The Japanese could certainly attack Hawaii if Midway had gone the other way.
Having even a successful attack is another story let alone an invasion.
I believe there are other threads on this.
It seems some people are making assumptions as to Hawaii's defences that may not stand up to scrutiny. Hawaii's defences did not depend entirely on the Navy or even the Navy and AAC combined. Hawaii is a lousy place to try to do an amphibious landing on.
The suitable beaches are few and well known (invasion scenarios had been war-gamed many times by local forces from the 1920s on.) There had been a frenzy of fortification construction from the date of Pearl Harbor. Ground forces had been much increased (and Hawaii was a staging area for the upcoming Allied offences, The US did not win at Midway and
then decide to attack Guadalcanal and send everything for the Guadalcanal operation from the west coast.
Within weeks of Pearl Harbor two convoys of troops and equipment had left west coast ports with their arrival in Hawaii army ground forces were over 58,000 men.
"the unit reinforcements included two regiments of infantry, one regiment each of field artillery and coast artillery, and light tank, signal, and railway artillery battalions"
Further reinforcements were sent later and the outer Hawaiian Islands got garrisons and light support weapons.
However " With small additions during March, the authorized strength of the department became at the beginning of April 106,000 ground and 16,000 air troops, including replacements for all soldiers of Japanese descent; and the department reached these strengths before the end of June 1942. The Army air units to be retained in the islands for local defense were to contain 96 heavy and 24 medium and light bombers and 225 pursuit planes, and the Navy was obligated to keep 67 patrol planes on hand for long-range and local reconnaissance. "
Number of Army planes fluctuated and sometimes did not reach the totals in the passage quoted. Just before Midway there were 56 B-17s in Hawaii and 12 of them were sent to Midway on May 30th, however by June 10th 60 more B-17s had reached Hawaii. With the Midway victory some of them were sent on to other places in the south Pacific.
The American troops may have been green and perhaps not well trained but it is the Japanese who are trying to attack prepare positions over narrow beaches and into very challenging terrain.
There are often not a lot of flanking options for an attacker. Oahu is small 44 miles long and 30 miles wide. Modern map.
Like I said earlier. Beaches suitable for landing were well known and pre zeroed by defensive guns, avenues of attack once on the beaches were also well known and limited.
the two modern highways up through the center of the Island are only possible by tunnels through the ridge.
The Philippines were large, many places had to be defended and while the terrain could be rugged the distances allowed flanking maneuvers.
resupply for the Japanese would take weeks if not well over a month for a round trip by a ship.
Despite allied fears the Japanese had about reached the end of their logistical rope with areas they had already taken. They had neither the transport capacity nor the fuel oil to support far flung invasion schemes.