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Allegedly, many of them drive each day to Russia's mainland to buy fuel and return. Or used to drive until recently.Are any Russians left in Crimea? This video makes me wonder:
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#ukraine #militarystrategy #europeansecurity | Tim De Zitter | 70 comments
ðð¿ð¶ðºð²ð®âð ð¢ð°ð°ðð½ð®ðð¶ð¼ð» ð¡ð¼ð ðð®ð ð ð§ð¿ð®ð³ð³ð¶ð° ðð®ðº âï¸ Satellite imagery reportedly shows a traffic jam of more than 10 kilometres near the Kerch Bridge, with around 1,500 cars backed up as people try to leave occupied Crimea. That image says more than a battlefield map. For...www.linkedin.com
Oh no, not the dreaded "escalation" that we've been hearing about since day four...
There was something on Instagram earlier today where it claims Putin is mobilizing over 700,000 troops for his final push. I seriously doubt he actually said that but the bots are high fiving each other as if he didOh no, not the dreaded "escalation" that we've been hearing about since day four...![]()
Thanks for thisI'm trying to remember my estimates of the pre-war (2014) Crimean annual consumption and imports from the mainland. I did an extended analysis at the time when talks about the bridge had just begun. From the top of my head, total imports were around 3,5 mln t per year.. Excluding port transit (Crimean ports were export-oriented) and excluding the water supply by canal from the mainland. And including tourism-related imports, 0,2 mln t or so.
Since 2014 and 2022, especially, military traffic has increased significantly, and there has been migration in and out. Current figures are impossible to obtain; we can assume that fuel and construction materials (roads, fortifications) increased many times. Total is over 8.0 mln t, maybe.
If we take pre-war (2014) local consumption (excluding tourism) as the baseline, that means 3.3 mln t per year. Many hundreds of trucks per day.
Crimean ports are an unknown factor. They were degrading since 2014 due to sanctions. But then they were given a new job to export/tranship plundered Ukrainian grain, and some terminals restored their capacity. They can contribute to consumer imports into Crimea.
I'm not really concerned about Russia raising more manpower, considering that Ukraine's drone forces have been working overtime to find meat targets lately. If Russia did send 700K bodies to the front, it would be like the Kreigsmarine's U-Boat "happy time" during WWII.There was something on Instagram earlier today where it claims Putin is mobilizing over 700,000 troops for his final push. I seriously doubt he actually said that but the bots are high fiving each other as if he did