Wuzak, the focus of the alternative universe is the ability of the Mosquito (any version) could duplicate B-17 Strike radius with ear duplicate range - and useful payload combination.
Not all Mosquito versions could deliver the required bombs.
Night-fighters couldn't, PR versions couldn't, though they were closely related to the bomber versions. And fighter-bombers (the FB.VI) couldn't, owing to the cannons protruding into the front half of the bomb bay.
No Mosquito could match the very long range missions that B-17s (or Lancasters) could do. The maximum radius is roughly to Berlin, perhaps a little past.
In my mind, one precision delivered 2000# GP might be worth several B-17s (or more depending on comparisons of bombing via Mickey through 10/10 cloud cover).
The British did not have a suitable 2,000lb bomb. The best they had was the older 1,900lb GP bomb, which had about as much explosives as the 1,000lb MC bomb.
The US 2,000lb GP bomb would need to have its tail modified to the British style.
In development the Mosquito was trialed with 1 x 1,000lb GP (older type with low charge-to-weight ratio) and 2 x 500lb MC. But this arrangement was never used, It required slight modifications to the bomb bay doors. The 1,000lb MC was bigger diameter, so would have needed modified doors, though not quite as large as the eventual bulged doors.
When the Mosquito did start using the 1,000lb MC bomb it used the carrier for the 4,000lb bomb, and only one could be carried. More often used was the 1,000lb Target Indicator, which was the same size and shape as the 1,000lb MC. 627 Squadron, IIRC, did make an adapter to take two 1,000lb MC bombs. These all required the bulged bomb bay.
From early 1944 Mosquitoes modified with the bulged bomb bay door and carrier could carry the 4,000lb bombs. The IV could, but it was marginal. The IX and XVI were much better at it.
There were at least two 4,000lb bombs the Mosquito could accommodate - the 4,000lb High Capacity (HC) "cookie" and the 4,000lb Medium Capacity (MC) bomb. There may have also been a 4,000lb Incendiary bomb, but I can't confirm that. I assume that if a 2,000lb bomb works, then a 4,000lb would be better.
The British MC bombs were similar to the American GP bombs in size and charge-to-weight ratio.
In terms of penetrating at low level, I think that the B.XVI would be better flying at high altitude to close to the target, then dive to low level for the attack and then climb again for the return journey. That should give better range and plays to the B.XVI's strength.
If a squadron of Mossies could penetrate at low altitude to Ploesti or Brux specific targets (like Cat cracker, platformer, etc) with 2000 pound bombs, with acceptable losses - I am more interested in the discussion.
Ploesti was out of reach for Mosquitoes until Italy fell. Basically when P-38s could reach Ploesti so could Mosquitoes.
Brux may have been possible for Mosquito B.XVIs flying at mid-to-high altitude carrying a 4,000lb bomb with 2 x 50UKG drop tanks. Could be at the outer edge of their radius, and probably would have to sacrifice some speed on the outward and return journeys to get the extra range.
I did a calculation many of years ago that suggested a B.IV, if it could be fitted with drop tanks*, would be very close to being able to fly to Schweinfurt at 0ft the whole trip.
*B.IVs didn't have drop tank facilities, but could have if production continued.
That said, the next question is 'Why weren't the RAF substituting fewer Mossies for many more Lancasters on a routine basis for much shorter range targets like Misburg?
I am guessing priorities.
When production orders were being put in for the Mosquito the emphasis was on attacks on cities, for which the Mosquito was ill suited. So bomber Mosquitoes were lower priority than the other variants.
And their main job, to start with, was as pathfinders for the heavies, using Oboe and Gee-H.
In 1944 the Light Night Striking Force was formed. They did Mosquito-only raids, often as diversions for Lancaster raids, drawing the German night-fighter defences away from the main attack areas.
Without doing the math, To me the 'job' was 100' CEP for 50% of the planned specific target(s) for 2x1000 pound bombs - with clear visibility at any altitude chosen to compare against large force B-17/B-24 attacks. Presumed that only low altitude bombing fits the spectrum of accuracy attainment for Mosquito. RAF demonstrated such capability. In 10/10 cloud cover the advantage of small force of Mosquitos over large forces of B-17s seem to favor the Mosquito unless the target is well defined contrast (harbor, lake, etc)
I think that in bad weather the Oboe and, more particularly, Gee-H systems were more accurate than H2S/H2X. However, the range was restricted, though further than Lancasters could use the system.
Visual bombing from 30,000ft was probably less accurate for the Mosquito than the B-17 because of the higher speed and lesser stability. Also, the bomb sight - most Mosquitoes used the Mk XIV. The Norden sight was not well suited to the Mosquito.
I just can't see any scenario of medium to high altitude, long range, daylight attacks in which the Mossie is a better choice. Begs the questions ' what were Mosquito bomb aiming advantages over AAF doctrine at long range, what were acceptable loss rates for basically unarmed Mosquitos in daylight operations deep into Germany or Rumania, and what were crew/aircraft replacement considerations?
Acceptable loss rates I guess would be dependent on results. With good tactics for daylight bombing I would think the loss rate would be sustainable - production rate and crew training would compensate for losses.
Crew replacements would, in one way, be easier than for B-17s, as there are two crew instead of 10. The other side of that is the crew required are the highest trained - the pilot and navigator/bomb aimer/radio operator (though in low level attacks it was typically the pilot that did the bombing).
With US and Commonwealth training schemes there should be enough of both. Didn't the USAAF have two sets of crew, or nearly so, for every bomber in England by the end of the war?