So one thing I would point out right out the gate from looking at this analysis, is it helps clarify one of the major points we've been discussing in this thread and in some of it's precursors and off-shoots -
the importance of range in naval air combat. I'll just mention a couple of specifics:
If the Axis had good long range fighters
...Then they could have launched attacks against Pedestal two or three days before they did. You can argue that "range doesn't matter because the Allies have to come to the where the Axis bases are." But this ignores the reality - if you can only escort the bombers once the convoy is 50 or 60 miles away, you are giving yourself much fewer opportunities to sink the ships. The same obviously applies in carrier combat. If the Germans had a fighter like the A6M they could have been sending waves of Ju-88s and SM.79s escorted by first-rate fighters. Instead of either sending them by themselves or holding them back.
On 11 August, 27 Ju 88s and 3 He 111s attacked Pedestal just before sunset, having flown 200 nmi from their base on Sardinia. They made a rushed and hasty attack, to evade the CAP, since they were unescorted - beyond the range of their Bf 109 fighters - and they missed in all their attacks. What would have happened if that had been 27 D3As or G4Ms? How about if they had been escorted by first line fighters?
Because the Allies did have long range strike aircraft
The night after this attack on 11 August, Liberators and Beaufighters attacked the Axis bases in Sardinia, destroying multiple Axis aircraft and setting hangars on fire.
Longer ranged Axis fighters could have protected Axis warships
Then their surface ships may have also been able to attack. On the night of 11/12 August the Italians sent two cruiser divisions and 17 destroyers from Sicily and Italy to attack the British convoy. A British Wellington recon plane spotted them and sent fake messages to a fictitious Liberator unit, the Italians canceled the sortie because there was no guarantee of air cover.
If the Axis had better long range strike aircraft
The Ju 88 and SM.79 were pretty good. The Ju 87s were better. But the Ju 88 and SM.79 didn't have as good a 'kill rate' as the D3A and B5N did, probably not as much as the G3M or G4M either. We have seen some data in another thread which shows the extremely high rate of accuracy of the D3A in particular, not just against the US but also against the British, such as when
53 D3A dive bombers hit HMS Cornwall and HMS Dorsetshire 28 times in five minutes, plus 15 near misses. We know that the Ju 87 could also bomb very accurately, as we can see
in the attack on Illustrious on 7 January 1941 during Operation Excess, in which it was hit six times by 30 stukas. But Ju 87s lacked long range, and in spite of having armor and self sealing tanks, couldn't survive an encounter with Allied fighters unescorted. But a D3A could strike twice as far as a stuka. Even if most of them were shot down, they still carried a bite. In one raid against Pedestal, all but 4 Ju 88s were shot down or driven off, and those four attacked, but got no hits. During Midway, a Japanese strike was decimated by USN CAP, but three D3As got through. All three scored hits. Four B5Ns got through as well, scoring two torpedo hits. This is lethal!
If the Allies had more effective fighters with better range
Like if they had all Martlets instead of the mix of Sea hurricanes, Fulmars and the few Martlets they actually had, then they could have intercepted the enemy strike aircraft at a further distance from the fleet. All of this also depends on recon, fighter coordination, radar and other factors. But it's also just a matter of how far your fighters go out on their patrol. When a strike is intercepted at 60 miles from your ships, you have a much better chance of breaking up the attack than if you intercept it 20 miles away. I think the British had a problem here, mainly due to the short legs of the Sea Hurricane in particular, but they partly made up for it by very good fighter direction. The Americans conversely had a longer ranged fighter in the Wildcat, but their fighter control was more haphazard. When they intercepted raids further out, the outcomes were better.
This also applies to the British land-based fighters. If the Spitfires had longer legs, they could have helped the convoy when it was further out, in greater numbers, and for longer. Which brings me to...
If the Allies had more fighters with a longer loiter time
Another factor which seemed to be telling during Pedestal was that the CAP was small, and enemy strikes were at least in part intercepted by aircraft launched at the moment they were detected. This is even possible in part because of the efficient fighter control system. But it was also probably done in prt due to the kind of problems posed by the Sea Hurricane described by RN officers and FAA pilots, i.e. that Sea Hurricanes couldn't stay up long, and the carrier was constantly having to turn into the wind to launch or recover them...
"16. The short operational endurance of the Hurricane and small amount of ammunition carried must result in frequent turns into wind to land on aircraft which have been in combat, greatly aggravating the position in regard to flying off others or maintaining sections standing by to fly off."
-Report from Commanding Officer, HMS Ark Royal to Flag Officer Commanding Force 'H' ADM 199/ 847 31 July 1941
Obviously this is a problem when you are in a convoy that's trying to get to their goal as fast as possible. So for this reason they would keep some on deck, to launch when the enemy planes were spotted.