The examples for why the "real killers of bombers are fighters", if ground fire was as deadly then there should be similar examples of high losses inflicted by the guns at heavy bomber altitudes. Where fighters were active and able to intercept, from Mighty Eighth War Diary
13 June 1943, Kiel raid, 76 sent, 60 effective, 22 lost, 1 written off.
While the second Schweinfurt raid is noted for its losses, the raids of 8 to 10 October had cost 88 MIA and 8 written off.
11 January 1944, Oschersleben raid, 177 sent, 159 effective, 34 lost, 2 written off.
22 February 1944, Aschersleben raid, 289 sent, 181 effective, 32 lost, 4 written off.
24 February 1944, Gotha raid, 239 sent, 213 effective, 33 lost, 1 written off.
6 March 1944, Berlin raid, 730 sent, 672 effective, 69 lost, 6 written off.
18 March 1944, Friedrichshafen raid, 227 sent, 198 effective, 28 lost, 3 written off.
11 April 1944 raids, 917 sent 826 effective, 64 lost, 5 written off.
29 April 1944, Berlin raid, 679 sent, 618 effective, 63 lost, 2 written off.
12 May 1944, Zwickau raid, 295 sent, 258 effective, 41 lost, 1 written off.
Medium bombers tended to operate above the light flak ceilings.
17 May 1943, the 322nd Group B-26, 11 aircraft low level mission to Holland, 1 abort, remainder shot down by fighters, flak and collisions avoiding hostile fire.
23 December 1944 the 391st Group B-26 versus Luftwaffe fighters, 16 B-26 lost, over half the force. The Luftwaffe fighter threat to the allied light and medium bombers stopped well before the threat to the heavies, more so as the light and medium bombers were usually operating with an escort from the start.
flak was the best killer of airplanes and was equal to fighters as a bomber killer for heavy bombers and the best at it for everything else.
Flak was present for the entire ETO air campaign and in fact increased in density over time, the threat from German fighters decreased markedly from June 1944 onwards. In bombs dropped on Germany terms and therefore sorties the 8th Air force hit its half way point in mid November 1944. If you want to use the for campaign figures like that then consider the USN aircraft carrier landing system was a much more effective weapon for the Japanese than their fighters were against the USN carrier based aircraft.
I flat disagree with "loss rates go up with time spent in hostile airspace." This was WWII, not modern warfare.
Whereas I note the longer you are tracked the more likely you are to be intercepted, plus there were so many flak guns in Germany 1944/45 that it was very hard to avoid being shot at flying to and from the target and easy to make a small navigation mistake that put you over a defended area. Navigation errors go up with distance. As the Swiss found out a few times.
If you take 31 August 1944 as the date the continental airfields became available to take damaged allied heavy bombers then the following figures apply for the 8th Air Force. In the period to 31 August 1944 some 2.7% of B-17s listed as lost to fighters made it back to allied territory, versus 6.4% of those listed as lost to flak. For the period 1 September 1944 to the end of the war the figures become 5.8% and 16.6%.
I have spent about 20 years around WWII warbirds. Their engines are reliable to the point of being almost laughably reliable.
Some of the 1945 15th Air Force monthly reports have Engine Change Reports, graphs of average running time per aircraft engine changed. Generally speaking the R-1830 radials in the B-24 and the R-1820 radials in the B-17 had at least an average of 300 hours running when changed, few had 400, with the R-1820 ahead, most having 350 or more hours. Overhauled engines usually had around half the average hours of new engines. The V-1650 Merlins and the V-1710 Allisons usually averaged over 200 hours, few made it to 300 until March/April. Overhauled Allisons were around half the new engine hours, overhauled Merlins more like a quarter. Post war commercial R-1820s and R-1830s were normally racking up TBOs of about 1500 Hrs. Wat are the TBOs these days?
The 15th Air Force target and duty sheets I have often record the altitude the bombs were released at, the maximum was 32,000 feet by a B-17 group, the highest recorded B-24 altitude was 27,000 feet, it is the only B-24 entry of 26,000 feet or higher, versus the 120 B-17 entries. Lowest bombing altitude, assuming no mistaken entries, was 2,300 feet, then one at 3,500 feet, all other entries are 11,000 feet or higher.
We ran 50+ sorties a day for 3 days once a year. That's 1,500+ sorties. We had a grand total of 5 aborts during those 10+ years.
How many were 4 engined bombers? The 8th Air Force ones had a 4.2% mechanical abort rate. How many sorties in bad weather? The 8th Air Force had a 9.1% weather abort rate. The USSBS weather report notes in cloud cover terms the forecasts were correct 302 times in 524 raids. The B-17 were better able to fly above bad weather. The 9th Air Force P-47, 201,546 sorties, of which 11,096 were non effective or 5.5%, broken down by cause 5,418 weather, 244 personnel, 3,322 mechanical and 2,112 other causes. Have you done a study to discover why your abort rates are so much less than the wartime ones? So you are sure you are comparing like with like, like available maintenance facilities, stresses put on the aircraft? Mission requirements? Total flying times? Operational tempo?
Weather is a factor only when it is extreme. Flying in clouds won't make you crash unless you have a midair, which is unlikely in formation but more likely in combat.
Even in formations as tight as the 8th Air Force heavy bombers? The night bombers could operate in worse weather as they were not trying to fly in formation.
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If Roger Freeman is correct in May 1944 the 1st Division started a policy of removing the radio room gun and one waist gunner from its B-17s, mainly for centre of gravity reasons, both waist guns were retained though. In March 1945 the 381st group was flying without ball turrets, the 91st without waist guns or gunners, the 398th without chin turrets and the 94th without chin and ball turrets. The 398th liked the performance increase. In June 1944 the 8th Air Force HQ gave permission to remove the ball turrets from its B-24s, it was a decision left to the groups so some removed the turret and others kept it.
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"THE FORTY-FOURTH HARMON MEMORIAL LECTURE IN MILITARY HISTORY,… The Boeing B-17 Flying Fortress was the anvil against which the USAAF fighter force hammered the Luftwaffe fighter arm…
The B-17 was a singular design for which there would have been no viable substitute until the B-29… Even before long range fighters were available to escort deep penetrations, massed formations of B-17s took a significant toll of the Luftwaffe fighter arm.
the B-24 was nonetheless inferior to the B-17 in every critical performance parameter that counted in the European theater of operations save maximum range… the study showed that four engine bombers were significantly more accurate than twin engine bombers across the board."
If the anvil is correct the Luftwaffe was ignoring raids done by B-24, which would make the B-24 far better than the B-17, zero air to air losses. The 8th Air Force concluded the B-17 was better for it but the results show the B-24 could have been used instead. The USAAF Statistical Digest notes the ETO lost 599 heavy bombers to fighters to end October 1943 and the MTO 166. Assuming a 1 to 1 kill ratio, that makes it 765 Luftwaffe fighters, but the 1943 exchange rate is more like 3 bombers to 2 fighters, so around 500 fighters shot down. Note the critical parameters are not listed in the article, which is a flag that opinion is being used.
Remember when it comes to bombing accuracy at some point you have to decide the miss is so great the bombers were in fact attacking a different target. The raid on Huls (22 June 1943, 224 B-17s despatched plus 11 YB40s, 183 attacked 15 B-17s and 1 YB-40 lost) is a prime example of a USAAF raid that caused heavy damage. After the raid the bomb craters were found over an area of 12 square miles, 20% of the bombs dropped hit the 541 acre (0.84 square miles) site. If the site were a square then each side fence would be 4,650 feet long. In 1943 one strike on the Focke-Wulf factory at Marienburg, 598 500lb bombs were dropped, 286 fell in the factory area and at least 35 hit buildings, 5.8% accuracy if the analysis is correct, this was considered a substantial improvement in the accuracy shown so far. Note that while many bombs fell close most still missed.
The USSBS bombing accuracy reports the B-17 was more accurate than the B-24, but of course the medium bombers were more accurate than both, the direct result of bombing from lower altitudes. In any case the difference in B-17 versus B-24 accuracy was small compared with the other factors. The 15th Air Force was more accurate than the 8th as it was able to do more training on the electronic bombing aids. Being the first formation over the target gave you 82% accuracy, being the fifth meant 30% accuracy, attacking a 1,000 foot target a 9 wide aircraft formation scored 100, 6 wide formation 110.6, and a 3 wide formation 142.2. Turn up with 3 bomber boxes and bomb from 10,000 feet the expected circular error was 570 feet, using 15 boxes 765 feet, 3 boxes at 25,000 feet error 1,047 feet, 15 boxes 1,242 feet. In the final four months of 1944 the 8th Air Force bombs within 1,000 feet of the aiming point, 30% in fair to good visibility, 9.4% in poor visibility, 5% using GH, 5% using Micro H, then using H2X in, 4 to 5/10 cloud 4.4%, 6 to 7/10 cloud 2%, 8 to 9/10 cloud 1%, 10/10 cloud 0.2%.
The B-17 was a better aircraft to fly in and pilot than the B-24, it was more reliable and more accurate a bomber but the differences between the two types as used in Europe were much smaller than the other factors involved, like the chances of being intercepted, flak and smoke defences, sighting methods, formation tactics, training time, weather effects and the size of the attack.
Engage smiling systems before proceeding. "no viable substitute" Say in round terms the 8th Air Force had 1,000 fighters and 2,500 bombers, when you look at the dollar cost of aircraft and the manpower in the combat units you discover the ratio is 3.5 P-51 to 1 B-17. If you want a back of envelope total hindsight 8th Air Force and assuming the Lancaster follows this costing then change the 8th Air Force to 1,500 Lancasters and 4,500 P-51. The average Lancaster bomb load was 10,065 pounds versus the average B-17/24 load of 5,194 pounds, so average bomb lift becomes 7,500 versus 6,500 short tons and able to drop the more destructive larger size bombs. The P-51 pilots then rotate the three missions, sit beside your pet Lancaster all mission, standard 8th Air Force escort and look for trouble in the area around the bomber force. If you want altitude performance consider the Lancaster VI with two stage Merlins, with only a rear turret fitted it had a top speed around 345 mph which translated to cruising speeds comes close to the fighter cruise speeds and should cut about an hour out of any mission to Germany with associated decreases in interception chances and winter daylight problems. Perhaps fit a pair of forward firing machine guns under pilot control to counter head on attacks. Adjust according to preferences, 100 bombers to 350 fighters one up, the other down.