Escuadrilla Azul
Tech Sergeant
- 1,669
- Feb 27, 2020
Thanks for posting, very very interesting.Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.
February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nezavisimaya Gazeta published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.
Google translated version
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Прогнозы кровожадных политологов
nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog
Russian version (google translate this one if the other doesn't work)
Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета
О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушкахnvo.ng.ru
His predictions aged extremely well. He was spot on even before the war started. Some pearls form his text:
- No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
- Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
- There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt.
- And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.
It's really a must read. Considering it was written 3 weeks before the war, everything he says has aged like a good wine.
I also found this sentence very insightful also, regarding the airborne assault on Antonov airport:
"The phrase "take the city with one airborne regiment in two hours""
Looks like the ukrainians take note of this but not the russians themselves.
Rather curious that such a free verse could be alive and making such public statements un Uncle Vlad world.