of according to EPA guidelines. Dumping old ammo stocks behind a playground is no longer tolerated. That cost$ money.
The book value of these items? It ain't like a car you buy that loses half its value when you drive it off the lot. The cost of an M-113 (as an example) sent to Ukraine is valued at the price when purchased by the U.S. 217 years ago.

The weapons we are sending Ukraine aren't vital for defending Taiwan. Taiwan has American Air Power of its own already. I personally don't think M1A1s are very useful for Taiwan. Taiwan has lots of goodies on order already. They have or will have Patriots. China may or may not attack but to my naive eyes, Putin kicked the hornets nest and the West is rearming.

The weapons were designed to fight the Soviet Union which was an existential threat to the U.S. and its allies. Putin wants a Russia like some hybrid Imperial Soviet Empire. Russian propaganda routinely states that they are at war against the west. Well, these weapons are defending Democracy or at least as close as we can get. No Americans are using these weapons. It's almost like they are almost autonomous. We ain't shooting anyone with them. That's the best "bang for the buck" you can get. There ain't gonna' be much of a Russian Army left to take on Nato.

I have more points to bring up (like neither Monty or Ike wanted peace talks when Germany launched its Ardennes offensive in December, 1944) but this is a long post for me.
 
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drgondog said:
Does this sound like Ukraine is 'winning'?
Click to expand...

Nobody on this forum has been saying that Ukraine is winning. We have said that all Ukraine must do is not lose...but the regular contributors on this thread are sufficiently situationally aware to understand that the fighting remains in a state of back-and-forth with, at present, Russia making some slight gains.


drgondog said:
Ukraine launching an offensive (per MSM) while conscripting 16 year olds? Sound like Germany 1945?
Click to expand...

And Russia's pulling convicts out of prison and throwing them into the front lines. What does that say about Moscow's ability to win the war?



As Thumpalumpacus observed, the West absolutely has ramped up armaments production. Are we at a "war footing" (whatever that means)? Not sure. However, even being on a war footing, Russia is still going cap-in-hand to North Korea and Iran. Does that suggest Russia can maintain its current munitions expenditures?


drgondog said:
Just remember that Seymour Hersh is not a right wing/conservative voice.

Nord Stream Sabotage Was CIA, US Navy Covert Op: Seymour Hersh Bombshell Prompts White House Response | ZeroHedge
Click to expand...

Hersh may not be a right wing/conservative voice. However, he has lived in the conspiracy-theory swamp before. He's also well-known for citing unnamed sources that make unfounded assertions. In this case, a sonobuoy would have to be specifically configured with a specialist frequency and message to detonate pre-positioned explosives. Dropping such a specialist sonobuoy in the right place with the right operating status probably requires someone onboard the aircraft to be aware of the covert mission. It also requires the aircraft armourers to not notice an unusual sonobuoy being loaded into the weapons bay.

Finally, bear in mind that exercise planning starts about 14 months before execution. The participating units, operating areas, exercise scenario, missions etc are all defined well ahead of time. Adjusting those at relatively short notice (e.g. within 6 months of the exercise) would stand out as unusual and would generate a whole host of questions across multiple staff elements at multiple levels of command.

In order for this to happen successfully, it requires an awful lot of people to (a) be in on the conspiracy, or (b) walk around with their eyes, ears and minds shut off so they don't notice unusual activities as part of a routine exercise.
 
SaparotRob said:
The weapons we are sending Ukraine aren't vital for defending Taiwan
Click to expand...
The best way to defend Taiwan is with decisive action in Ukraine. Before the Ukraine invasion China's impression of the US and the West was the same as Russia's, that the West had no military, economic or political will or ability to stand up to aggression. Putin did Xi a favour, by testing those assumptions with Russian lives rather than Chinese ones.

China will move on Taiwan if they perceive those who would defend Taiwan are unable or disinterested in coming to Taiwan's aid. China's problem is that once Russia is defeated the West's military industrial complex needs something else to do. The days of smacking down Islamists and oil-rich mullahs are done. If a wrecked Russia is now contained by thousands of tanks in Poland and Ukraine backed by NATO... well the industry is going to look for its next opportunity. That leaves only China.
 
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It has already been widely acknowledged that the consumption rates/intensite of operations has been higher than some traditionally expected, though to be fair many in NATO expected that any war with Russia/USSR would have won eon for maybe a few days/weeks before escalating. It is a big step though to extrapolate that to a purely "Ukraine will lose" argument.
Referencing a conspiracy theory pandering "alternative news" (their own words) website is hardly a way to justify a position
Already explained that the ramp ups have started.
drgondog said:
Zelensky just fired head of Ukraine Defense Department. How long will Zelensky last?
Click to expand...
Bit loose with the facts here. The Ukrainian Defense Minister has moved sideways - see earlier reporting on this topic. Zelensky is safe
 
I agree with almost everything you say. However from what I understand the Tranche 1 aircraft are more specialised for air to air combat but I don't see that as a problem. With these Typhoons, Ukraine will own the air and that will do a lot to improve the situation on the ground.
They are effective GA aircraft but I think that would be a waste. Both sides have got very effective low to medium level AA equipment but let the Typhoons control the air and keep the Russian fighters off the Su25's as well as stopping the Russian Su25 and other strike aircraft away from attacking the front lines.

One thing that I don't think has been mentioned and that would be the supply of modern ECM to negate the Russian S300 and S400 series missiles.
 
Corruption in Ukraine is endemic. President Zelenskyy was elected on an anti-corruption platform but who hasn't heard that before. However, now under wartime conditions, he seems to be going about reducing corruption, if not eliminating it. Oligarchs with Russian connections must be having a harder time. I've read in a linked article somewhere in this thread that President Zelenskyy is doing a good job but I read just the one article. He certainly is safer from the hit squads that work for the oligarchs.
 
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