Back to Ki-43
Ki-43 remained dangerous to the end of the war even to very experienced opponents, if they forgot the cardinal rule, do not combat with them at low level and at fairly low speed.
Neel E. Kearby March 5, 1944 after firing at a Ki-48 light bomber at low level he made a mistake and began a 360 degree turn for a secong firing pass. He was caught by a Ki-43 from 77th Sentai.
Thomas McGuire January 7, 1945
What happened, either he turned too sharply whilst trying to get a deflection burst into the Oscar. Or he was fired at by Sugimoto. In the 70s fellow 475th Fighter Group pilot Carroll 'Andy' Anderson interviewed the Ki-84-I Ko Frank pilot Sgt Mizunori Fukuda from 71st Sentai who was adamant that McGuire had been shot down by the other Japanese pilot on the mission, Ki-43 pilot W.O. Akira Sugimoto from the 54th Sentai. Sugimoto had flown armed with a 150 kg bomb a shipping recce southward to the Guimaras Strait to report the presence of any American ships he might encounter. Finding nothing, he had spotted Ki-84 Frank flown by Sgt Fukuda who was returning from same kind of mission and the pair flew in formation together back towards their bases. Returning, Ki-84 Frank pilot Sgt Fukuda was preparing to land at Manapla Airfield (Carolina) when Sugimoto saw a flight of four P-38 Lightnings and engaged and may have fired on P-38L "Eileen-Ann" 44-24845 pilot Major Thomas B. McGuire, Jr. that crashed. Intercepted by P-38L "Doots" 44-24876 pilot Captain Edwin R. Weaver and P-38J "Miss Gee Gee" 43-28525 pilot 2nd Lt. Douglas S. Thropp, Jr. this Oscar was hit by gunfire before escaping into clouds. Damaged, Sugimoto force landed around 7:20am and was found by Filipino guerrillas and when he did not surrender was shot.
David J. Mason, the finder of some remains of the wreck of McGuire's P-38, conducted several long interviews with Douglas S. Thropp, Jr., both face-to-face and telephone in late 2000. Lt. Thropp, at the beginning of the combat was the No. 3, originally he had been the No. 4 but because the leader of the second element, Maj. Jack Rittmayer had some problems and so the element was falling behind the first element which let McGuire to order Thropp to take the lead of the 2nd element and Thropp open his throtles to catch the 1st element. Both Weaver and Thropp saw a bogie at 12 O'clock low coming towards them. As soon as the bogie passed under McGuire he(McGuire) went into a left turn. McGuire called "Hold your tanks". Thropp started to follow McGuire to the left but as he looked back he saw the bogie pull up and head right for him. He called McGuire and reported the bogie on his tail. He continued his turn till he was heading South. He climbed toward the overcast deck. He looked back and the bogie was still coming at him. Then it began firing at him. He jinked up, left, then right. He does not believe he was hit. Maj. Rittmayer came smoking in at very high speed and fired at the bogie with an 80-90 degree deflection shot. Rittmayer then overshot to the outside. The bogie pulled up, kicked left rudder, rolled and pulled hard left, reversed his course, and dove on McGuire and Weaver. McGuire and Weaver were still maintaining a level turn in close formation. Weaver was still on McGuire's right/outside wing. They had completed a 270 degree turn to the left and were beginning to head in the original westerly direction.. Thropp followed the bogie with his own left wifferdill. He was about to warn McGuire about the bogie heading across the circle towards them but Weaver called first and said "He's on me now". The bogie came downhill fast, accelerating, cutting across the circle, pulling lead on McGuire and Weaver. Thropp then saw the bogie pull up to avoid colliding with McGuire and Weaver. He could not tell if the bogie had fired at McGuire or Weaver but it was pulling enough lead and it was well within range. Thropp closed in on the bogie and when he was in range opened fire with the bogie in his gunsight. After three seconds of fire the bogie disappeared in the clouds heading North towards the ocean. He was disappointed that he missed. Thropp turned left to the West and looked over to his left and saw a burning airplane on the ground. He thought it was Weaver. He thought Weaver was shot down by the bogies gunfire. Who else could it be he thought. Thropp had no idea where McGuire or Rittmayer were. When he looked back to the front the bogie reappeared coming right over his head at a distance of 30 meters. Guns blazing. He had no idea who it was firing on. He did not think the bogie was firing on him. He turned hard left and realized he still had his drop tanks on. His plane was feeling very heavy. He then jettisoned his tanks and turned left doing a 180 to go after the bogie. But he did not see the bogie right away. He flew around for a few seconds and saw a second plane burning on the ground. Then he looked around for any other P-38's to join up with. After a few more seconds and a slow turn to the left he looked to his rear and saw the bogie closing on him again. He thought Son of a Bitch. He firewalled the throttles but noticed his left engine was not putting out full power. He saw 45 inches of manifold pressure on the left and 55 inches on the right. He headed for the cloud deck while keeping an eye on the bogie. The bogie closed to within firing range. Then it fired. Thropp saw the guns light up and he jinked left, the tracer bullets went wide right. The bogie made a correction and fired. Thropp saw the guns light up and he jinked right, the bullets went wide left. The bogie made a correction and fired again. Thropp saw the guns light up and pushed forward, the bullets went over the top of the canopy. The bogie made a correction and fired. Thropp thought I don't think this is going to work for much longer so he pulled up into the clouds and transitioned to instruments. He called for McGuire. Thinking what the hell is McGuire doing all this time. But Weaver answered him. It was then that he realized that McGuire and Rittmayer had crashed. He thought "well this has been a damn fine morning!" Thropp told Weaver that he wanted to join up with him but Weaver said he did not want to waste time looking for each other in the clouds and to RTB alone. Thropp returned to Dulag alone, landed, and taxied in. A crew chief came up and asked "where are the others". Thropp said "McGuire and Rittmayer are down and burning". The news spread like wildfire. The whole base knew before Weaver landed 10 minutes later. Thropp looked over his plane and was surprised to see it had been hit. He could not remember being hit during the dogfight. There was a hole in the left engine turbo-charger and the right tail boom. He could not tell if they were 20mm or 12mm holes. So either Sugimoto or Fukuda hit his P-38. IMHO more probably by the former because when he first saw Fukuda's Frank it was probably firing at Rittmayer's P-38 which Fukuda shot down right at the beginning of his attack. And before Fukuda began shot at him he had firewalled his throttles and noticed that his left engine was not putting out full power.
While preparing to land at Carolina Airfield (Manapla) when Fukuda saw Ki-43 Oscar pilot WO Sugimoto engage a flight of four P-38 Lightnings and P-38L "Eileen-Ann" 44-24845 pilot Major Thomas B. McGuire, Jr. crash then Ki-43 Oscar pilot WO Sugimoto intercepted by P-38s piloted by Weaver and Thropp.
Fukuda broke off his landing and entered the dog fight and made a head on pass against P-38J Lightning 43-28836 pilot Major Jack B. Rittmayer and shot him down. Afterwards, he was fired on by P-38L "Doots" 44-24876 pilot Captain Edwin R. Weaver and damaged. He fired on P-38 pilot 2nd Lt. Douglas S. Thropp, Jr. but was again hit by Weaver and his engine began loosing power. Disengaging, Fukuda few into the clouds then returned to land at Carolina Airfield (Manapla) and while landing the left landing gear leg collapsed and his plane flipped over and he suffered back injuries in the landing. After three months recovering from his injuries, he resumed flying combat missions in defense of the Tokyo area until the end of the Pacific War.
The McGuire part was mainly based on
https://web.archive.org/web/20120127010823/http://www.aerothentic.com/historical/articles/McGuire.htm Conducted by David J. Mason plus relevant Pacific wrecks articles.
So it might have been that McGuire saw that the Sugimoto's Ki-43 was getting to a good firing position behind him / saw that it opens fire at him / even that his plane began taking hits that forced him to tighten his turn too much.