The coming $26 billion windfall for the Canadian Armed Forces. What to buy?

[Frog]

That's only a problem if the US declares that somehow NATO-founding member Canada, where nearly all RCAF aircraft are thus equipped, cannot have access to US engines through SAAB. To do so would further enrage and motivate Canada, Europe and others to further decouple their military procurement from the US.

Notwithstanding France's desire for technological independence, the Rafale also relies on US tech. Has Washington ever blocked a Rafale sale?

How French is the Rafale? Huge American Inputs Needed to Make it Work

The French Rafale represents one of five fourth generation fighters developed in Europe, and since its entry into service in 2001 has increasingly formed the backbone of

militarywatchmagazine.com

A double edge weapon, as European techs are also dearly needed by US manufacturers : for example, Boeing Defense Systems, Northrop Grumman and Bell rely heavily on Safran for electrical cable networks, and big business lobbies have their words to say, notably as long as armament industries are concerned.

 

[Admiral Beez]

What about buying Korean?

ANALYSIS | South Korea, with its 'cheaper' version of the F-35, watches as Canada reviews U.S. fighter deal | CBC News

Korean Aerospace Industries' KF-21 has the same angled twin tails and similar sleek lines as Lockheed Martin's stealth fighter jet. And if all of the heated campaign rhetoric and trade war posturing is to be believed, Canada may be in the market for something other than the U.S.-manufactured F-35.

www.cbc.ca

And if Korean is on the menu, I'll take a half dozen KSS-III submarines (modified for under ice ops) and a hundred K2 Black Panther MBTs.

South Korea Offers Submarines to Canada as Relations with Washington Deteriorate

South Korea Offers Submarines to Canada as Relations with Washington Deteriorate

www.armyrecognition.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

A double edge weapon, as European techs are also dearly needed by US manufacturers : for example, Boeing Defense Systems, Northrop Grumman and Bell rely heavily on Safran for electrical cable networks, and big business lobbies have their words to say, notably as long as armament industries are concerned.

You want tariff wars, that cuts both ways. Current administration is historically ignorant.

 

[Warspite63]

You want tariff wars, that cuts both ways. Current administration is historically ignorant.

100% correct. Just as trade benefits both parties, hindering trade hurts them both. Apparently, this isn't obvious enough these days...

 

[Admiral Beez]

Now that the election's settled (as far as a minority gov't can be), I wonder what PM Carney will decide on the F-35 buy. We can't run the forty-plus year old CF-18 Hornet for another four years without the first replacements beginning to arrive.

 

[z42]

Now that the election's settled (as far as a minority gov't can be), I wonder what PM Carney will decide on the F-35 buy. We can't run the forty-plus year old CF-18 Hornet for another four years without the first replacements beginning to arrive.

Due to the timelines involved in getting a new fighter, and Canada probably(?) starting to run into flight hour limits for the current airframes, it seems unrealistic to change course at this point. If they're serious about divorcing themselves from US gear, join the GCAP or FCAS projects to develop a next gen fighter?

Alternatively, if showing a big middle finger to the current US president is seen as more important, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, cancel the F-35, and then lease some smaller numbers of 4th gen fighters as a stop-gap measure while restarting the tendering?

 

[GTX]

Now that the election's settled (as far as a minority gov't can be), I wonder what PM Carney will decide on the F-35 buy. We can't run the forty-plus year old CF-18 Hornet for another four years without the first replacements beginning to arrive.

I understand offical CF-188 LOT is 2032

 

[GTX]

Alternatively, if showing a big middle finger to the current US president is seen as more important, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, cancel the F-35, and then lease some smaller numbers of 4th gen fighters as a stop-gap measure while restarting the tendering?

14 F-35s are still on order.

Lease options might include EF Typhoons, Rafales or even Gripens though all would be in small numbers,

 

[Admiral Beez]

14 F-35s are still on order.

We could sell those before delivery to other F-35 buyers in the L-M queue. There will be fines/fees to pay, like when we canceled the AgustaWestland EH101 contract and had to pay CAD $500 million ($960 million in 2025 dollars), but the sunk cost fallacy reminds us not to throw good money after bad.

 

[Jabberwocky]

What about buying Korean?

The KF-21 relies heavily on US partners. Apart from the licenced builf F-414, direct US suppliers include:

Collins Aerospace (bleed air & environmental systems, engine starter)
PTI (aerial refueling system)
Eaton (hydraulics, oxygen system, weapon carriage/release systems)
Curtis-Wright (some sensors, data management system)
Triumph Group (engine accessories)

You could engineer those out and go with European or local partners, but that's going to delay the programme by multiple years.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The KF-21 relies heavily on US partners.

The point isn't to find systems without any US content, but to distribute Canada's defence spending more internationally. There's no evidence that the White House would block international manufacturers using US tech and components (like SAAB or KAI) from selling to Canada.

 

[GTX]

The point isn't to find systems without any US content, but to distribute Canada's defence spending more internationally. There's no evidence that the White House would block international manufacturers using US tech and components (like SAAB or KAI) from selling to Canada.

Not yet...

 

[Jabberwocky]

The point isn't to find systems without any US content, but to distribute Canada's defence spending more internationally. There's no evidence that the White House would block international manufacturers using US tech and components from selling to Canada.

If there's a competing US product, I rather suspect this particular White House would put blocks down. The first Trump administration wasn't above using ITAR and EAR as a cudgel to prevent some European products from being purchased by foreign customers.

I know of two occassions in 2017-2018 where preliminary deals for European satellites (one commerical sensing/earth observation and the other communications) fell through due to US meddeling around 'Dual-use' capabilities.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If there's a competing US product, I rather suspect this particular White House would put blocks down.

That would be a dumb move which pushes Canada to look for alternatives, but I'd agree that is the way. If Canada can't be trusted with GE's engine tech on the SAAB Gripen and KAI KF-21, then who can? And if that's the case, what should Canada do with the RCN's new destroyers to be built in partnership with Lockheed Martin Canada?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Some news…

South Korea pitches Canada on $20B-plus plan for subs, armoured vehicles | CBC News

A trio of South Korean defence companies have delivered detailed, unsolicited proposals to the federal government to quickly re-equip the Canadian navy and army with modern equipment. CBC News has learned the combined plans amount to more than $20 billion and include a promise to create...

www.cbc.ca

 

[GTX]

Breaking News: South Korea Pushes Rocket Launcher and Howitzer Deal in Canada Against Rival U.S. Offer

Breaking News: South Korea Pushes Rocket Launcher and Howitzer Deal in Canada Against Rival U.S. Offer

www.armyrecognition.com

 

[GTX]

Breaking News: South Korea Challenges U.S. Influence with Bold $20–$24 Billion Submarine Offer to Canada

Breaking News: South Korea Challenges U.S. Influence with Bold $20–$24 Billion Submarine Offer to Canada

www.armyrecognition.com

 

[GTX]

I would just caution Canadians about dealing with Sth Korean Defence companies. They might offer a lot up front...but be careful to make sure they follow through once contracts are signed.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I would just caution Canadians about dealing with Sth Korean Defence companies. They might offer a lot up front...but be careful to make sure they follow through once contracts are signed.

I suppose the test will be if the Poles are happy with their recent deliveries from Korea, including their new K2 Black Panther tanks, K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light combat aircraft and Chunmoo multiple rocket launch systems.

 

[z42]

South Korea seems to be on a roll recently, they've got a lot of export wins for their heavy vehicles. And for ships, they're the second largest produces of merchant ships in the world, after China, so they sure know how to churn out hulls economically (now whether that translates into competent warships is another matter).