What if Hitler had followed the Luftwaffe strategic war plan?

[tomo pauk]

Accordingly to Google (I know it's Google) Germany had a higher percentage of woman in the general workplace in 1939 but Britain had a bigger percentage working in Armament workplace in 1944.

Germany started using slave workers, foreign workers that were free in theory but not in reality, as well as the PoWs.
Women were required to work on teh fields, now that the men are in the armed forces, and there is no import of foodstufs from Americas as in the case of the UK. German fuel industry required far more workers than the fuel industry of the UK, again there was no comparable amount of imported POL from the Americas.

In the early war years Germany were conquering neighbouring Countries and using their resources and forced labour so of course Germany could maintain production of non essential products.

That was kinda my point.

As for production from 1935 - 1940 of War Production that's not a fair comparison because Germany since 1933 under the Nazis were expanding production, introducing conscription and marching into the Rhineland(Demilitized Zone)whilst Britain wasn't.

I would'not complain too much about the things not looking fair.

Germany was painted many times as too much invested into the production of war material in the 1930s, and were doing shoddy deals with the smaller European countries - basically importing their stuff and paying them with paper that was worth only in Germany. That is after they spent a lot of hard foreign currency and even gold to start-up the rearmament. Some authors from the West went so far to claim that Germany was in a dire need to start the war and start conquering, lest the other countries and banks will start requiring them to pay the debts in actual assets (not paper), that is something that they didn't have.
Expecting them to go even more beyond these already shaky economics, so they can make another dozen or two of He 111s or another couple of cruisers is very much removed from reality.

 

[andy1967]

Germany started using slave workers, foreign workers that were free in theory but not in reality, as well as the PoWs.
Women were required to work on teh fields, now that the men are in the armed forces, and there is no import of foodstufs from Americas as in the case of the UK. German fuel industry required far more workers than the fuel industry of the UK, again there was no comparable amount of imported POL from the Americas.



That was kinda my point.



I would'not complain too much about the things not looking fair.

Germany was painted many times as too much invested into the production of war material in the 1930s, and were doing shoddy deals with the smaller European countries - basically importing their stuff and paying them with paper that was worth only in Germany. That is after they spent a lot of hard foreign currency and even gold to start-up the rearmament. Some authors from the West went so far to claim that Germany was in a dire need to start the war and start conquering, lest the other countries and banks will start requiring them to pay the debts in actual assets (not paper), that is something that they didn't have.
Expecting them to go even more beyond these already shaky economics, so they can make another dozen or two of He 111s or another couple of cruisers is very much removed from reality.

You make some good points, my main point was that War with Russia was not avoidable and I still stand by the fact that Germany didn't hit full war production until 1943/44

 

[tomo pauk]

my main point was that War with Russia was not avoidable

With Hitler at the helm in one side, and Stalin o another side - yes, it would've came to the blows eventually. We don't know when, though.

and I still stand by the fact that Germany didn't hit full war production until 1943/44

IMO, they didn't hit it at all.
Factories don't work well without raw materials, fuel, rubber, as well as without the willing and capable work force. The pinch was felt already in the winter of 1940/41.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The pinch was felt even before then, I think. The pinch was in labor. When labor is in short supply, inflation tends to build, because goods come into short supply while the labor to make them must be paid higher in order to attract workers. Added to that, investment into military is generally not remunerative unless said military is used to attain more resources and labor.

At a certain point, you end up chasing your tail unless you're taking resources from other nations. And even then, the labor needed to extract or process those resources is either already in your military and not available, or composed of foreign workers not happy to help you in your efforts. And still needing pay, food, quarters, etc.

 

[GrauGeist]

Germany from the late 30's through the early 40's was not at a full time war footing because Hitler was maintaining a "Fatherland Utopia" facade.

This is the fundamental failure that led to wartime shortages early on.

You cannot start a world war with a 9 to 5, Monday through Friday mindset in order to preserve the illusion that you are the master race.

*if* you intend to conquer the world, you need to ramp up your war machine to full production *before* you start the war.

Not after you're losing.

 

[tomo pauk]

It boils down to two schools of thought.
One says: German economy (not just war economy) and monetary system were reaching the breaking point because of the German rearmament in the second half of 1930s. Hence the Mefo bills to trick the smaller countries in giving Germany something real in exchange for something vague, fiat, and hence the German conquest so these bills don't need to be honored, or that the holders of the bills will be too scared to start asking questions.
Another says: Germany was in the position to ramp up production even more in the 1930s; that school of thought probably assumes that German economy, monetary system and access to all crucial raw materials were in such a shape that such an idea was possible.

So who is right here?

 

[andy1967]

With Hitler at the helm in one side, and Stalin o another side - yes, it would've came to the blows eventually. We don't know when, though.



IMO, they didn't hit it at all.
Factories don't work well without raw materials, fuel, rubber, as well as without the willing and capable work force. The pinch was felt already in the winter of 1940/41.

Accordingly to the book The rise and fall of the Third Reich by William L. Shirer on the 29th July 1940 Jodl announced at a meeting of Operations Staff that "Hitler intended to attack the USSR, in the spring of 1941"As early as October 18th 1939 Hitler instructed the Army that the conquered Polish territory was to be regarded " as an assembly area for future German operations"

 

[andy1967]

The pinch was felt even before then, I think. The pinch was in labor. When labor is in short supply, inflation tends to build, because goods come into short supply while the labor to make them must be paid higher in order to attract workers. Added to that, investment into military is generally not remunerative unless said military is used to attain more resources and labor.

At a certain point, you end up chasing your tail unless you're taking resources from other nations. And even then, the labor needed to extract or process those resources is either already in your military and not available, or composed of foreign workers not happy to help you in your efforts. And still needing pay, food, quarters, etc.

I disagree about Labour being the pinch because of the Royal Navy blockade Germany were dependent on Russia for raw materials on February 11 1940 a trade deal was signed in Moscow worth a minimum 640 million Reichmarks over the next 18 months this was in addition to the previous trade deal signed August 1939.

 

[tomo pauk]

Accordingly to the book The rise and fall of the Third Reich by William L. Shirer on the 29th July 1940 Jodl announced at a meeting of Operations Staff that "Hitler intended to attack the USSR, in the spring of 1941"As early as October 18th 1939 Hitler instructed the Army that the conquered Polish territory was to be regarded " as an assembly area for future German operations"

Nobody is disputing that.
Hitler was eyeing the area between Vistula and Urals as the future German Lebensraum, and there is no other way to acquire that without defeating Russia (and conquering Poland, obviously).

 

[andy1967]

Nobody is disputing that.
Hitler was eyeing the area between Vistula and Urals as the future German Lebensraum, and there is no other way to acquire that without defeating Russia (and conquering Poland, obviously).

I was replying to your previous statement "we don't know when, though "

 

[tomo pauk]

I was replying to your previous statement "we don't know when, though "

Okay.

 

[andy1967]

Read some stuff by Adam Tooze. The books arerather long. There are some good YouTube videos. Women had been a part of the German economy for quite some time.

Yes Germany had more woman in the general workplace than Britain in 1939, but Germany were slower to introduce German women into armament production. Albert Speer asked Hitler to do this in 1942 but was turned down, Hitler wanted German woman to increase the birth rate of the Master race.It wasn't until Feb 1943 that Joseph Goebbels made a speech calling for total war that German woman began Armament production. The 1970s World at War episode 16 documentary series is my source for this information. talking to Albert Speer himself.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I disagree about Labour being the pinch because of the Royal Navy blockade Germany were dependent on Russia for raw materials on February 11 1940 a trade deal was signed in Moscow worth a minimum 640 million Reichmarks over the next 18 months this was in addition to the previous trade deal signed August 1939.

I'll get you a reference from Shirer when I get out of the bath.

Also one should be very careful using Speer as a source regarding his own activities.

 

[andy1967]

I'll get you a refence from Shirer when I get out of the bath.

Also one should be very careful using Speer as a source regarding his own activities.

I was using Shirer aswell. Having just watched episode 16 World at War a 1970s documentary i will admit Labour was also a factor but i still believe raw materials were a pinch point also.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I was using Shirer aswell. Having just watched episode 16 World at War a 1970s documentary i will admit Labour was also a factor but i still believe raw materials were a pinch point also.

Of course materials were part of Hitler's decision as to when. We disagree on how much to weigh that factor, which is fine.

 

[GTX]

Both of the following books highlight the fact that the German economy under the Nazis was constrained by resources - there was no simple way for Germany to ramp up production across the board and the Wehrmacht had to make tradeoffs (this is very clear in the Plan Z book whereby David Wragg explains quite succinctly why pushing the Plan Z plans would have meant the Heer and Luftwaffe were severely cutback. By default, to alternatively push the Luftwaffe plans early on would have meant cutting back somewhere else. The resource demands also increasingly drove Hitler's thinking - e.g. the whole push to the oil in the South of the USSR in 1942. To reiterate what has already been written, I simply don't see the scenario of getting a victory in the West (even if possible) and then pausing to rebuild before attacking East was realistic. It simply relies on too many what ifs happening despite the 'dreams' of some.

 

[tomo pauk]

Both of the following books highlight the fact that the German economy under the Nazis was constrained by resources - there was no simple way for Germany to ramp up production across the board and the Wehrmacht had to make tradeoffs (this is very clear in the Plan Z book whereby David Wragg explains quite succinctly why pushing the Plan Z plans would have meant the Heer and Luftwaffe were severely cutback.

Bingo.

By default, to alternatively push the Luftwaffe plans early on would have meant cutting back somewhere else. The resource demands also increasingly drove Hitler's thinking - e.g. the whole push to the oil in the South of the USSR in 1942. To reiterate what has already been written, I simply don't see the scenario of getting a victory in the West (even if possible) and then pausing to rebuild before attacking East was realistic. It simply relies on too many what ifs happening despite the 'dreams' of some.

This scenario does not suggest that the push with LW plans is made early on, but that there is a pause in the warfare by some 5-6 years.
Hitler have had every option not to attack Soviet Union, since without the war there he (Wehrmacht) would not need so much of oil in the 1st place. But getting on Hitler not being drunk on the recent victories is a loosing bet. IOW, the attack on Soviet Union was much more a thing of 'we are the best, Russia is next' attitude, rather than something based on realistic principles.

 

[GTX]

there is a pause in the warfare by some 5-6 years.

As has been said many times in this thread, that is an unrealistic expectation.

Hitler have had every option not to attack Soviet Union, since without the war there he (Wehrmacht) would not need so much of oil in the 1st place.

Both his ideology and rhetoric and the need for resources especially in light of the embargoes on Germany pretty much dictated that it would have happened as it did. Germany under Hitler got themselves into an situation that if they weren't growing through conquest they would risk failing and collapsing.

 

[tomo pauk]

As has been said many times in this thread, that is an unrealistic expectation.

There was many things that happened back in ww2 that were hard to believe.

Both his ideology and rhetoric and the need for resources especially in light of the embargoes on Germany pretty much dictated that it would have happened as it did.

Ideology and rhetoric - yes.
Need for resources was far lower with tanks, aircraft, halftracks and military trucks staying put.

Germany under Hitler got themselves into an situation that if they weren't growing through conquest they would risk failing and collapsing.

I'd disagree on that. Especially between, say, July of 1940 and June of 1941.

 

[GTX]

There was many things that happened back in ww2 that were hard to believe.

That's essentially resorting to "but it might have..." style reasoning.

Ideology and rhetoric - yes.
Need for resources was far lower with tanks, aircraft, halftracks and military trucks staying put.

There is no realistic way that that production of anything other than Luftwaffe needs could have ceased.

I'd disagree on that. Especially between, say, July of 1940 and June of 1941.

But the premise here is not between Jul 40 - Jun 41