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I agree that I am largely speculating with my figures for the .50
Not sure how you can conclude that when I specifically talked about books from pilots from WWII and compared the results as being similar.Yet, you admit that you've nothing to go on but youtube videos of gun camera footage highlights, which neither know the speed of or which aircraft were doing the firing.
90% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 29 rounds
.5 inch AP - 50 rounds
.303 inch - 105 rounds
.
Now you get it!The effectiveness of the .303 is interesting; if we assume 14rps for the .5in and 20rps for the .303, it would seem that 8 x .303 is roughly equal to 6 x .5in, yet the 8 x .303 battery is much lighter, ditto for 4 x 20mm cannon at 10rps.
Not sure how you can conclude that when I specifically talked about books from pilots from WWII and compared the results as being similar.
I tried several national archives but several have been turned off after 911 you have to have a clearance now. If you know of one that is still open I will research it.
Greyman now that is interesting data, I assume lethality as likelihood of bomber going down.
But it shows the ratio for number of 50.cal to 20mm rounds reducing for a greater liklehood of shootdown.
25% 2.8
50% 2.2
75% 1.9
90% 1.7
Assuming the ROF for the .50 and 20mm were close then
2x20mm 4x20mm setup vs 6 and 8 gun .50cal setup @50% lethality
2x20mm 0.7 and 0.6 of 6 and 8 gun
4x20mm 1.5 and 1.1 of 6 and 8 gun
So a 2 x20mm is worse than a 6 or 8 gun .50 but 4x20mm is better.
But to give an idea of other factors influence, when the Germans went to the gyro sight they claimed a 30% increase in hit probability.
30% is around the delta between the 2x20mm and 6 gun .50 and more than the delta between the 4x20mm and 8 gun .50 cal setup.
Also the longer the shooting the less the difference to bring the Heinkel down. Granted we don't know the wind/loading affects and the 20mm has an advantage there but unless its is major impact then its just another complicating factor.
You are exceedingly close to the actual figure at which the British arrived (for a Heinkel 111). When I get a few minutes tonight I'll try and relay the figures.
EDIT:
Alright, basically it broke down to this:
25% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 4 rounds
.5 inch AP - 11 rounds
.303 inch - 24 rounds
50% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 9 rounds
.5 inch AP - 20 rounds
.303 inch - 42 rounds
75% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 17 rounds
.5 inch AP - 33 rounds
.303 inch - 67 rounds
90% chance of Lethality
20 mm HE/I - 29 rounds
.5 inch AP - 50 rounds
.303 inch - 105 rounds
The tests were based on ground-firing trials against a Heinkel III, 200 yards direct astern and assumed a uniform distribution of strikes over the airframe.
The British analysts remarked that the figures were probably slightly pessimistic due to the impossibility to simulate airframe disintegration (lack of air stresses) and it was not possible to assess on a statistical basis the myriad of ways a fire could start due to engine behavior under fire.
During the test they didn't have proper stats on the likelihood an HE/I round would set a petrol tank on fire. Based on four strikes, the tank lit up once, so they went with 25%.
Afterwards they were able to do more extensive tests and found this was 40% (this time based on 60 strikes). This was indicated in an addendum to the firing trial.
Also, fuel leaks were not factored in. The thinking was that German bombers operate from such short distances to their targets, the chance of petrol tanks being holed and emptied was removed. I would think this would hurt the Hispano numbers more than the two Brownings.
Your 'two percent' hit accuracy figure sounds reasonable to me as well, as the figure I think I've generally run into is about one percent accuracy. If you were isolating the statistic against large bombers that weren't maneouvreing, a doubling of hits would seem to fit.
I'd suggest the .303s might be getting a break because the test was conducted at comparatively short range (200 yards.) The destructive power of the 303 rounds could be expected to drop off more rapidly than that of the .50 or 20mm. As aircraft speed increased throughput the war so did typical ranges, which would have further worked against the 303. This might account for the apparent effectiveness of the 303 in this test compared to the combat experience of pilots, who generally considered it inadequate as sole armament.
I concur and that is one of the problems with test results combat results.I'd suggest the .303s might be getting a break because the test was conducted at comparatively short range (200 yards.) The destructive power of the 303 rounds could be expected to drop off more rapidly than that of the .50 or 20mm. As aircraft speed increased throughput the war so did typical ranges, which would have further worked against the 303. This might account for the apparent effectiveness of the 303 in this test compared to the combat experience of pilots, who generally considered it inadequate as sole armament.
A P-47 with 8x.50 or 6x.50 Mustang was more efficient than a BF-109 with 1x20mm and 2 MG.
But you miss something. When the 109 with 1 x20 and 2 x Hmg was fighting the P51 normally had 4 x HMG so the firepower was in the 109 favour. Later the 109 were normally armed with 1 x 30mm and 2 x HMG, again the advantage was with the 109A P-47 with 8x.50 or 6x.50 Mustang was more efficient than a BF-109 with 1x20mm and 2 MG.
A P-47 with 8x.50 or 6x.50 Mustang was more efficient than a BF-109 with 1x20mm and 2 MG.
The P51 always had 6 not 4 MG. The Apache had 4x20mm.But you miss something. When the 109 with 1 x20 and 2 x Hmg was fighting the P51 normally had 4 x HMG so the firepower was in the 109 favour. Later the 109 were normally armed with 1 x 30mm and 2 x HMG, again the advantage was with the 109