According to many sources (eg Price) it took an average of 20 x 20mm shells to take down a US bomber. Where 1 or 2 x 30mm could do it.
When they worked out the average pilot's accuracy, most would take their full ammo load to knock one out, more likely just damage it.
Hence the heavy twins usefulness and gondolas under wings with big guns for the singles (at the price of lowered performance).
The Germans actually reckoned on 5x30mms being required to take down a Viermot with certainty, though you're right about them having reckoned on 20x20mm as well.
The table at the end of this pdf rates various weapons combinations for the late war Luftwaffe. Their aim was to get a high rate of fire of destructive shells with a low-weight weapons combination - they reckoned on 5% hits from aimed fire. Top of the class was a weapons mount of two 30mm MG 213/30 (not sure if it ever saw service, not my area of knowledge), which the boffins rated as 1.0, which was then compared to the combination of weight and required firing time, based on 5% hits, rate of fire and ammo and ammo used of other weapons setups (six MG 151/15s, four 20mm cannon, two 30mm cannon and one 50 mm cannon).
Their numbers showed the BK 50mm as next to useless. View attachment ammunitions.pdf