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A big part of why Barbarossa wasn't going well (and why the Brits had been able to hang on till '42) was Lend-Lease, and if the US hadn't entered the war, the Brits would have never been able to do anything in North Africa which means no Italian invasion, and would not have been able to successfully invade France. The Eastern Front might have ground to a standstill, which would have meant that the Germans and Russians would have come to a separate peace just like they did at Brest-Litovsk in the first war, which would have freed up Germany to go after Britain.
I think Schweiks" we'd all be typing Japanese" statement was meant as a bit of hyperbole.
A bit provocative but I think Markin actually makes some good points. I do not think the British could have taken over control of North Africa without American help - especially in three key areas - tanks, aircraft and general logistics.
Tanks in North Africa
Parsifal already outlined the basic situation with the tanks, but let me spell that out a little bit further. British tanks like the Cruiser and Crusader and even the Matilda infantry tank were carrying either anti-tank or HE weapons. You had a lot with 2 pounder QF (40mm) medium velocity AP guns, and some designated as 'CS' (close support) tanks with 3 inch (75mm) low velocity HE guns. But it was an 'either / or' thing. Later some had the 6 pounder (57mm high velocity) which was a much better AP weapon, but still not very good against non vehicle targets. Most of the British tanks were fast, but also didn't carry a lot of machine guns (usually just one .30 cal weapon) and with the exception of the Matilda had poor armor protection by the standards of the day and a tendency to catch fire when hit.
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Here is the big problem with the British tanks - the 2 pounder and the 6 pounder were both pretty good AP guns for use against tanks - the 2 pounder was roughly equivalent to the American and German 37mm guns, while the 6 pounder was very good at relatively short range. But the 2 pounder had no HE shell, neither did the 6 pounder - at least not then during the Desert campaign. Conversely, the 3 inch HE gun on the 'CS' tanks had no AP capacity. German defenses in the North African tank battles tended to be a mix of tanks and AT guns, (including the famous 88 but much more significant were smaller 37mm, 50mm and 75mm guns).
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So if a column of Cruiser Mk IV and V or Crusader tanks runs into Panzer Mk III's, they have a reasonable chance of success, but if they are faced at the same time with some well placed German 50mm AT guns, they have really no way to answer back. They can shoot with their 40mm AP gun (2 lber) but AP ammo isn't very effective against enemy gun positions. By the time a CS tank rolls up they are likely to be wiped out. They also don't have any way to silence machine gun positions, mortars, or artillery they encounter.
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By contrast the German tanks by the time of Tobruk are made up mainly of Pz III and IV, StuGG III plus some Italian and captured British tanks, but most of the German tanks are armed with 50mm medium velocity, with some 75mm low velocity and the F2 Special armed with 75mm high velocity guns. All dual purpose and effective against both soft targets (infantry, spotters, artillery or AT guns) and hard targets (tanks and other armored vehicles). Plus usually two fast firing machine guns per tank. The German 50mm gun outranged the 2 pounder and the 75mm outranged the 6 pounder. This was one of the reasons why they usually won out in more or less numerically and situationally equal tank battles against the British. The British are highly vulnerable to German AT guns, don't have enough effective radios, and also lose out in tank vs. tank encounters.
You can really see how this plays out in more realistic tabletop or even computer war games simulating tank battles in this era.
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Enter the US kit. The M3 / Stuart was roughly equivalent in most significant respects to the older British Cruiser tanks, fast and lightly armored with a small high velocity (37mm gun), but it did have AP ammo for it's small gun (and also very effective cannister shells for short range) and more machine guns and radios. It was never designed to be a medium tank but it was useful for recon and screening etc. But overall no major improvement, incremental at best, over a Cruiser Mk IV and a little less useful than a Crusader.
However the M3 Medium (with both the same 37mm high velocity gun of the Stuart and a 75mm bow gun) was very useful because of it's medium velocity 75mm. In spite of limited traverse etc., it's gun had good AP and HE rounds and could knock out both German tanks and gun positions fairly efficiently.
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When the M4 (Sherman) showed up, contrary to the tropes it was probably the best tank on the battlefield at the time. It had good and reliable radios. Heavy armor by the standards of the day - more than the German Pz IV. It's medium velocity 75mm gun (a little more powerful than the gun on the M3) had a long range, could kill any German tank of the time except the very rare Tiger, could outrange all the German guns except the 88 and the high velocity 75mm on the (also pretty rare) Pz IV F2 Special and some precious Pak 40 AT guns. could also flatten anti-tank gun positions, spotters and artillery as quickly as they were detected and even had a gyrostabilized gun which could shoot on the move. They also carried multiple machine guns including .50 cal heavy machine guns which were much more effective against light vehicles (including German light tanks and armored cars) and soft targets out to a far greater range than the LMG's.
That also goes for American made self propelled artillery, half-tracks, and even trucks - everything had a .50 caliber machine gun on it. The Germans who fought in the Afrika Korps commented on the .50 cal quite a bit and clearly feared it.
The planes
In the early days in North Africa the British were making do with Lysanders and Gladiators, facing mostly Italian Cr 32 and Cr 42 fighters with a mix of obsolete bombers on both sides. The Germans upped the ante by sending some Bf 110s and the Italians sent more capable MC 200 and Fiat G.50 fighters. The British answered with the Hurricane which had it's day and could handle the opposition at first, but when the Germans sent Bf 109s to the Theater, the Hurricane quickly showed it's limits. The main bombers at the time were Blenheims on the British side and a mix of Ju 87, SM. 79, CANT 1007 and Ju 88s on the German side.
Very quickly from Spring of 1941 it became clear that the Hurricane was no longer in the game. The Blenheim was notoriously ineffective as a bomber in this Theater and crews took even worse casualties than the Hurricane squadrons. US made P-40 Tomahawks and later Kittyhawks may not have turned the tide, but they quickly became the main air superiority type and stabilized the disaster. American made bombers, some coming via the French some directly from Lend Lease, quickly formed the backbone of the British bomber force - Martin Marylands and Baltimores were first, then A-20s, and eventually B-25s and B-26's in American hands.
By the time of El Alamein US made P-40s were definitely taking the brunt of the fighting and shooting down the majority of enemy aircraft, as well as dropping the bombs which directly led to the key breakouts, notably by 112, 250 and 260 Squadrons RAF and the US 57th Fighter Group, while US made medium and heavy bombers had the most impact on enemy airfields, supply and communication assets. Not long after El Alamein by the way the Hurricane was basically retired from the front line even for fighter-bomber missions, they taper off you don't see them in action almost at all after the 1st quarter of 1943.
TL : DR I don't think the British / Commonwealth forces could have won El Alamein without Sherman tanks, US artillery, ammunition, trucks and food and fuel, and the P-40 fighter and a variety of US made bombers. Furthermore I'm not sure the British could have turned the tide in North Africa alone. I definitely don't think they could have captured Sicily and thus secured their Malta supply line alone.
For Barbarossa, it's a bit trickier to say for sure but I know American and British tanks were important in the Soviet Army by 1942 and I know for a fact that US aircraft were important in the defense of Moscow and Leningrad, and to a lesser extent in Stalingrad as well. All of these were basically 'tipping points' in the War.
At El Alemain it was roughly 50/50 Kittyhawks and Hurricanes plus 3 of Spitfire IIRC. IMO the Tomahawk/Kittyhawk were the right planes for the job in North Africa, in their role of supporting an army in the field. The Hurricane was okay up against the Italians, but the Hawks were better for use against the Germans. The Spitfire not sufficiently developed for that role by the time of El Alemain, the Vc, the VIII far superior, but they came later. So the Hawks were essential for victory in 1942.You need to differentiate between "US made" and "lend lease" in your post. The 2 are not synonymous. The early P-40 Tomahawks that arrived in the spring of 1941 were all bought and paid for using UK gold reserves. Exactly how would Britain have failed in North Africa given that it was out-producing Germany? Exactly what was the proportion of lend-lease equipment in the British front-line in North Africa? I'd be surprised if it was more than 10% overall...and, frankly, given the production totals, that isn't a big enough proportion to have a direct impact in the outcome of the campaign.
And someone can say that this just "European" or "pro-Soviet" revisionism.
Operation Barbarossa did not succeed even before serious lend lease supplies started to arrive, indeed. But Barbarossa brought USSR to the brink of collapse. And there were other German operations later which threatened the very existence of the Soviet Union.
Regarding US war materials... If we change the topic of this thread to "which vehicle did the most to turn the tide of the war", I'd suggest Studebaker trucks (probably US6 should be singled out) and Liberty ship. I see no opportunity for the Red/Soviet Army to conduct its large offensive operations in post Kursk period without this equipment.
I just don't see the offensive happening in August 1942. It's one thing to meet the Japanese head on in a naval battle (like Midway) but when you are going to be launching a ground campaign, you need to be able to stay on station. That means staying on station with enough force to meet the enemy at the enemy's peak power. In 1942, the US Navy had not mastered the underway replenishment that was the hallmark of the fast carrier force in 1944-45. The on-duty carriers had to rotate on and off station. Under the hypothetical, starting with 5 carriers, including the Yorktown, the US at best would have been able to keep three carriers on station, and again, under the hypothetical, Japan could have thrown six fleet carriers and several light carriers against them. True, the IJN was short of tankers and oil, but the US Navy also had a shortage of tankers. Per Neptune's Inferno, that was the main reason the old reconditioned battleships were not committed to battle at Guadalcanal. Even if the Yorktown had not been touched at Midway, the ship was going to need some substantial yard time to make proper repairs to the damage suffered at the Coral Sea and to generally update the ship. That would make participation in a Solomons campaign in August pretty iffy. Without the Yorktown, the USN would have had exactly the same carrier lineup it had historically, except under this hypothetical, it would be facing up to four (but probably fewer) additional front-line Japanese carriers. Other than the Yorktown, the earliest the USN could get additional carriers to a Solomons battle would be after the Operation Torch carriers finished in the Atlantic, and these ships would have to travel halfway across the world to get there. Historically the Sangamon, Suwanee, and Chenango arrived in theater in Mid-January 1943. These carriers weren't first line, but they were at least as capable as Japan's light carriers. (They were also needed to protect convoys, which was their main job historically.) If the US had taken up the campaign against a Japan with 6 intact fleet carriers, and if the US would suffer additional loss like the torpedoing of the Saratoga and Wasp, the US Navy would be looking at fighting a second Midway-type battle at a worse numerical disadvantage.
Finally, coming full circle to the original topic, if as you assert the US Navy was looking for a fight to cause attrition against the IJN, the main tool they were counting on to cause that attrition was the good old SBD Dauntless, my #1 pick for "turn the tide".
Parsifal already outlined the basic situation with the tanks, but let me spell that out a little bit further. British tanks like the Cruiser and Crusader and even the Matilda infantry tank were carrying either anti-tank or HE weapons. You had a lot with 2 pounder QF (40mm) medium velocity AP guns, and some designated as 'CS' (close support) tanks with 3 inch (75mm) low velocity HE guns. But it was an 'either / or' thing. Later some had the 6 pounder (57mm high velocity) which was a much better AP weapon, but still not very good against non vehicle targets. Most of the British tanks were fast, but also didn't carry a lot of machine guns (usually just one .30 cal weapon) and with the exception of the Matilda had poor armor protection by the standards of the day and a tendency to catch fire when hit.
Here is the big problem with the British tanks - the 2 pounder and the 6 pounder were both pretty good AP guns for use against tanks - the 2 pounder was roughly equivalent to the American and German 37mm guns, while the 6 pounder was very good at relatively short range. But the 2 pounder had no HE shell, neither did the 6 pounder - at least not then during the Desert campaign. Conversely, the 3 inch HE gun on the 'CS' tanks had no AP capacity. German defenses in the North African tank battles tended to be a mix of tanks and AT guns, (including the famous 88 but much more significant were smaller 37mm, 50mm and 75mm guns).
and that is why they had so few battleships available to take on the Japanese fleet in those deadly battles and Japanese victories like at Savo Island. Apparently the amount of fuel used by those older BB's especially was so huge that it would have effectively used up all the fuel used by the rest of the fleet.
A few notes on tank guns if I may.
Yes the 2pdr was AP only, but the situation for the British was worse that described as far as HE went. The early 3.7in tank 'gun"(mortar) and the later 3in "howitzer were pretty much smoke throwers not HE throwers. Ammo load outs were heavily biased towards smoke shells. Smoke shells are not a whole lot of fun in a miniatures game though
I would also note that on the 3in howitzer the velocity was extremely low (600-650fps) not meters per second like this web sight claims.
http://www.wwiitanks.co.uk/tankdata/1940-Britain-Matilda-InfTankMkIIMatildaIIICS.html
Which makes long range gunnery (trying to land an HE shell in gun pit) more than a bit challenging.
Machine guns are another thing many miniatures rules get wrong. Bow machine guns were pretty much useless much over 200 meters and for the most part they had lousy sights. A lot times they had no sights, the bow gunner observed his fire using a periscope or vision slot using tracers and trying to correct. Yes the Germans did use a small scope.
The co-ax gun is aimed using the main gun sight. It was mounted pretty solid, it used the same traverse and elevation mechanisms as the main gun and should be just about as accurate, at least out to 600-800 meters. Perhaps further.
The Germans used the MG 34 as the turret gun and used either the 75 round saddle drum or the 50 round belt in a can or pouch.
The British besa gun used a 225 round belt in a box. Took a bit longer to change the box but once done you had a fair amount of time before you had to change it again.
More important than the number of machine gun barrels is the amount of MG ammo in the tank. The German MK III (at least the most common versions in NA officially carried 2700 rounds. The Crusader carried well over 4000 rounds, especially after they got rid of the bow machine gun turret. A Matilda carried 2925 rounds. Some Valentines carried 3,150 rounds.
What the crews could cram in may be a bit different.
Another thing that minature rules often get wrong is that the 2pdr gun was in different catagory than the German and American 37mm guns. The British 2pdr was actually closer to the German short 50mm gun in performance (armor punching anyway).
2pdr AP shot weighed 2.375lbs (at least all the early stuff did) while German 37mm AP weighed 1.5lbs and American 37mm AP weighed 1.92lbs. The German 37mm had MV of 2500fps while the early British 2pdr was 2600fps (a supercharge was introduced that boosted velocity to 2800fps) and the American round was 2900fps.
Now please note that ALL of these guns were better than the short 75mm gun first used in the German MK IV and that "By August 1942, Rommel had only received 27 Panzer IV Ausf. F2s, armed with the L/43 gun"
At El Alemain it was roughly 50/50 Kittyhawks and Hurricanes plus 3 of Spitfire IIRC. IMO the Tomahawk/Kittyhawk were the right planes for the job in North Africa, in their role of supporting an army in the field. The Hurricane was okay up against the Italians, but the Hawks were better for use against the Germans. The Spitfire not sufficiently developed for that role by the time of El Alemain, the Vc, the VIII far superior, but they came later. So the Hawks were essential for victory in 1942.
American armour at Alamein did make a big difference to the survivability of Allied tanks. The biggest tank killers of allied tanks was not German tanks, it was their AT screens. An 88m ATG could take out a Sherman at 3 miles so the number of MGs at those ranges was rather academic.
US 75mm HE rounds could allow the allied tankers to return fire on Axis ATGs and did not need a direct hit to destroy it. That was a huge morale and material boost, but effect air to ground asupport or artillery support could substitute if necessary. And had US armour not been available in such quantitiy, there would have been a delay, for sure, but I also think the Brits would have prioritised getting HE capability into their 6 pdrs to do the same job. This capability was only months away, so it is plausible that the bris might gave sped things up a bit if they did not have access to the Sherman
At El Alemain it was roughly 50/50 Kittyhawks and Hurricanes plus 3 of Spitfire IIRC. IMO the Tomahawk/Kittyhawk were the right planes for the job in North Africa, in their role of supporting an army in the field. The Hurricane was okay up against the Italians, but the Hawks were better for use against the Germans. The Spitfire not sufficiently developed for that role by the time of El Alemain, the Vc, the VIII far superior, but they came later. So the Hawks were essential for victory in 1942.
Don't disagree the P-40 was the right aircraft but it's a unique case in that theatre. Also your response still doesn't dig into how many of those airframes were direct purchased and how many were lend lease. I just don't know when shipments of the latter started arriving but it probably wasn't until Q3 of 1941 at the absolute earliest. I'm pretty sure all the Tomahawks were direct purchased but I don't know what the situation was for Kittyhawks.
For the Desert War, we also need to consider the tanks which were a major component of victory. Again, I'd be interested in knowing what proportion of British front-line strength was made up of M3 Medium tanks in October 1942 given that they didn't start showing up until May 1942.