Getting back a bit to the potential UK shipbuilding program if no war in Europe (at least not with UK involved in it yet), do i understand correctly that if not for the war they would have probably continued to build 1-2 CV, 2 BBs, 7 cruisers and 2-3 DD flotillas in both 1940 and 1941? As i understand they wanted at least another pair of Implacables in 1940 but this was not done due to the war situation. Also, when was Vanguard supposed to be laid down if not for the war situation, perhaps 1940? Do you think they have the capacity to lay down all 6 Lions by 1942, or they would have to pare down the number anyway (maybe 4 plus Vanguard?).
Regarding carriers, apart from the 8 armoured ones, iirc at some point they wanted 6 smaller "trade protection" carriers, presumably something akin to Unicorn or the later Colossus CVL? Don't know if they will start building some of these in 1940 or 1941, would be interesting what more informed folks know on the subject.
As a sidenote, without the war in Europe, many of the lessons RN (with significant impact in ship design) and UK as a whole learned the (very) hard way would not have been learned yet when going against Japan in this ATL. So at first i think many of those lessons will be learned the hard way against the japanese. I would not be surprised in the least if a lot of equipment sent in FE initially would still be second rate even if there is no war in Europe, since the british and western powers in general were looking down on the japanese.
1938 Programme
2 Lion class BB - ordered 2/39, laid down 6-7/39. Est completion in Sept 1939 was 8/42. Suspended later in 1939.
Implacable - ordered 10/38, laid down 2/39. Est completion in Sept 1939 was 10/41
3 Dido class cruisers - ordered 8/38, laid down 11/38-4/39. Est completion 1941
4 Colony class cruisers - ordered March 1939, laid down 4-7/39. Est completion 10/41 - 6/42
No destroyers
3 Abdiel class fast minelayers - ordered 12/38, laid down 3-4/39
3 River gunboats
3 T class subs
Unicorn (aircraft maintenance ship) - ordered 4/39, laid down 6/39.
Depot ships Hecla & Adamant
1939 Programme
2 Lion class BB - 1 ordered 8/39, the other to be ordered 11/39. Both suspended on outbreak of WW2
Indefatigable - ordered 6/39, laid down 11/39. Est completion 6/42
2 Colony class- to be built in Royal Dockyards but cancelled at end of Sept 1939
2 Colony class - planned for order in March 1940 but see below in War Programme.
1 Abdiel class minelayer
M & N class destroyers - 16 ships
2 Black Swan class sloops
20 Hunt class destroyers
1 River gunboat - cancelled
54 Flower class corvettes
10 Flower class corvettes built in Canada in exchange for Britain building the first 2 Canadian Tribals.
1939 War Programme ordered 4/9/30 to 1/40
6 Dido class
2 Colony class cruisers - ordered 4/9/39 (brought forward by about 6 months from previous plans)
16 O & P class destroyers
36 Hunt class destroyers (20 in Sept 1939 and another 16 in Dec)
7 T class subs
5 S class subs
12 U class subs
48 Flower class corvettes
When we come to the 1940 Programme it becomes more complicated as war approached. So the final Programme was not what was envisaged when discussions about it began in July 1939. But initially it looked something like this (extracted from Moore "Building for Victory"):-
2 Lion class - talks with industry suggested orders could be placed with Swan Hunter and Harland & Wolff around 7-8/40 with completion 42 months later i.e. early 1944. caveat that assumed delivery of armour, guns and mounts on the required schedule.
New 15" gun BB could be built at VA Tyne in an optimistic 36 months subject to the above caveats. But that depended on the H&W gun factory on the Clyde having the gun pits reinstated before any work on refurbishing the old turrets from Courageous & Glorious could begin.
A
maximum programme
could include
1
or 2 carriers
7-9 Dido/Colony class cruisers
2 depot ships
2 fast minelayers
2 fleet destroyer flotillas (16 ships) of K class or possibly a new class
4 Hunts
4 Black Swans
The position re subs was unknown at that time.
And there was also a new Royal Yacht in the mix!!!
On 15 Aug 1939 Sir Stanley Goodall noted in his diary that the Controller of the Navy wanted:
4 BB
2 carriers
4 Heavy 8" cruisers
6 Small cruisers
PER YEAR!!!
I've already talked in this and earlier posts about what happened on the outbreak of WW2 so won't repeat it here. But in the latter part of 1939 there is a huge amount of chopping and changing, plans made, plans changed. Even ships already building or planned were being affected with completion dates pushed back.
So in Jan 1940 the 1940 Programme now looked like this as a plan only:-
2 Lion class
New 15" gun BB
2 carriers (a new assessment was that the fleet now needed a total of 14/15)
5 Belfast type cruisers
5 Dido class cruisers
Of that little lot the only survivors as actual orders were the 15" BB in the shape of Vanguard and 1 carrier, tentatively named Irresistible, intended as a modified Implacable. Space for the carrier in the Programme could not be found and its design was further modified in the light of war experience and eventually ordered in March 1942. Then in late 1942 it was decided to build her as the third unit of the Audacious class (Audacious & Eagle had been ordered in May & Aug 1942 respectively). She was finally laid down as Ark Royal iv in May 1943. (In 1945 Eagle was cancelled and in 1946 Audacious became Eagle).
So the final 1940 Programme and its Supplementary partner included:-
4 flotillas (32 ships) of Intermediate destroyers
18 Black Swan class sloops
30 Hunts
9 T class subs
20 S class subs
22 U class subs
3 minelaying subs of a new class cancelled 7/41
30 Flower class corvettes (6 cancelled 1/41)
27 River class frigates (design began around 10-11/40)
Pre WW2 there was a need seen for a trade route carrier and the 1936 tentative building plan incuded 1 per year 1936 -1940. There were also plans drawn up for conversions of fast cargo liners to fill the role (these proved too valuable in other roles in WW2). But beyond some plans set out in Friedman's "British Carrier Aviation" book they came to nothing. RN plans for mid-1939 looking forward to war in either Europe or the Far East in 1942 show Hermes, Courageous & Glorious seemingly in the role (the latter pair with only 24 aircraft).
A 1938 a policy document set out the RN carrier requirement and it was revised in Jan 1940. The numbers of carriers required in each case was 14 but there was a change in emphasis. Figures are for 1938 and 1940:-
Home waters - 4 / 2 (minimum, or 3)
Med & Far East - 4 / 4
Trade routes - 5 / 7
Gunnery co-operation training - 1 / 1 (Argus)
Total - 14 / 14 (or 15)
And in Jan 1940 the carrier fleet consisted of:-
Argus (training carrier)
Furious
Eagle
Hermes
Glorious
Ark Royal
Building - 6 armoured carriers (3 expected in 1940, 2 in 1941 & 1 in 1942)
So at that stage the fleet was considered to be 2 short. Of course it would only have been 1 short but for the loss of Courageous. This may be how the 1940 Programme was originally being looked at. IIRC the next time this exercise was carried out it was 1942 and the number of carriers had reached huge numbers, leading to the large numbers of the Colossus / Majestic classes being ordered in 1942 as well as 3 Audacious class (2 light fleet carriers being deemed the equivalent of 1 fleet carrier). But that was with 3 years of war experience off Norway & in the Med.
Unicorn's intended role has been much misunderstood. She was designed as an aircraft maintenance ship ( a depot ship for aircraft if you like) with the ability to be used as a training carrier. She had much more in the way of workshop spaces than any normal carrier would require. But it was the shortage of carriers that caused her initial use in 1943 to be as an operational carrier, for which role she was not ideal (Seafire pilots on her at Salerno have described the experience of landing on her as like dropping off a cliff due to the poor airflow around the aft end of her flight deck). By the end of the year she had been refitted to fulfil her original role and sailed to the Indian Ocean to support Illustrious and her air group in the IO. AFAIK there were never any planned follow ons for her. When more aircraft maintenance ships were seen as being needed to support IO/Pacific operations in 1943, 2 of the Colossus class hulls were converted to emerge 1945/46 as Pioneer & Perseus.
By 1941 the trade protection threat had evolved from chasing raiders to protecting convoys in the Atlantic against submarines and aircraft. The soluion to that was then seen as the escort carrier. The first, Audacity, was converted 1-6/1941 and was lost before the year was out. 6 were ordered from the USA in 1941 under Lend Lease. And from there the fleet expanded.