"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (12 Viewers)

SaparotRob · Jul 17, 2023

Thumpalumpacus said:
I bet the Ukrainians are about go hell-for-leather for Crimea now.

I'm thinking they'll want to isolate Crimea first. That weakens Russia's hand and quiets down the "just give the Russians Crimea and call it quits" gang. I hope that Putin doesn't defenestrate his fool self until this happens. If Putin is replaced by some seemingly rational thug who'll end it all but they keep Crimea, a bunch of useful idiots will happily cave. I'd like to see Ukraine drop the bridge and isolate Bakhmut. That's gotta' crush what's left of Russian morale. If the AFU can get to Tokmak, that would would bring the bridge into GMLARS range (I think). It would effectively sever the land bridge to Crimea overland. If Russia can't control Crimea, well, that weakens Russia's claims.

Greg Boeser · Jul 17, 2023

On a lighter note...

Ukrainian helicopter crew say women flash them as they fly overhead, boosting their morale as they fight Russia

A Ukrainian pilot told The Sunday Times they had saved the GPS locations of places where patriotic Ukrainian women had flashed them.

www.businessinsider.com

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 17, 2023

SaparotRob said:
I'm thinking they'll want to isolate Crimea first.

That's my point: this is the first step in isolating the island.

SaparotRob said:
That weakens Russia's hand and quiets down the "just give the Russians Crimea and call it quits" gang. I hope that Putin doesn't defenestrate his fool self until this happens. If Putin is replaced by some seemingly rational thug who'll end it all but they keep Crimea, a bunch of useful idiots will happily cave. I'd like to see Ukraine drop the bridge and isolate Bakhmut. That's gotta' crush what's left of Russian morale. If the AFU can get to Tokmak, that would would bring the bridge into GMLARS range (I think). It would effectively sever the land bridge to Crimea overland. If Russia can't control Crimea, well, that weakens Russia's claims.

If I were in command of UAF, I'd drop the bridge and sever communications in preparation for the assault on Crimea. The peninsula must be the primary objective. Once it is retaken, it undoes Putin's foreign-policy aims of the last decade, and will be a defeat impossible to hide from the Russian people. It may well bring Putin's downfall.

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 17, 2023

Russia is blaming Ukraine for the fatal attack on a key bridge in Crimea that left two dead and one injured Monday.

One of the sections of the 12-mile Kerch Bridge in Crimea was blown up Monday, killing a married couple and injuring their daughter. Russia's National Anti-Terrorist Committee said that this explosion was caused by two Ukrainian sea drones.

Moscow is labeling the explosion as a terrorist attack as the bridge serves as a key symbol of Russia's claim to Crimea as it connects the two countries. Russia captured Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and has been utilizing the bridge to aid its military operations in southern Ukraine since the war started.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's Security Council, said Monday that Ukraine was a "terrorist organization," vowing in a Telegram post to "blow up their houses and houses of their relatives, search and eliminate their accomplices."

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4101040-russia-ukraine-to-blame-for-fatal-attack-on-key-bridge-in-crimea/

The hypocrisy is stunning, even after all this time.

Glider · Jul 17, 2023

Thumpalumpacus said:
That's my point: this is the first step in isolating the island.

If I were in command of UAF, I'd drop the bridge and sever communications in preparation for the assault on Crimea. The peninsula must be the primary objective. Once it is retaken, it undoes Putin's foreign-policy aims of the last decade, and will be a defeat impossible to hide from the Russian people. It may well bring Putin's downfall.

I have to totally agree with this. There must be some choke points on the way out of Crimea through the occupied land, and taking some of those out would also help

Do everything you can to stop both the road and rail bridges from working and the political impact will be huge.
a) A lot of people are on holiday or go on holiday in the Crimea. All of them will be significantly impacted and all the PR in the world will not be able to hide the humiliation from ordinary Russians.
b) Economically the impact on Crimea will be substantial as a good number of people will rely on the tourist trade.
c) Militarily Russia has a lot of people on the ground and keeping them supplied will be close to impossible. They will feel it and morale will fall like a stone.
d) The more morale drops the levels of insubordination will increase
e) Russian knows that this bridge is a high priority target. To let such a successful attack take place with no warning isn't a great advert for the Russian armed forces and a lot of people will be asking those questions

GrauGeist · Jul 17, 2023

What I really appreciate about this current Ukrainian offensive, is that there are pushes and nudges all across the board and the Russians are having to shuttle forces back and forth in an attempt to counter this.

Two takeaways from what I'm seeing:
First, it's keeping the Russians off-balance while consuming their precious resources.

Secondly, while pressure is being applied in one (or more) area(s), eyes are off Ukrainian element movements elsewhere. Which means the ability to conduct a buildup in strategic areas with little or no notice from Russian eyes.

I am still of the opinion that this current "offensive" is just a shell game, with the real fireworks soon to come.

SaparotRob · Jul 17, 2023

Greg Boeser said:
On a lighter note...

Ukrainian helicopter crew say women flash them as they fly overhead, boosting their morale as they fight Russia

A Ukrainian pilot told The Sunday Times they had saved the GPS locations of places where patriotic Ukrainian women had flashed them.

www.businessinsider.com

"That's what we're fighting for".

fubar57 · Jul 17, 2023

Anyone happen to know those GPS coordinates? Asking for a friend

Thumpalumpacus · Jul 17, 2023

Glider said:
I have to totally agree with this. There must be some choke points on the way out of Crimea through the occupied land, and taking some of those out would also help

There are, three roads or bridges aside from that crossing the Kerch Strait, according to a map in this Reuters article (it's right below the opening paragraphs) :

Sea drones, missile strikes and blockade: Ukraine's counteroffensive in Crimea

Ukraine’s attacks on the Crimean Bridge and Port of Sevastopol show how it plans to retake the peninsula by cutting it off from Russia

www.reuters.com

Glider said:
Do everything you can to stop both the road and rail bridges from working and the political impact will be huge.
a) A lot of people are on holiday or go on holiday in the Crimea. All of them will be significantly impacted and all the PR in the world will not be able to hide the humiliation from ordinary Russians.
b) Economically the impact on Crimea will be substantial as a good number of people will rely on the tourist trade.
c) Militarily Russia has a lot of people on the ground and keeping them supplied will be close to impossible. They will feel it and morale will fall like a stone.
d) The more morale drops the levels of insubordination will increase

And they're already having massive morale issues, as well as insubordination in the chain of command. Today's ISW update is a long read but well worth it.

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

www.understandingwar.org

Glider said:
e) Russian knows that this bridge is a high priority target. To let such a successful attack take place with no warning isn't a great advert for the Russian armed forces and a lot of people will be asking those questions

Right, and it indicates that even after last autumn's attacks, the Russians still don't have their act together defensively.

J_P_C · Jul 17, 2023

SaparotRob said:
Those things are scary. Hello Skynet.

nah - i'll be back.....

J_P_C · Jul 17, 2023

GrauGeist said:
Why does Singapore need a Russian Cultural Center?

thy would like to open couple really harsh prisons but clearly don't have basic skills to do so....

Mike Williams · Jul 17, 2023

I got a little chuckle out of this:

Greg Boeser · Jul 17, 2023

fubar57 said:
Anyone happen to know those GPS coordinates? Asking for a friend

That is highly classified information.

Admiral Beez · Jul 17, 2023

Greg Boeser said:
On a lighter note...

Ukrainian helicopter crew say women flash them as they fly overhead, boosting their morale as they fight Russia

A Ukrainian pilot told The Sunday Times they had saved the GPS locations of places where patriotic Ukrainian women had flashed them.

www.businessinsider.com

Going tits up is usually a bad thing. So, Slava Ukraini!

Admiral Beez · Jul 17, 2023

RogerdeLluria said:
The underground Crimean Tatar group taking up arms against Russia

The Atesh guerrilla group is active behind Russian lines, and leaders of the Indigenous movement say they are ready if they can get the weapons

www.theguardian.com

For all my years I thought they were referred to as Tartars, not Tatars.

So, then who made the sauce?

SaparotRob · Jul 17, 2023

Tin Tin.

GTX · Jul 17, 2023

Russia withdraws from Ukraine grain deal that feeds millions and helps curb global food prices

The UN-brokered initiative helped export more than 32 million tonnes of food from Ukraine, but Russia has withdrawn support until its own demands for expanded food and fertiliser exports are met.

www.abc.net.au

GTX · Jul 17, 2023

Ukrainian forces hint at involvement in attack on Crimean Bridge which left two dead, child injured

The bridge, a key Russian military supply route, was damaged by a pair of explosions that killed two people and injured a child on Monday, with Ukrainian security services issuing a statement that subtly acknowledged they may have been involved.

www.abc.net.au

GTX · Jul 17, 2023

A furious Putin, a busted bridge and a torn-up deal: Russia and Ukraine's wild 24 hours explained

The day started with two mysterious explosions on Putin's beloved Kerch bridge and ended with Russia withdrawing from a crucial deal to allow Ukrainian grain to pass through the Black Sea. Here's everything we know.

www.abc.net.au

GTX · Jul 17, 2023

View: https://youtu.be/FRyuC2gUjSQ

"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (12 Viewers)

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