Essex v. Kusnetsov - Is a reactivated Essex class carrier a better buy than a new Kusnetsov?
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Just a wee note about Chinese carrier development and converting the Varyag - the Chinese did a good job on this. The Chinese have been investigating developing carriers for years and bought the hulls of four retired carriers for reference and study, these were the Varyag, which became the Liaoning as we know, the Soviet navy flagships Kiev and Minsk and the Australian Majestic Class carrier HMAS Melbourne. So it had a bit of research material before conversion of the Varyag began. The resulting Liaoning was only ever meant to be a training ship, a role it serves today, with the Shandong, it's indigenous successor currently the only Chinese carrier in service, but again an interim before the Fujian enters service, a full CATOBAR carrier equipped with EMALS, or so it's advertised. The system has been trialled on land but the extent of which is not yet revealed. The Fujian was launched a few weeks ago and is a big ship, it's the largest carrier built outside of the USA and represents an entirely new step in Chinese carrier evolution, the Chinese are not messing around with this.
Kiev 101
The Kiev is now an amusement park complex, see my photos here:
The problem with the Shandong and Liaoning is its air group comprising J-15 Flying Shark aircraft, which is a licence built Su-27 and on paper look impressive, but are, according to online sources, really unreliable and maintenance prone, and for a carrier aircraft are heavy and because of the lack of catapult to get them off the deck, limited in useful warload. The Fujian will be equipped with the J-15T, which is a derivative of the Su-30MKL and the J-15D, which is an electronic warfare variant of the Su-30 basis airframe. Operating from Fujian means these are CATOBAR capable. A new indigenous carrier fighter, the J-35 Gyrfalcon is currently undergoing flight testing, although like most modern Chinese designs there's a lot of supposition out there but very little real hard evidence as to its capabilities. The Chinese have also flown the KJ-600, an E-2 Hawkeye lookalike, which is expected to eventually see service aboard the Fujian. It's full steam ahead and worth keeping an eye on China to see what they do next in terms of carrier aviation, because present developments are just the beginning...
The Kiev is now an amusement park complex, see my photos here:
The problem with the Shandong and Liaoning is its air group comprising J-15 Flying Shark aircraft, which is a licence built Su-27 and on paper look impressive, but are, according to online sources, really unreliable and maintenance prone, and for a carrier aircraft are heavy and because of the lack of catapult to get them off the deck, limited in useful warload. The Fujian will be equipped with the J-15T, which is a derivative of the Su-30MKL and the J-15D, which is an electronic warfare variant of the Su-30 basis airframe. Operating from Fujian means these are CATOBAR capable. A new indigenous carrier fighter, the J-35 Gyrfalcon is currently undergoing flight testing, although like most modern Chinese designs there's a lot of supposition out there but very little real hard evidence as to its capabilities. The Chinese have also flown the KJ-600, an E-2 Hawkeye lookalike, which is expected to eventually see service aboard the Fujian. It's full steam ahead and worth keeping an eye on China to see what they do next in terms of carrier aviation, because present developments are just the beginning...
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Another problem they're going to have is doctrine: how to use these assets efficiently in accordance with national aims. Supporting an invasion of Taiwan? Why, when you have land-based a/c nearby? Using them to project blue-water power? Well, there's another fleet of carriers that have been doing that for a while, have plenty of practice, and the Chinese carriers won't be operating under an umbrella of air-force/A2-AD missiles to counterbalance that opposing fleet.
Consider also the institutional experience of the various navies, not to mention the specific capabilities of the equipment under consideration.
Consider also the institutional experience of the various navies, not to mention the specific capabilities of the equipment under consideration.
You might want to investigate China's current international trading partners and its Belt and Road strategy to glean how and where it might use these ships.
The problem is the USA and Russia think that maintaining a strategic position in world power is earned by building a shit ton of weapons, or the hard approach to world domination, but China is clever, it's becoming a world power by buying its way into global markets to cement its interests and building an armed forces to support these.
China has sneakily been buying up deep water ports around the world, in countries as diverse as Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Greece and even France and Britain. It has strategic interests in North Africa and South Asia and therefore it has gained control of strategic ports in some of the world's busiest waterways to support its trade routes. This is aside from its activities in the Nine Dash Line in the South China Sea. It has been making business deals with countries as far flung as Tanzania, Argentina, Australia, and Scotland.
Despite the hopes of the previous US administration in applying tariffs to Chinese imported goods, China, by proxy is still one of the USA's biggest trading partners and it avoids paying tariffs by simply making goods, then exporting them for final assembly in a foreign country, like Viet Nam or Mexico, so it can claim they are not Chinese made. Buy a Huawei or Oppo phone in the USA and it will have got there without a cent paid on tariffs. How? Made somewhere else... China operates a soft approach to global geo-politics and is dominating world markets with home made products. While we are monitoring its rapidly expanding military capability, it is becoming trading partners with the world's biggest economies. It has interests to protect around the world.
As for experience, that's what Liaoning and Shandong are for. As I said, the Fujian is only the beginning.
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Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Yeah, I'm pretty aware of that. Indeed, we sort of did the same thing with the IMF and the Breton Woods system, in a fashion. I think the borrowers from China are discovering themselves that the loans have hooks.
That could well play against the Chinese interests in where and how they station their ships.
Right, but possession being 9/10s of the law, they might have problems refueling and revictualing from countries which they themselves have put into penury with high interest rates and whatnot.
Right, but you've got to earn that experience, while at least two other navies already have it.
Liaoning has progressed beyond being a mere training ship. The Chinese have recently been able to deploy both Liaoning & Shandong.Just a wee note about Chinese carrier development and converting the Varyag - the Chinese did a good job on this. The Chinese have been investigating developing carriers for years and bought the hulls of four retired carriers for reference and study, these were the Varyag, which became the Liaoning as we know, the Soviet navy flagships Kiev and Minsk and the Australian Majestic Class carrier HMAS Melbourne. So it had a bit of research material before conversion of the Varyag began. The resulting Liaoning was only ever meant to be a training ship, a role it serves today, with the Shandong, it's indigenous successor currently the only Chinese carrier in service, but again an interim before the Fujian enters service, a full CATOBAR carrier equipped with EMALS, or so it's advertised. The system has been trialled on land but the extent of which is not yet revealed. The Fujian was launched a few weeks ago and is a big ship, it's the largest carrier built outside of the USA and represents an entirely new step in Chinese carrier evolution, the Chinese are not messing around with this.
View attachment 677396Kiev 101
The Kiev is now an amusement park complex, see my photos here:
The problem with the Shandong and Liaoning is its air group comprising J-15 Flying Shark aircraft, which is a licence built Su-27 and on paper look impressive, but are, according to online sources, really unreliable and maintenance prone, and for a carrier aircraft are heavy and because of the lack of catapult to get them off the deck, limited in useful warload. The Fujian will be equipped with the J-15T, which is a derivative of the Su-30MKL and the J-15D, which is an electronic warfare variant of the Su-30 basis airframe. Operating from Fujian means these are CATOBAR capable. A new indigenous carrier fighter, the J-35 Gyrfalcon is currently undergoing flight testing, although like most modern Chinese designs there's a lot of supposition out there but very little real hard evidence as to its capabilities. The Chinese have also flown the KJ-600, an E-2 Hawkeye lookalike, which is expected to eventually see service aboard the Fujian. It's full steam ahead and worth keeping an eye on China to see what they do next in terms of carrier aviation, because present developments are just the beginning...
The PLAN first deployed the Liaoning into the Pacific beyond the first island barrier in 2018. They have now done it twice in 6 months. In Dec 2021 she operated in waters east of Taiwan and South of Okinawa. At the same time Shandong was deployed in the China Sea. The capability is clearly building and Fujian represents another step forward, albeit one that is probably several years from being fully operational.
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... p-incoming
Chinese Carrier Strike Group Liaoning Returns From Deployment - USNI News
The post has been updated to correct the type of fighters embarked aboard the PLAN carrier Liaoning. The fighters are J-15s not JF-17s. KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – The People’s Liberation Army Navy Liaoning carrier group returned to its homeport of Qingdao on Dec. 30 after a successful training...
news.usni.org
Chinese Carrier Strike Group Now Operating in East China Sea - USNI News
China’s Liaoning Carrier Strike Group is now operating in the East China Sea after conducting drills in the Pacific Ocean and the Philippine Sea for more than two weeks, the Japan Ministry of Defense said over the weekend. The majority of the group transited the Miyako Strait on Saturday, the...
news.usni.org
Chinese aircraft carriers in separate South China Sea, Pacific drills
Shandong is conducting ‘combat-oriented exercises’ in the contested waterway, while the Liaoning is in the western Pacific.
www.scmp.com
Shandong is currently getting a short refit.
And like the RN the Chinese seem to be experimenting with carrier launched drones.
Drones included in refit for China’s second aircraft carrier Shandong
Seven UAVs seen on the flat-top’s deck in official video as the vessel undergoes scheduled maintenance after two years of service.
www.scmp.com
And carrier 004, even larger than Fujian, is being planned. But given current build times it is likely to be towards the end of your 10 year time frame. But the carrier capability is building. Not an immediate threat to the USN in the region. How long before the Chinese decide to deploy a carrier group to make "goodwill" visits to other nations in the region?
That's blatantly obvious, Ewen. This is because the ships are the only operational carriers in the PLAN, they won't remain as such once the bigger carriers are in service. Since the Fujian was launched only a few weeks ago, that won't happen for awhile.
The problem is we're getting this bit wrong. We automatically think these ships are designed to compare to or provide a threat to the US military. China is not building up its military to deliberately threaten US military dominance. The US thinks it is. It is building up its armed forces to protect its interests.
This might be news to most of you but China doesn't want war with the US, it wants trade with the US. Does the Chinese armed forces count the US military as a threat? Of course, but only if it impinges on Chinese interests. Why wouldn't China build a modern armed forces? It's surrounded by countries with advanced and capable militaries, RoK, Japan and Taiwan, and regarding Taiwan, the reason it is reacting to US support for Taiwanese independence is because China believes Taiwan is a part of mainland China and wants it for itself. This is the US most definitely impinging on Chinese interests.
As I mentioned, China is buying up territory and resources all round the world to satisfy its needs. It takes advantage of geo-political situations, like war in the Middle East, the impact of the GFC on weakened European economies and fractious US politics to gain trading partners and to bolster its influence (While the world was staring open-mouthed at the previous US administration, China was buying deep water ports and forging trade agreements with countries the US no longer supported - goodbye TPP, hello CCP!)
Chinese interests own the Greek port of Piraeus, once a major ship building enterprise and money earner for Greece, but now it's in Chinese hands. China makes trade deals with African countries and extracts natural materials and builds outposts, for the supply of goods, such as weapons, vehicles, surveillance systems etc. China has troops deployed in Djibouti of all places. This is a difficult prospect for a foreign nation as African countries levy heavy tariffs on exports (and Africans don't exactly have a good history with foreign nations), but the Chinese don't. It's cheaper for Nigeria to import goods from China than it is from Egypt and this neatly suits the Chinese.
Since Africa and Greece and other European ports it owns are a long way from China, it is building its blue water navy.
Again with the assumption that China is wanting to go toe to toe with the USA. It doesn't. American strategists can't help themselves in comparing militaries with their own to satisfy their own superiority complex, but they wholly misunderstand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing. Gaining experience is exactly what China is doing right now. Never misunderestimate your enemies...
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Again with the assumption that China is wanting to go toe to toe with the USA. It doesn't. American strategists can't help themselves in comparing militaries with their own to satisfy their own superiority complex, but they wholly misunderstand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing. Gaining experience is exactly what China is doing right now. Never misunderestimate your enemies...
I'm not saying that China wants to do that. Indeed, I believe they don't, because the current regime has a historical preference for the exercise of soft power rather than hard. I think they understand full-well how costly wars are, having seen their own country ravaged by one.
However, if we are to compare the militaries, and that's what's being done here, pointing out their weaknesses is not necessarily evidence of chauvinism on my part. I reject that insinuation for myself. I have a healthy respect for them as a world-power.
Maybe you should explain to those strategists exactly what you think the Chinese are doing, since you seem to think they've got it so wrong.
Why should I do it? If they can't figure it out for themselves, then it is the USA that'll fall behind geo-politically while waving its guns in the air. The US spends more on defence than any other country in the world, how do you expect the rest of the world to react as a consequence of that?
I suspect this thread is catching the eye of the mods with all this geo-political stuff, but we do need to keep a close eye on China, for obvious reasons. What it's done with the knowledge accumulated from investigating aircraft carriers is nothing short of remarkable and shows what happens when we are distracted by other things.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Well, I figure if you've got some insights they aren't aware of, and you're worried about China's influence, it might be helpful.
I have no doubt that in three decades or so they'll have a formidable fleet. They're already very strong. They aim to use it to isolate Taiwan from support, in my estimation -- the same reason why they're building artificial islands to the south, and building A2-AD missiles that can range a thousand miles or more.
They of course have every right to build a navy to protect their own interests. But it behooves anyone whose interests might be threatened by Chinese ambitions to analyze their capabilities, which is what I've been doing.
Only if they pay me for them!
China is gonna do what China is gonna do regardless of who gets in their way. China doesn't subscribe to military alliances as much as we do in the West, although naturally the Chinese have their supporters. Those who don't support China will, not surprisingly turn to the USA and her allies, but the lesson is our attitude toward alliances versus what the Chinese are actually doing. If Chinese interests buy a big port on the Straits of Malacca (which they have done) and park a fleet of frigates and destroyers there, threatening Singaporean interests, there's not a lot anyone can do about it. This is the dichotomy of Chinese global expansion.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Only if they pay me for them!
China is gonna do what China is gonna do regardless of who gets in their way. China doesn't subscribe to military alliances as much as we do in the West, although naturally the Chinese have their supporters. Those who don't support China will, not surprisingly turn to the USA and her allies, but the lesson is our attitude toward alliances versus what the Chinese are actually doing. If Chinese interests buy a big port on the Straits of Malacca (which they have done) and park a fleet of frigates and destroyers there, threatening Singaporean interests, there's not a lot anyone can do about it. This is the dichotomy of Chinese global expansion.
Right. They are a superpower and must be treated as such, much as America is as well, and the USSR was.
I wouldn't want a shooting war with China, but I wouldn't want them governing any more of the world than they already do, either.
I'd like to think that's up to them, rather than us; modern China has a notorious disregard for the sovereignty of others. Our problem, if any would be to underestimate their armed forces, especially in light of how the Russians are behaving in Ukraine. Just because they use a lot of Russian designs doesn't mean the Chinese military would be as inept at handling them.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
It's hard to say. Their army hasn't fought on the ground in over forty years, and didn't do so well that time. Their navy hasn't fought a major naval battle in well over a century. That's why I mentioned doctrine upthread. All the good gear in the world -- and the Chinese gear appears to be superior to Russian gear at this point, due to them having caught up on both R&D and having better chip designers -- still doesn't matter if the way it's used doen't take advantage of its capabilities. And doctrine arises from experience, usually.
That's not to say they can't or won't do well. That's entirely possible. But in carrier ops in particular, the ballet may be hard to learn from scratch.
Yup, this certainly raises questions and it occurred to me as I wrote my previous post, but I suspect the Chinese are a canny lot, much more so than the Russians, who do have much combat experience over the last ten years or so, yet are frequently demonstrating weaknesses in their tactics. If there is anything the Chinese are good at it's watching and learning.
I would agree that their hardware, especially electronics are far superior to Russia's, as are their weapons. They are making the best of every piece of hardware they get their paws on.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
I think the Russians, in the current instance, were and are suffering a form of lockmind, where they're wedded to past tactics rather than understanding that Ukraine is so much larger than Chechnya or Ossetia that familiar tactics are useless. There's a historical precedent in that the Germans thought the same tactics that subdued France could also work in Barbarossa, no?
It's a form of operational lethargy, or fossilization perhaps.
They have industry building some of the best chips in the world, writing some of the strongest software in the world, and are accustomed to integrating the two. I also think they aren't as doctrinaire in how they apply that.
Their issues with building reliable modern jet engines are present currently, but they will solve those. How those metallurgical issues translate to/interact with shipbuilding might be an interesting question, too. Turbines are pretty complicated. When they want to practice stringent QC/QA, though, they can and have done so, and so this too will be something they will overcome.
