When the war first started I wondered if China would make a smart move to abandon its support of Russia (see
Sino-Soviet split) and throw its lot in with Ukraine, with a move to get its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from the Stans (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) to Europe through Ukraine. Imagine Putin's faceplant if in March 2022, China denounces Russia's action and votes in favour of
UN ES-11/1, condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is followed in Sept 2022 by Xi Jinping inviting Zelenskyy to meet privately with him
in Kazakhstan during Xi's first international trip since Covid, after which non-lethal aid begins to flow from China to Ukraine. Next, in Dec 2022,
Xi visited Saudi Arabia, and in this scenario, after securing oil supplies from the Arabs, announces that China will begin limiting its purchases of Russian oil and gas, with an aim to be zero on both by the end of 2024. In 2024, China unilaterally cancels the 2008 China-Russia Border Agreement and demands that negotiations begin on returning territory to China. Then I woke up, sigh...