"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (70 Viewers)

[GTX]

More 'public' than leaving Afghanistan with 1000's of Americans (and allies) in-country - with no plan to protect them?

Yes unfortunately. If no other reason than this is happening in Europe. I appreciate that that is unfair but it is the reality. I would also argue that the failure of Afghanistan and the debacle of the end was exactly because the political will was not there to support. If Ukraine is abandoned now we will see something even worse.

I AM livid that the NATO/EU/US leadership let this happen in the first place.

I agree but again it is what it is - as I posted above, this is very much a Black Swan event. We also don't have a time machine to go back to right the wrongs of 2014.

I am sad that more than a million'teen age kids' and men on both sides will not have a good reason to be dead... not to mention children, old folks and women are caught up in the conflagration.

This could have been avoided if Putin didn't invade. It can also be ended if Putin withdraws. Giving Putin 1 cm of Ukrainian land will only make the deaths for nothing...and will embolden him and other wannabes to do similar.

 

[GTX]

Institute for the Study of War

The United States has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think. A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit. Such an outcome

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Ukraine War is very much a "Black Swan" event - i.e. high-impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but that in retrospect appears to have been inevitable.

I think with the six months' lead-up in 2021, it was indeed somewhat foreseeable. We had satellite imagery showing Russian forces moving into place.

 

[GTX]

I think with the six months' lead-up in 2021, it was indeed somewhat foreseeable. We had satellite imagery showing Russian forces moving into place.

Hence the "in retrospect appears to have been inevitable" bit. I would also add that part of the Black Swan part here was that even those who could see what was happening were certain that Russia would prevail and quickly. They were not ready for the Zelensky 'I need ammunition, not a ride' moment and everything else that went with it nor were they ready for the reality of Russia's performance.

 

[GTX]

EU gives green light to Ukraine membership talks in shock win for Kyiv

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Hence the "in retrospect appears to have been inevitable" bit. I would also add that part of the Black Swan part here was that even those who could see what was happening were certain that Russia would prevail and quickly. They were not ready for the Zelensky 'I need ammunition, not a ride' moment and everything else that went with it nor were they ready for the reality of Russia's performance.

I wasn't surprised when it happened. I was surprised that Putin was that stupid, but the forces arrayed made it fairly clear.

That could not have changed the equipment/supply schedule too much. But claiming that retrospect is required doesn't hold water to me.

 

[drgondog]

The Ukraine War is very much a "Black Swan" event - i.e. high-impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but that in retrospect appears to have been inevitable.

I could agree but the did the nagging 'no Western resistance' for Crimea and Georgia excursions make Ukraine 'less risky' in Putin's calculations?

 

[GTX]

I could agree but the did the nagging 'no Western resistance' for Crimea and Georgia excursions make Ukraine 'less risky' in Putin's calculations?

It probably did...but the world has changed.

 

[SaparotRob]

EU gives green light to Ukraine membership talks in shock win for Kyiv

Wasn't expecting that.

 

[Denniss]

at the cost of a 10 Bn Euro bribe for Orban

 

[Jabberwocky]

I would ask - With a two to three year gap in inventory over next couple of years? Our preparedness today is far short of 2020, and the threat from China is far greater. We were energy independent then, today we are back to 2001 threshold of production vs requirements of US capacity to suport itself.

Huh? And double huh? Where are you getting that?

The US wasn't energy independent in 2020, but it was a net energy exporter. The US still relied heavily on oil and natural gas imports in 2020 to meet its liquid fuels need. The USA of 2023 is a little less dependent on foreign imports and this trend will continue. That's thanks to broadly flat domestic consumption over the past two decades, and massively increasing domestic production.

At the moment, the US is:

A) Producing more energy than it ever has. Energy production has gone from ~70 quadrillion BTUs in 2005 to ~103 quadrillion BTUs in 2022 (and will grow again this year). Meanwhile consumption has almost static since 2005, at roughly 100 to 103 quadrillion BTUs.
B) Importing less energy overall than at any point since the mid 1990s and proportionally less (share of energy mix) than at any point since WW2.
C) Enjoying its largest ever energy production surplus and exporting more energy than it ever has (a record 4.3 quadrillion BTUs exported in the year to July 2023, up nearly 40% on 2022 and more than double that of 2021). If net exports are positive in December 2023, it will be the first time since the 1950s that the US has been a net energy exporter for every single month of a calendar year.

Consumption:

2001 US energy consumption: 95.95 quadrillion BTUs
2020 US energy consumption: 92.826 quadrillion BTUs
2022 US energy consumption: 100.325 quadrillion BTUs (2020 to 2022 change: 7.499 quadrillion BTUs (+8.1%))

Production:

2001 US energy production: 71.667 quadrillion BTUs
2020 US energy production: 95.671 quadrillion BTUs
2022 US energy production: 102.923 quadrillion BTUs (Change: 7.252 quadrillion BTUs (+7.6%))

Since 2001, the US has gone from a 24.3 quadrillion BTU production deficit to a 2.6 quadrillion BTU surplus.

The surplus did drop marginally between 2020 and 222 (by 0.2 quadrillion BTUs). But, that's only because domestic consumption fell HUGELY in 2020, because most of the US was locked down in 2020 thanks to COVID!. Refinery capacity dropped from about 90% to about 70% (and is now back above 90%).

US liquid fuels (all types) refinery capacity:

Jan 1st, 2001: 34,491 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st 2020: 49,317 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st, 2023: 47,479 Thousand barrels per stream day
Forecast Jan 1st 2024 capacity: 48,900 Thousand barrels per stream day

US petroleum refinery capacity:

Jan 1st, 2001: 14,940 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st 2020: 16,860 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st, 2023: 15,624 Thousand barrels per stream day
Sep 1st, 2023: 16,713 Thousand barrels per stream day

All data sourced from the US Energy Information Administration:

FOTW #1310, October 2, 2023: The United States Has Been a Positive Net Exporter of Primary Energy Since 2019

Exports of primary energy have increased every year since 2002, starting at 3.6 quadrillion Btu (quads) and rising to 27.5 quads in 2022.

www.energy.gov

U.S. energy facts - imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. energy imports and exports since 1950.

www.eia.gov

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/archive/00352311.pdf (Check page 2)

U.S. Gross Inputs to Refineries (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Sorry, but I have to look at these charts weekly for work and this sort of casual misinformation drives me crazy.

 

[SaparotRob]

at the cost of a 10 Bn Euro bribe for Orban

I thought he was holding out for 30 Bn Euros. I'd still take it as a win.

 

[gumbyk]

Huh? And double huh? Where are you getting that?

The US wasn't energy independent in 2020, but it was a net energy exporter. The US still relied heavily on oil and natural gas imports in 2020 to meet its liquid fuels need. The USA of 2023 is a little less dependent on foreign imports and this trend will continue. That's thanks to broadly flat domestic consumption over the past two decades, and massively increasing domestic production.

At the moment, the US is:

A) Producing more energy than it ever has. Energy production has gone from ~70 quadrillion BTUs in 2005 to ~103 quadrillion BTUs in 2022 (and will grow again this year). Meanwhile consumption has almost static since 2005, at roughly 100 to 103 quadrillion BTUs.
B) Importing less energy overall than at any point since the mid 1990s and proportionally less (share of energy mix) than at any point since WW2.
C) Enjoying its largest ever energy production surplus and exporting more energy than it ever has (a record 4.3 quadrillion BTUs exported in the year to July 2023, up nearly 40% on 2022 and more than double that of 2021). If net exports are positive in December 2023, it will be the first time since the 1950s that the US has been a net energy exporter for every single month of a calendar year.

Consumption:

2001 US energy consumption: 95.95 quadrillion BTUs
2020 US energy consumption: 92.826 quadrillion BTUs
2022 US energy consumption: 100.325 quadrillion BTUs (2020 to 2022 change: 7.499 quadrillion BTUs (+8.1%))

Production:

2001 US energy production: 71.667 quadrillion BTUs
2020 US energy production: 95.671 quadrillion BTUs
2022 US energy production: 102.923 quadrillion BTUs (Change: 7.252 quadrillion BTUs (+7.6%))

Since 2001, the US has gone from a 24.3 quadrillion BTU production deficit to a 2.6 quadrillion BTU surplus.

The surplus did drop marginally between 2020 and 222 (by 0.2 quadrillion BTUs). But, that's only because domestic consumption fell HUGELY in 2020, because most of the US was locked down in 2020 thanks to COVID!. Refinery capacity dropped from about 90% to about 70% (and is now back above 90%).

US liquid fuels (all types) refinery capacity:

Jan 1st, 2001: 34,491 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st 2020: 49,317 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st, 2023: 47,479 Thousand barrels per stream day
Forecast Jan 1st 2024 capacity: 48,900 Thousand barrels per stream day

US petroleum refinery capacity:

Jan 1st, 2001: 14,940 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st 2020: 16,860 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st, 2023: 15,624 Thousand barrels per stream day
Sep 1st, 2023: 16,713 Thousand barrels per stream day

All data sourced from the US Energy Information Administration:

FOTW #1310, October 2, 2023: The United States Has Been a Positive Net Exporter of Primary Energy Since 2019

Exports of primary energy have increased every year since 2002, starting at 3.6 quadrillion Btu (quads) and rising to 27.5 quads in 2022.

www.energy.gov

U.S. energy facts - imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. energy imports and exports since 1950.

www.eia.gov

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/archive/00352311.pdf (Check page 2)

U.S. Gross Inputs to Refineries (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Sorry, but I have to look at these charts weekly for work and this sort of casual misinformation drives me crazy.

Don't let truth get in the way of a good complaint!

 

[ThomasP]

re US oil independence

Disclaimer: As Jabberwocky implies above, it depends a bit on how you define "energy independence".

Prior to 2020, the year 1952(53?) was the last time the US was independent of oil and oil products imports for the whole year.

If the data from the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) is correct, then the US has been a net oil and oil products exporter from the end of 2020 thru 2022, and will be for 2023 also. Note that the commodities markets corroborate the data.

There were a couple of quarters in 2021 when we we were net importers, but there were also a couple of quarters in 2021 when we were net exporters, with the total for the year making the US a net exporter.

The chart below (based on EIA data) shows the values for net imports from Jan'2001 thru Dec'2021. The values for 2021 and 2022 (from the same sources, but not incorporated in the chart) are net exports of 1.26M BPD in 2021 and 1.19M BPD in 2022. The data for 2023 is not complete yet, but if there is no bizarre change in the numbers for the 4th quarter, it looks like the US will be a net exporter of oil and oil products (at ~3M BPD) for 2023 also.

I find the downward trend since 2005 interesting as well as the plateaus. It will be interesting to see if the chart shows another major downward trend in the next few years.

It should be noted that the US remained a net importer of crude oil in 2022 (as Jabberwocky's post implies) and has been continuously since WWII as the following charts from the EIA show. The numbers for 2022 show an import:export ratio of ~1.5:1. However, if the current trend continues, the US may become a net exporter of crude oil sometime in the next few years.

 

[drgondog]

I stand corrected on energy independence.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

An op-ed I found at The Hill. I agree with its basic precepts.

Ukraine and Israel are in the same fight

If you take seriously the art of seeing the world as “a single city” — a view that the ancient Greeks called “geopolitics” — the situation is clear.

thehill.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Congress has approved legislation that would prevent any president from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress.

The measure, spearheaded by Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), was included in the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which passed out of the House on Thursday and is expected to be signed by President Biden.

The provision underscores Congress's commitment to the NATO alliance that was a target of former President Trump's ire during his term in office. The alliance has taken on revitalized importance under Biden, especially since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

"NATO has held strong in response to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's war in Ukraine and rising challenges around the world," Kaine said in a statement. He added the legislation "reaffirms U.S. support for this crucial alliance that is foundational for our national security. It also sends a strong message to authoritarians around the world that the free world remains united."

Rubio said the measure served as a critical tool for congressional oversight.

Congress approves bill barring any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO

Congress has approved legislation that would prevent any president from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress. The measure, spearheade…

thehill.com

 

[GTX]

An op-ed I found at The Hill. I agree with its basic precepts.

Ukraine and Israel are in the same fight

If you take seriously the art of seeing the world as “a single city” — a view that the ancient Greeks called “geopolitics” — the situation is clear.

thehill.com

I would go further and assert that the attacks on Israel are at the request of Putin via Iran so as to distract the west...which it has help do.

 

[GTX]

UK transfers 2 minehunter ships to Ukrainian Navy

The United Kingdom has announced the formation of a new Maritime Capability Coalition, alongside Norway, to deliver long term support to Ukraine including training, equipment and infrastructure to en

www.defenceconnect.com.au

 

[GTX]

Estonia approves sending Javelins to Ukraine in new aid package | Defense News December 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year

Estonia approves sending Javelins to Ukraine in new aid package

www.armyrecognition.com