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I think one of our Forum members mentioned something about unintended consequences.According to Tuchman in The Guns of August, the German General Staff were horrified when the Kaiser mentioned pulling back the mobilization. They could see the "order, counterorder, disorder" pileup and figured the Russians would not stop anyway, and meanwhile their railway timetables would be in a shambles, to put it mildly.
Amongst the other bits of fallout, the Middle East would be very different, and without Versailles feeding into German resentment, would Hitler have risen to power? Would the Holocaust have happened? Would Israel be established, with all that implies for the OTL history?
If the Archduke would have stayed home.
Well, the Archduke's chauffeur, after the several assassination attempts earlier in the route, was told to leave the planned route. He got lost, and drove down a dead-end alley -- which just happened to be where Princip was walking home, upset because he hadn't had a chance to do the deed. Now here it was, and he made the most of it, and the rest is history.
So it can fairly be said that WWI started because of a male driver's refusal to stop and ask for directions.
We're all going to hell.
So it can fairly be said that WWI started because of a male driver's refusal to stop and ask for directions.
Would Israel be established, with all that implies for the OTL history?
This would have happened regardless, the Balfour Declaration was the first steps toward it, as well as the Sykes Picot Treaty in creating Palestine and British interest in the region.
One thing's for sure, the Middle East is gonna descend into turmoil, regardless of what goes on in mainland Europe.
Yabut, without the Holocaust, how fierce is Israel, and how much American sympathy and support does it have?
Hmmm, I suspect you might have forgotten something...
Israel was doing just fine without US support, but after the Six Day War, the US saw a business opportunity. America had precisely zero skin in the game for years.
My point was more aimed at the irrational division of the Ottoman Empire post-WWI, which has resulted in ethnic or sectarian issues in many of those synthetic countries, especially Iraq.
But we Americans are indeed dealing with the fallout of that dissolution. Others are as well, of course.
As for the reasons behind America's support for Israel, it also relies heavily upon both political and religious components, and as such -- in accordance with forum rules -- I won't discuss those here.
Sensible, Thump, but the division of the Ottoman Empire by France and Britain paved the way toward establishing an Israeli homeland and you might be underestimating the desire for a Jewish place in the world. The holocaust was certainly not the first time Jews were persecuted.
Again, we're really talking about butterflies, when we discuss "what-ifs" of this magnitude.