parsifal
Colonel
capture of oahu was a high stakes gamble, with low returns likely. The prize to go for was the US Pacific Fleet. Entice or force it into battle before it is ready, and you win perhaps 2 years of respite from US attentions. Time enough to prepare a welcoming committee for the advancing Americans as they come storming back across the Pacific. A one sided easy victory in 1941 or early 1942 will deliver all that an invasion might without near the risk.
It might be possible, if the IJN is not put on the rack by late 42 as it was historically, to have an IJN 50% stronger than it was historically, and the USN 40% weaker than it was historically in June 1944. Imagine a Phil Sea with all 6 of the big carriers, plus 2 x Taihos, a couple of Unryus, an extra Yamato class, the 2 BCs, versus the US fleet less the prewar navy. If the aircrews are more closely matched quality wise, Phil Sea becomes almost unwinnable for the USN, at least in the 1941-5 time frame.
It might be possible, if the IJN is not put on the rack by late 42 as it was historically, to have an IJN 50% stronger than it was historically, and the USN 40% weaker than it was historically in June 1944. Imagine a Phil Sea with all 6 of the big carriers, plus 2 x Taihos, a couple of Unryus, an extra Yamato class, the 2 BCs, versus the US fleet less the prewar navy. If the aircrews are more closely matched quality wise, Phil Sea becomes almost unwinnable for the USN, at least in the 1941-5 time frame.
