Jabberwocky
Tech Sergeant
The way the Russian economy is being reshaped to support the war effort, a sudden peace would probably do MORE damage in the short term than continuing the war.
ISW has been banging on this drum for the last 4-5 months. They think that Russia is gearing up for what it considers an inevitable conflict with NATO before 2030.
From April: "The Kremlin continues to repurpose narratives that Russian officials have repeatedly used to justify Russia's invasions of Ukraine in an effort to further militarize Russian society in the long term, likely in preparation for a potential future protracted conflict with NATO."
WSJ just released an 'explainer' on this (its okayish) - https://www.wsj.com/video/series/ne...h-longer/E6F83086-EFD1-475D-B39C-AFDFCD6181CB
This analysis offers a deeper dive: Why Russia's economic model no longer delivers .
There was a good, if brief, piece for the Institute for Economics and Peace. The main thrust is that short-term gain is long term pain:
Russia's war economy is driving short-term growth at the cost of long-term viability. The model depends on ever-increasing state spending, primarily directed at defence, while civilian needs and productive sectors of the economy are neglected. Inflation is high, investment is constrained and essential and productive services such as education, social security and healthcare are eroding. The government's fiscal manoeuvring – cutting social transfers, drawing from reserves and borrowing domestically – can delay, but not resolve, these problems.