Greg Boeser
1st Lieutenant
And keep in mind that even so-called reliable sites are susceptible to confirmation bias, agenda-pushing and suppressing inconvenient information that is counter-narrative.
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (51 Viewers)
- Thread starter XBe02Drvr
- Start date
Thumpalumpacus
Colonel
Thumpalumpacus
Colonel
After an assault on Kyiv was defeated in March by strong Ukrainian resistance, Russia poured more troops in for a huge offensive in the east last month. But Russian gains have been slow at best, and Western arms are flooding into Ukraine for an expected counter-attack.
Western military experts - many of whom initially predicted a quick Russian victory - now say Moscow could be running out of fresh troops. A full declaration of war would let Putin activate reservists and send conscripts.
"What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. If he didn't declare war, or a general mobilisation, that's what (is) important," tweeted Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at Britain's University of St Andrews.
"Without concrete steps to build a new force, Russia can't fight a long war, and the clock starts ticking on the failure of their army in Ukraine."
Putin's Victory Day speech gives no clue on Ukraine escalation
President Vladimir Putin exhorted Russians to battle in a defiant Victory Day speech on Monday, but was silent about plans for any escalation in Ukraine, despite Western warnings he might use his Red Square address to order a national mobilisation.
www.reuters.com
Never mind the fact that he's already been using conscripts. I agree that if he doesn't call up reserves he won't have the manpower to take and hold Ukraine.
Thinking about this this morning, it seems to me that the closer Russia edges to defeat, the closer we are to seeing them deploy WMDs of one sort or the other.
Thumpalumpacus
Colonel
And --
Russian forces have not made any significant progress in Moscow's new offensive in eastern Ukraine, a situation partly due to poor morale and some troops "refusing to obey orders," a senior U.S. defense official said Monday.
"We still see anecdotal reports of poor morale of troops, indeed officers, refusing to obey orders and move and not really sound command and control from a leadership perspective," the official told reporters.
The official later said "midgrade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level" either have refused to obey orders "or are not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey."
Russian forces have struggled to make major gains in the Donbas region of Ukraine since beginning a new offensive in the area last month.
On top of dealing with morale issues that have lingered since the start of the war on Feb. 24, the Kremlin also is struggling to resupply its troops and move its weapons and equipment in muddy spring weather, the official said.
Still, Moscow continues to send operational battalion tactical groups (BTGs) into Ukraine, with 97 such groups in the country, up from 92 late last month, according to the official. Each BTG typically consists of about 700 to 800 soldiers.
This struck me as germane considering the debate upthread about how many Russian troops were in-country. It also underscores the continuing Russian difficulty with logistics.
Russian forces have not made any significant progress in Moscow's new offensive in eastern Ukraine, a situation partly due to poor morale and some troops "refusing to obey orders," a senior U.S. defense official said Monday.
"We still see anecdotal reports of poor morale of troops, indeed officers, refusing to obey orders and move and not really sound command and control from a leadership perspective," the official told reporters.
The official later said "midgrade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level" either have refused to obey orders "or are not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey."
Russian forces have struggled to make major gains in the Donbas region of Ukraine since beginning a new offensive in the area last month.
On top of dealing with morale issues that have lingered since the start of the war on Feb. 24, the Kremlin also is struggling to resupply its troops and move its weapons and equipment in muddy spring weather, the official said.
Still, Moscow continues to send operational battalion tactical groups (BTGs) into Ukraine, with 97 such groups in the country, up from 92 late last month, according to the official. Each BTG typically consists of about 700 to 800 soldiers.
Pentagon: Russian military continues to struggle with poor morale, refusal to obey orders
Russian forces have not made any significant progress in Moscow’s new offensive in eastern Ukraine, a situation partly due to poor morale and some troops “refusing to obey orders,” a senior U.S. de…
thehill.com
This struck me as germane considering the debate upthread about how many Russian troops were in-country. It also underscores the continuing Russian difficulty with logistics.
Admiral Beez
Major
It won't be a tactical nuke, but I wouldn't rule out a chemical weapon attack. Of course the prevailing wind would send any large strike straight into the Donbas region. A smaller chemical attack, like we saw in Iraq or Syria can't really be considered a WMD attack.
Thumpalumpacus
Colonel
I'd disagree, considering that chemical weapons are considered part of the triad of NBC WMDs. Even a small chemical attack, if verified, is using a WMD.
Their use in Syria, and earlier in the Iran-Iraq war, wasn't punished because no one gave a damn about the folks killed so much as to take action. I think that'll be a little different here.
Thumpalumpacus
Colonel
In the Donbas, the Russian effort is described as "incremental and somewhat anemic." The Russians have relied on their traditional doctrine, which calls for artillery shelling to soften up Ukrainian positions in advance of a Russian ground offensive.
1917 called, it wants its tactics back.
Russia celebrates the end of World War II as Putin justifies starting a war in Ukraine
Orange and black ribbons are draped across Russia to celebrate Victory Day, which marks the end of World War II. President Vladimir Putin used the opportunity to justify the invasion of Ukraine in a speech that repeated a series of false claims.
www.npr.org
1917 called, it wants its tactics back.
RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
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Escuadrilla Azul
Master Sergeant
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- Feb 27, 2020
Another fiasco to note in Uncle Vlad account
MiTasol
Major
I was pleased to see Canada sending top government folks to Ukraine. We have a lot of Ukrainians and their descendants in Canada, including my wife (and our kids, though only part, as an ex-pat Brit I'm the first non-Ukie in the extended family).
KGB archives show how Chrystia Freeland drew the ire (and respect) of Soviet intelligence services
Chrystia Freeland’s ties to Ukraine are no secret, but KBG archives illuminate her role in the Ukrainian independence movement during her days as a studentwww.theglobeandmail.com
Freeland is Trudeau's likely success as PM when he tires of the work, and the camera (and some might say showmanship) and hits the lucrative lecture circuit with Obama. No foul there, smoke them if you've got them.
I would like to see Canada deploy more forces to the Baltics or Poland asap. Our hundred odd Leopard II tanks are of no use in Canada, for example.
I am amazed and shocked that media tart Trudeau did not wear a Zelensky fleece and T shirt and I am even more surprised that he took Chrystia Freeland with him and shared the "glory" with any Canadian that has a higher profile in Ukraine than he does.
Admiral Beez
Major
Well, he could've brought our most famous Ukrainian (combined with Belarusian), Wayne Gretzky.
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MiTasol
Major
Interesting link to aid by various countries. What is interesting to me is that small countries like Estonia are outperforming big countries on both % of GDP and on a per population basis. Estonia has only 1.3 million residents.
MiTasol
Major
Naahh - definitely too much photo op competition to have him as well.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
"Hey! Who's the guy standing next to the Great Gretzky?"
Admiral Beez
Major
What would the reaction of the US and NATO be in this case? There's still no Article 5 to fall back on. My guess is some NATO members would want to march into Ukraine right up to the pre-Feb 2022 borders, whilst others will want to do nothing.
buffnut453
Captain
It rather depends on where any such weapons are employed. If there's risk of WMD effects spreading beyond the borders of Ukraine, then it'll be a red line for most if not all NATO members and I think it would trigger an Article 5 discussion.
Things get a little more ticklish if the WMD is used well within Ukrainian borders with no risk of it spreading outside the country...although hawks within NATO (probably led by the US and UK) would still view it as a red line. Hungary and others may take a different view.
Glider
Major
The fact that they haven't been used yet when Russia has been more than happy to deploy Chemical weapons against civilian targets is almost astonishing. I wouldn't mind placing a bet on the Russians already having been told that if they use them, then there will be consequences.
In any war there are backdoor conversations
In any war there are backdoor conversations
Yes! That's almost certainly the case. They've been informed that it's a red line.
Admiral Beez
Major
It will be hard to argue that you're invading to save the local Russian-speaking populace when you've just gas them. Mind you, blowing their cities to sh#t doesn't help that either.
