Hi Davparlr,
>But, these SAM systems would be facing a multitude and massive countermeasures and threats and would have to defeat all of them to be effective.
First, the Allies would be facing a massive SAM threat. And you don't just pull "countermeasures" as a completely functional package out of your magician's hat - you develop them slowly and painfully while you're being shot at (and with more than a remote chance, shot down).
If the Allies would have suffered twice the losses they suffered in early 1944, or three times the losses they suffered in late 1944, they'd probably have had to stop their bombing offensive.
As we have seen, SAMs realistically promised to make the air defense more cost-effective by a factor of one hundred or better.
That means that just to keep their losses down to the maximum ratio that could be accepted without stopping the bombing offensive, the Allied countermeasures would have had to defeat 98 out of 100 SAMs launched.
I think you can assume that both sides were by this time equally adept at Radar and ECM, and that such a degree of superiority on side of the Allied countermeasures was entirely out of the question.
>>Obviously, it would be the Allies who'd have to learn the first lesson ... how to jam SAMs. That's a lesson you can only learn under fire.
>True. But this cycle occurred over and over during the war and losses were incurred and endured.
Well, what would have happened if the German had fielded a month's production of SAMs against targets consisting of large formations of low-flying, slow-flying, big, unmanoeuvrable heavy bombers not equipped with any jamming equipment at all? It would have made Schweinfurt look like a children's birthday party in comparison.
The Allies would have had a hard time learning anything about jamming because they'd not know in advance that electronic surveillance would be imperative on that mission. As the SAMs were largely to rely on existing Flak radar sets, they'd leave a small electronic footprint anyhow.
So even assuming that the Allies realized what the threat was (not a given, since the thought of piloted kamikaze interceptors probably wouldn't be so far off), they'd have to launch another large mission unprepared for jamming just so that they could gather intelligence. (Small raids of course would have been ignored by the SAMs.) The result? Hardly better chances of survival than the first time around, thus the second Schweinfurt-style defeat to SAMs ...
The third big raid might have had to be postponed until jammers were developed (assuming that sufficient electronic intelligence could be gathered). Then the reaid ... and a fair share of SAMs could be jammed. Problem is, with SAM production ramping up and an undisturbed period due to the delay to develop jammers, a much larger number of SAMs in an increased number of position would be ready, killing just as many bombers as before, albeit at a clearly reduced hit chance per missile. Third Schweinfurt in a row.
Fourth big raid ... perfected jammers, Luftwaffe SAMs prove useless.
Fifth big raid ... second type of Luftwaffe SAM with different guidance system unknown to the Allied is fielded in numbers. Jammers are of no use, fourth Schweinfurt.
Sixth and seventh raid ... see second and third.
How many defeats of this kind could the Allies take without having to abandon their bombing offensive? Just a handful would probably have stopped it dead in its tracks.
>But without high speed processors and sophisticated netting, I think the German air defenses by sheer volume and would be overwhelmed as they were in 44-45.
The German air defense system was perfectly capable of tracking the large Viermot raids of 1944 and 1945 just fine, and the mechanical analog computers of the Flak were fully up to the task, too. It was actually shooting down the bombers that posed the problem, and the SAMs were far more accurate than the Flak that did not manage to achieve the high loss rates required to stop the Allied bombing campaign historically.
>I don't have any EMC references, but googling came up with several radar jammers used by the Allies.
Thanks, looks like it was not totally unknown technology like I first thought.
>As for countering chaff, since chaff is a valuable modern technique for defeating radar locks of very powerful radars, I some how doubt that the Germans figured out how to completely defeat it.
Remember that the main use of chaff is to defeat terminal guidance - which might not even have been based on radar in the German SAMs. And again, it comes down to numbers ... could chaff have defeated 98 out of 100 SAMs? I doubt that.
>I have one resource that said that only 25% of the Wasserfalls prototypes got past the crashing stage.
That's the way of rocket development. The V-2 maintained a similar crash rate through 1943 too, but it entered series production in early 1944 anyway - and proved reliable enough in actual operations (even though it did not contribute much towards the war effort).
>None of these would provide a large footprint, if any, above 30k ft.
The limited altitude capability of conventional artillery is another reason that SAMs would have been far more dangerous than Flak ever was, even to more advanced aircraft that might have been fielded in 1946 or later.
Regards,
Henning (HoHun)
>But, these SAM systems would be facing a multitude and massive countermeasures and threats and would have to defeat all of them to be effective.
First, the Allies would be facing a massive SAM threat. And you don't just pull "countermeasures" as a completely functional package out of your magician's hat - you develop them slowly and painfully while you're being shot at (and with more than a remote chance, shot down).
If the Allies would have suffered twice the losses they suffered in early 1944, or three times the losses they suffered in late 1944, they'd probably have had to stop their bombing offensive.
As we have seen, SAMs realistically promised to make the air defense more cost-effective by a factor of one hundred or better.
That means that just to keep their losses down to the maximum ratio that could be accepted without stopping the bombing offensive, the Allied countermeasures would have had to defeat 98 out of 100 SAMs launched.
I think you can assume that both sides were by this time equally adept at Radar and ECM, and that such a degree of superiority on side of the Allied countermeasures was entirely out of the question.
>>Obviously, it would be the Allies who'd have to learn the first lesson ... how to jam SAMs. That's a lesson you can only learn under fire.
>True. But this cycle occurred over and over during the war and losses were incurred and endured.
Well, what would have happened if the German had fielded a month's production of SAMs against targets consisting of large formations of low-flying, slow-flying, big, unmanoeuvrable heavy bombers not equipped with any jamming equipment at all? It would have made Schweinfurt look like a children's birthday party in comparison.
The Allies would have had a hard time learning anything about jamming because they'd not know in advance that electronic surveillance would be imperative on that mission. As the SAMs were largely to rely on existing Flak radar sets, they'd leave a small electronic footprint anyhow.
So even assuming that the Allies realized what the threat was (not a given, since the thought of piloted kamikaze interceptors probably wouldn't be so far off), they'd have to launch another large mission unprepared for jamming just so that they could gather intelligence. (Small raids of course would have been ignored by the SAMs.) The result? Hardly better chances of survival than the first time around, thus the second Schweinfurt-style defeat to SAMs ...
The third big raid might have had to be postponed until jammers were developed (assuming that sufficient electronic intelligence could be gathered). Then the reaid ... and a fair share of SAMs could be jammed. Problem is, with SAM production ramping up and an undisturbed period due to the delay to develop jammers, a much larger number of SAMs in an increased number of position would be ready, killing just as many bombers as before, albeit at a clearly reduced hit chance per missile. Third Schweinfurt in a row.
Fourth big raid ... perfected jammers, Luftwaffe SAMs prove useless.
Fifth big raid ... second type of Luftwaffe SAM with different guidance system unknown to the Allied is fielded in numbers. Jammers are of no use, fourth Schweinfurt.
Sixth and seventh raid ... see second and third.
How many defeats of this kind could the Allies take without having to abandon their bombing offensive? Just a handful would probably have stopped it dead in its tracks.
>But without high speed processors and sophisticated netting, I think the German air defenses by sheer volume and would be overwhelmed as they were in 44-45.
The German air defense system was perfectly capable of tracking the large Viermot raids of 1944 and 1945 just fine, and the mechanical analog computers of the Flak were fully up to the task, too. It was actually shooting down the bombers that posed the problem, and the SAMs were far more accurate than the Flak that did not manage to achieve the high loss rates required to stop the Allied bombing campaign historically.
>I don't have any EMC references, but googling came up with several radar jammers used by the Allies.
Thanks, looks like it was not totally unknown technology like I first thought.
>As for countering chaff, since chaff is a valuable modern technique for defeating radar locks of very powerful radars, I some how doubt that the Germans figured out how to completely defeat it.
Remember that the main use of chaff is to defeat terminal guidance - which might not even have been based on radar in the German SAMs. And again, it comes down to numbers ... could chaff have defeated 98 out of 100 SAMs? I doubt that.
>I have one resource that said that only 25% of the Wasserfalls prototypes got past the crashing stage.
That's the way of rocket development. The V-2 maintained a similar crash rate through 1943 too, but it entered series production in early 1944 anyway - and proved reliable enough in actual operations (even though it did not contribute much towards the war effort).
>None of these would provide a large footprint, if any, above 30k ft.
The limited altitude capability of conventional artillery is another reason that SAMs would have been far more dangerous than Flak ever was, even to more advanced aircraft that might have been fielded in 1946 or later.
Regards,
Henning (HoHun)