"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

Thumpalumpacus · May 17, 2022

The Senate on Monday overwhelmingly advanced a $40 billion Ukraine aid package that easily passed the House last week but had stalled in the upper chamber because of an objection from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

Senators voted 81 to 11 to end debate on a motion to proceed to the legislation, setting up a final vote on the bill for later in the week.

https://thehill.com/news/senate/3490453-senate-set-to-advance-40-billion-ukraine-aid-package/

I won't repost the rest of the article as it is too political for forum rules, but those interested can link and read for themselves. I'm just glad for this move because I'm sure that it will be passed overwhelmingly and signed into law shortly.

We owe the Ukrainians every bit of aid and support we can muster.

GTX · May 17, 2022

Tin Tin has come out of retirement.

Escuadrilla Azul · May 17, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
This blunt assessment of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine is surprising in that it aired on Russian national TV:

LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.

[...]

"You should not swallow informational tranquilizers," Mikhail Khodaryonok, a retired colonel, told the "60 Minutes" talk show on Rossiya-1 hosted by Olga Skabeyeva, one of the most pro-Kremlin journalists on television.

"The situation, frankly speaking, will get worse for us," said Khodaryonok, a regular guest on state TV who gives often candid assessments of the situation.

He said that Ukraine could mobilise 1 armed million men.

Khodaryonok, a military columnist for the gazeta.ru newspaper and a graduate of one of Russia's elite military academies, cautioned before the invasion that such a step would not be in Russia's national interests.

[...]

"The desire to defend one's motherland in the sense that it exists in Ukraine - it really does exist there and they intend to fight to the last," Khodaryonok said before he was interrupted by Skabeyeva.

[...]

"The main thing in our business is have a sense of military-political realism: if you go beyond that then the reality of history will hit you so hard that you will not know what hit you," he said.

"Don't wave rockets in the direction of Finland for goodness sake - it just looks rather funny," he said.

Russia, he said, was isolated.

"The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and - however we don't want to admit it - practically the whole world is against us - and we need to get out of this situation."

Ukraine will get worse for isolated Russia, analyst says on state TV

One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.

www.reuters.com

He'll be logging in Siberia before too long, I bet.

Could this be an attempt to prepare the russian people for a general mobilization? Or a withdrawal?

GTX · May 17, 2022

Ukraine's port city of Mariupol on the verge of falling into Russian hands, as fate of Azovstal fighters remains unclear

The departure of Ukrainian fighters from the Azovstal plant is the beginning of the end of a nearly three-month siege that turned Mariupol into a worldwide symbol of both defiance and suffering.

www.abc.net.au

Thumpalumpacus · May 17, 2022

GTX said:
Tin Tin has come out of retirement.

View attachment 669173 View attachment 669174

I read Tintin regularly when I lived in Iran, we got the English version of the comic books usually a couple of months after Euro pub.

Thumpalumpacus · May 17, 2022

Escuadrilla Azul said:
Could this be an attempt to prepare the russian people for a general mobilization? Or a withdrawal?

I hadn't considered that perspective, but you're right, that seems in the realm of possibility, given the regime's tight media control. Perhaps a tamped-down version of Goebbels's "Are You Ready For Total War?" speech?

I suspect this would be more likely than preparing the Russian public for a withdrawal, simply because the regime can't afford a defeat, I don't think. But that too is possible.

Thumpalumpacus · May 17, 2022

GTX said:
Ukraine's port city of Mariupol on the verge of falling into Russian hands, as fate of Azovstal fighters remains unclear

The departure of Ukrainian fighters from the Azovstal plant is the beginning of the end of a nearly three-month siege that turned Mariupol into a worldwide symbol of both defiance and suffering.

www.abc.net.au

Do we know how many Russian troops these defenders pinned down? I think that would be the only Ukrainian metric for military success in this story. Obviously the morale boost of their staunch defense is a benefit, though much more intangible.

Admiral Beez · May 17, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
I suspect this would be more likely than preparing the Russian public for a withdrawal, simply because the regime can't afford a defeat, I don't think. But that too is possible.

Without a victory how does Putin explain away the estimated 20,000 dead and the tens of thousands returning wounded? When the Kursk sank Putin took a lot of unprecedented public criticism for the lost 118 Russian sons on that submarine.

The Kursk tragedy: How Putin’s first public crisis changed Russia

In August 2000, Vladimir Putin was just months into his first term as president of Russia when a crisis arose in the Barents Sea. A Russian submarine — the Kursk — had sunk following an accidental explosion, killing all but 23 soldiers on board and stranding the survivors with no means of...

ca.news.yahoo.com

Kursk submarine disaster - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is over 150 Kursks.

Escuadrilla Azul · May 17, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
Do we know how many Russian troops these defenders pinned down? I think that would be the only Ukrainian metric for military success in this story. Obviously the morale boost of their staunch defense is a benefit, though much more intangible.

Maybe some time in the future we could know that this resistance foiled russians plans in other ~~war~~ special military operation zone, like the Doolittle raid.

J_P_C · May 17, 2022

RogerdeLluria said:
Here is the vid for those who understand Russian, with subtitles, but as I don't speak russian, can't say how accurate they are.
Although I disagree with the Siberia option. I think he will be invited to take tea.

clearly finally somebody told them bitter truth - question is it was by purpose or just ill prepared TV show....

Escuadrilla Azul · May 17, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
I hadn't considered that perspective, but you're right, that seems in the realm of possibility, given the regime's tight media control. Perhaps a tamped-down version of Goebbels's "Are You Ready For Total War?" speech?

I suspect this would be more likely than preparing the Russian public for a withdrawal, simply because the regime can't afford a defeat, I don't think. But that too is possible.

Yes, a withdrawal acknowledge seems unlikely. Perhaps a mission completed claim despite the odds of the world against us more probable

Thumpalumpacus · May 17, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
Without a victory how does Putin explain away the estimated 20,000 dead and the tens of thousands returning wounded? When the Kursk sank Putin took a lot of unprecedented public criticism for the lost 118 Russian sons on that submarine.

The Kursk tragedy: How Putin’s first public crisis changed Russia

In August 2000, Vladimir Putin was just months into his first term as president of Russia when a crisis arose in the Barents Sea. A Russian submarine — the Kursk — had sunk following an accidental explosion, killing all but 23 soldiers on board and stranding the survivors with no means of...

ca.news.yahoo.com

Kursk submarine disaster - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is over 150 Kursks.

Agreed. I think Putin (knowingly or not) has staked his regime upon a successful defeat of Ukraine, and explaining a defeat will only reinforce impression that the 15,000-20,000 Russian body-bags arriving home will undercut his alleged competence and support.

Escuadrilla Azul · May 17, 2022

A russian advice to Israel to not support Ukrainia in any way?

For the first time, a S-300 SAM was launched against an israeli jet.

S-300 Surface-To-Air Missile Fired At Israeli Jets Over Syria For First Time: Report

In a first in the 11-year Syrian Civil War, Russian-supplied missiles have fired on Israeli jets, but with no casualties.

www.thedrive.com

Thumpalumpacus · May 17, 2022

Escuadrilla Azul said:
Yes, a withdrawal acknowledge seems unlikely. Perhaps a mission completed claim despite the odds of the world against us more probable

Right, declare victory and go home, a la America in 1973.

Admiral Beez · May 17, 2022

Escuadrilla Azul said:
A russian advice to Israel to not support Ukrainia in any way?

Yeah, poking Israel is always a smart move. The place is like Sparta, everyone is a soldier.

In 2006 I toured Israel when I sold pet food for a Canadian exporter. I traveled from tip to tip of that country with a bag of dog food under each arm. I was sitting with my distributor, his wife (they met in the army, she is/was a tank mechanic) and his dad, a gristled veteran of 1967 and 73. As we sat there near the border with Gaza in an Arab cafe, I observed a pair of F-15s circling overhead and of course soldiers everywhere (including the beautiful women of the IDF), and I mentioned that Israelis live an idyllic Mediterranean life and yet are seemingly always ready for battle. The old man thumped his finger on the table and said to me, "every Israeli knows that whoever comes they're not coming for territory, no, they're coming to kill every man, woman and child, and I tell you, never again will anyone f#ck with the Jewish people". I fell in love with the people and the place right there. And that is why Israelis are not to be screwed with. Whomever fired that missile today had better hope they're not found out, Mossad is everywhere.

Admiral Beez · May 17, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
Right, declare victory and go home, a la America in 1973.

Or Iraq in 2011, Withdrawal of United States troops from Iraq (2007–2011) - Wikipedia

Or Afghanistan in 2021 Withdrawal of United States troops from Afghanistan (2020–2021) - Wikipedia

RogerdeLluria · May 17, 2022

RogerdeLluria said:
Here is the vid for those who understand Russian, with subtitles, but as I don't speak russian, can't say how accurate they are.
Although I disagree with the Siberia option. I think he will be invited to take tea.

Admiral Beez said:
If his prediction comes true and there are soon to be one million NATO-armed, US/EU-financed Ukrainians... well, Russia's special operation in Ukraine is over.

Glider said:
I have to say that he was speaking well with a lot of common sense. The last statement said it all, 'It's a situation we need to get out of'

Escuadrilla Azul said:
Could this be an attempt to prepare the russian people for a general mobilization? Or a withdrawal?

J_P_C said:
clearly finally somebody told them bitter truth - question is it was by purpose or just ill prepared TV show....

Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.

February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nezavisimaya Gazeta published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.

Google translated version

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета

О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках

nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog

Russian version (google translate this one if the other doesn't work)

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета

О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках

nvo.ng.ru

His predictions aged extremely well. He was spot on even before the war started. Some pearls form his text:
- No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
- Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
- There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt.
- And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.

It's really a must read. Considering it was written 3 weeks before the war, everything he says has aged like a good wine.

space dodo · May 17, 2022

GTX said:
Tin Tin has come out of retirement.

View attachment 669173 View attachment 669174

Wish herge was still alive, would make an awesome Tintin.

Admiral Beez · May 17, 2022

RogerdeLluria said:
over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.

Thank you for posting that, it was very informative.

These people are motivated.... they remind me of Israelis, united under one cause, fighting for their homeland and culture against incredible odds.

space dodo · May 17, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
Thank you for posting that, it was very informative.

These people are motivated.... they remind me of Israelis, united under one cause, fighting for their homeland and culture against incredible odds.

That's the difference between them and the Russians. They're fighting for the survival of their country while Russia is "denazifying". To a Russian troop theirs no bin laden or Hitler who can be used as motivation to fight against.

"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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