"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (40 Viewers)

[fubar57]

The U.S. says the 'ball is now in Russia's court.' But what really happens if Putin agrees to a ceasefire? | CBC News

Ukraine agreeing to an interim ceasefire along the sprawling 1,200 kilometre frontline Tuesday was hailed as a major step toward peace, but Russia has yet to respond to the U.S. proposal and reaching an agreement will be a challenge, observers say. If Russia does accept, making the truce an...

www.cbc.ca

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The U.S. says the 'ball is now in Russia's court.' But what really happens if Putin agrees to a ceasefire? | CBC News

Ukraine agreeing to an interim ceasefire along the sprawling 1,200 kilometre frontline Tuesday was hailed as a major step toward peace, but Russia has yet to respond to the U.S. proposal and reaching an agreement will be a challenge, observers say. If Russia does accept, making the truce an...

www.cbc.ca

Russia will draw this out as long as possible before rejecting it on some spurious grounds.

 

[Frog]

True, although France's nuclear forces remain outside the NATO Nuclear Plans Group so there's still a feeling of "partially in, partially out." Then there's the collaborative aircraft programs where France has been an original member, only to quit the program and build its own competing airframe. For good or ill, France still has a reputation of looking far more to its own interests than to collective collaboration. This includes France urging other NATO members to spend more on defense when France, itself, only barely clears the NATO 2% of GDP threshold. I think there's a need to replace words with actions (and money) to build trust and accelerate the growth of European-centric defense.

I truly would LOVE to see Europe stand up and be counted, with demonstrable, home-grown military capabilities...and I'd LOVE to see France being a strong partner in those endeavors. Unfortunately, I fear politics will get in the way and it'll be more of the same, with increasing risk that Europe essentially becomes irrelevant because it can't get its act together.

Our nukes were conceived and paid by French taxpayers, not by the EU. These are strategic weapons and the quintessential symbol of a national independance.

And considering the EU bureaucratic behavior, I would fear the most with an involvement of the EU in military affairs, that by law are not even of its competence but that it tends to appropriate.

Paradoxically for a Frenchman, I share the common British opinion on the EU : a good idea ruined by its application.

As for French commitment with NATO : Afghanistan, 90 deaths, 700 wounded, for finally nothing.

 

[Frog]

A typical stereotype would imply an abuse of Vodka. Sadly one crewmember was lost due to his behaviour.

Cigarettes for the inboard fire.

 

[Glider]

On a different angle. It looks as if Russia is starting to upset China of all people. So much cargo and equipment has been stolen / confiscated by Russia that China is stopping all cargo going through Russia which is having a significant financial impact.
That is such a frankly stupid thing to do.

MSN

 

[buffnut453]

On a different angle. It looks as if Russia is starting to upset China of all people. So much cargo and equipment has been stolen / confiscated by Russia that China is stopping all cargo going through Russia which is having a significant financial impact.
That is such a frankly stupid thing to do.

MSN

That's the problem when you build a nation on grift/graft...it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

 

[Frog]

On a different angle. It looks as if Russia is starting to upset China of all people. So much cargo and equipment has been stolen / confiscated by Russia that China is stopping all cargo going through Russia which is having a significant financial impact.
That is such a frankly stupid thing to do.

MSN

Right of Angary : an international right disposition that enables a belligerant nation to requisition transports of neutral countries (originally maritime and later extended to other transports) and use them for its own purpose provided a relevant compensation.
Now, as the Russians do not pay anything...

 

[swampyankee]

Russia will draw this out as long as possible before rejecting it on some spurious grounds.

...or accept it and violate it shortly after somebody gets of their executive 747 and makes a speech about peace in our time.

Putin has demonstrated - most blatantly by his invasion of Ukraine -- that he's not to be trusted.

 

[MiTasol]

Most of that is above my paygrade, but who in Europe commands respect such that his influence crosses borders and unifies a continent? Starmer is struggling to sell himself to the British polity, the Germans have to deal with 20% support for AfD (which is anti-intervention), and does Macron have enough sway to pull it off?

The West looks, to me, largely leaderless. Our European members, feel free to correct my American perceptions to my open ears.

I thought I posted this yesterday before going to town and only just found it waiting to go

You are correct that the west is leaderless but that is because the administration of the country which has been leader for the last 80 years, and who repeatedly and emphatically stated they were the leader of the free world, has abandoned the west to get in bed with the Kremlin.

Ukraine is one obvious choice as the free world leader because it has demonstrated that it CAN fight back and innovate and is now the world leader in many military technologies.

Sweden is another country that comes to mind.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciG36x4YLFE

gives a short recent history of that country.

Poland is another that is not waffling and showing it is less and less likely to obey the people who have abandoned the west.

 

[Frog]

Last Monday, the French SSN Tourville (Barracuda class) made a call at Halifax officially for victuailing.
Looks also like a signal to Russia's provocations in the vicinity.
There are ample food in a nuclear sub (notably a French one...) for a long term cruise.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The French operate 4 E-3A Sentries, the Swedes also operate AWACS, perhaps they could help?

Regarding this --

A French Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, escorted by two Dassault Rafale B fighter jets, conducted a surveillance mission over the Black Sea, approaching within 150 kilometers of the Crimean Peninsula.

The flight was tracked by Flightradar and other aviation monitoring platforms, indicating France's continued aerial presence in the region amid heightened tensions.

According to flight tracking data, the Boeing E-3F AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft carried out its mission over international waters while the two Rafale jets provided escort.

French AWACS monitors Black Sea near Crimea

A French Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, escorted by two Dassault Rafale B fighter jets, conducted a surveillance mission over the Black Sea, approaching within 150 kilometers of the Crimean Peninsula. The flight was tracked by Flightradar and other aviation monitoring

defence-blog.com

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Regarding this --

A French Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, escorted by two Dassault Rafale B fighter jets, conducted a surveillance mission over the Black Sea, approaching within 150 kilometers of the Crimean Peninsula.

The flight was tracked by Flightradar and other aviation monitoring platforms, indicating France's continued aerial presence in the region amid heightened tensions.

According to flight tracking data, the Boeing E-3F AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft carried out its mission over international waters while the two Rafale jets provided escort.

French AWACS monitors Black Sea near Crimea

A French Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, escorted by two Dassault Rafale B fighter jets, conducted a surveillance mission over the Black Sea, approaching within 150 kilometers of the Crimean Peninsula. The flight was tracked by Flightradar and other aviation monitoring

defence-blog.com

Any idea of the origin airbase?

 

[Frog]

Any idea of the origin airbase?

Base aérienne 702 Avord - Escadron de Détection et de Contrôle Aéroportés 36 « Berry ».

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Base aérienne 702 Avord - Escadron de Ddétection et de Contrôle Aéroportés 36 « Berry ».

A long way from Crimea. Plenty of air refuelling I guess.

 

[Frog]

A long way from Crimea. Plenty of air refuelling I guess.

And this is there that NATO responds : the tankers were not necessarily French.

 

[Glider]

Looks as if a number of the Russian nuclear forces are now being drafted in a foot soldiers. This must be very worrying for Russia as they would be the last people you would draft in. Even more concerning is that a number of them seem to have come from engineering and technical support units. I would have expected those people to have been sent to the repair and engineering bases.

MSN

 

[fubar57]

The headline alone made me almost snort my morning coffee out my nose

U.S.-proposed ceasefire in Ukraine would 'give nothing' to Russia, says Kremlin aide | CBC News

A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, proposed by the U.S., would "give nothing" to Russia while helping Kyiv by giving its weary and short-handed military a break, a Kremlin aide said Thursday.

www.cbc.ca

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Any idea of the origin airbase?

I was wondering that myself. After a little digging I found this:

During the Wednesday Rafale mission, flight tracking platforms showed an unidentified military aircraft loitering in airspace over southeast Romania, flying at speeds and altitudes typical for a long-range reconnaissance aircraft. The Ukrainian military information platform Krymsky Veter, citing local air traffic sources, said that plane was a French Air Force AWACS airborne radar platform.

The flight track shown in the article implies Romania or Hungary, but there's no explicit mention of the launching base.

Air Trackers: French Air Force Launches Top-of-the-Line Fighters on Dicey Deep Black Sea Patrol

Air reconnaissance on the NATO southeast frontier is intensifying, with Britain long leading the air ops effort and now France stepping in more. Americans are close to invisible – and not by stealth.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[Glider]

The headline alone made me almost snort my morning coffee out my nose

U.S.-proposed ceasefire in Ukraine would 'give nothing' to Russia, says Kremlin aide | CBC News

A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, proposed by the U.S., would "give nothing" to Russia while helping Kyiv by giving its weary and short-handed military a break, a Kremlin aide said Thursday.

www.cbc.ca

Huge error. The coffee was more important.

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Ukraine On Verge Of Losing Key City In Russia's Kursk Region

The fall of Sudzha would represent a huge blow to Ukraine's efforts to hold onto its Kursk salient.

www.twz.com

Balloon-Launched Drone To Intercept Long Range Kamikaze Drones Emerges In Ukraine

The aerostat-mounted drone interceptor system is another example of the resurgence of interest in using balloons in modern conflicts.

www.twz.com

Putin Open To Ceasefire Deal But Says "Nuances" Must Be Addressed First

Russia has indicated it will demand Ukraine not be able to mobilize and train soldiers, or receive Western weapons, during any ceasefire.

www.twz.com