There will be another war, a big one, only because we think it won't happen. Personally, I think it will start in the Far East. Still a lot of old feelings out there that are raw and they didn't get the same pasting that Europe got in the last century.
About Raw Materials, I think you are right. But they are always about treasure, at least on some level. Keep an eye on China and the expansion it makes towards Islands claimed by other countries, especially Japan. Other than that, the Chinese could get antsy if somebody they didn't trust (which is just about everyone) becomes a percieved threat along China's lines of communication (read India) to current raw materials (read Persian Gulf and Africa).