"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)

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Vampire is unlikely due to the range.
Vilkha is possible, it's just a hazardous enterprise to move such a valuable asset so close to the border.
UAVs are very likely (of several types).

As for copying... collateral damage is inevitable, drones can fall anywhere when jammed/shot down/damaged. So as the fragments of air defence missiles and even the missiles when they astray. We saw that in the cities of Ukraine.

To paraphrase one famous Englishman:
"The Russians entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everybody else and nobody was going to bomb them.
At Mariupol, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and half a hundred other places, they put that rather naive theory into operation.
They sowed the wind and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.
Belgorod, Bryansk —Those are only just the beginning.
We cannot send a thousand drones a time over the Russian Federation every time, as yet.
But the time will come when we can do so.
It may take a year. It may take two.
But for the Kremlin, the writing is on the wall.
Let them look out for themselves. The cure is in their own hands.
There are a lot of people who say that UAV attacks can never win a war.
Well, my answer to that is that it has never been tried yet, and we shall see.
Russian Federation, clinging more and more desperately to her widespread conquests and even seeking foolishly for more, will make a most interesting initial experiment..."
 
Any guesses on what Ukraine's 2024 spring/summer offensive will look like? My hope is that the US, NATO and West have their domestic issues sorted and that aid over the winter/spring arrives aplenty. This should include hundreds of mine clearing and breaching systems.
 
About Belgorod, Russian Federation.
I just looked at more videos and can confirm that it looks like an MLRS attack, indeed.
Some videos are almost identical to many others shot in Ukrainian cities since 2015. For example, the first "Grad" attack on Mariupol, 24 Jan 2015:

View: https://youtu.be/-t8lsARpHX4?si=2xH9FM59iYT93ZRV
I'm not happy about the death of civilians even in a country where 70%-80% of the population is convinced of their right to a war of aggression. But... "they sowed the wind".
Hopefully, our forces will do their best to avoid collateral damage in the future. 300 mm projectile can do better than land on the city's square.
 
First, we need to survive and hold the line with minimum losses. Without more volumes of military aid (and without more long-range stuff) than in 2022-2023, a large-scale offensive is a gamble. If aid volume decreases significantly it will be difficult and costly to hold the current positions. If no aid at all from big players such as the US, Germany, UK, we'll have to retreat and trade territory for a time. In that scenario, I'm afraid, all bets will be off and there'll be no more "red lines" for Ukrainian forces (as not using certain systems across the border, etc.).
I'm sure for one thing, this country will not go down as France in 1940 or the Republic of Vietnam in 1975.
 

It will have F-16s and Abrams, and longer-ranged ATACMs. It still needs to aim south or southeast, because Crimea is the crucial ground.
 
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Thumpalumpacus said:
It still needs to aim south or southeast, because Crimea is the crucial ground.
Click to expand...
Not without what may prove to be the world's largest accumulation of counterbattery-resistant mineclearing and breaching capability. Otherwise Vipers and better ATACMS can only continue the AFU's 2023 dual strategy of slowing/stopping Russian offensives and hitting supply/leadership/naval targets in the rear.

Ukraine has the tanks, IFVs and men ready to move forward. It's breaching capability (and its protection from the air via SAMs, Vipers, MiGs, Sukhois and drones) that's desperately needed.
 
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GTX said:
Putin's War Machine Depends on a Railroad Built by Tsars
Click to expand...
Your railway post reminded me of my old idea on the Calcutta to Singapore railway.

Calcutta-Singapore Railway complete 1925

Let's complete a dual track railway from Calcutta through Burma and Thailand across the causeway into Singapore, with competition by 1925. A POD is required to justify this expense over maritime transport - suggestions welcome. The first challenge will be building the railway through Burma's...
www.alternatehistory.com
 
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