"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.

February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nezavisimaya Gazeta published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.

Google translated version

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета

О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках

nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog

Russian version (google translate this one if the other doesn't work)

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета

О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках

nvo.ng.ru

His predictions aged extremely well. He was spot on even before the war started. Some pearls form his text:
- No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
- Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
- There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt.
- And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.

It's really a must read. Considering it was written 3 weeks before the war, everything he says has aged like a good wine.

Thanks for posting, very very interesting.

I also found this sentence very insightful also, regarding the airborne assault on Antonov airport:

"The phrase "take the city with one airborne regiment in two hours""

Looks like the ukrainians take note of this but not the russians themselves.

Rather curious that such a free verse could be alive and making such public statements un Uncle Vlad world.

 

[Admiral Beez]

That's the difference between them and the Russians. They're fighting for the survival of their country while Russia is "denazifying". To a Russian troop theirs no bin laden or Hitler who can be used as motivation to fight against.

Indeed. Here's a Russian army ad. It's nothing about love of country, family and fighting for your fellow countrymen, but instead it's bravado and kicking enemy ass. I choose the former, thanks.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Rather curious that such a free verse could be alive and making such public statements un Uncle Vlad world.

Unfortunate that this guy is not part of Putin's inner circle, for the Ukrainians but also for Russians and the rest of the world.
But that is annother trait of dictators, they surround themselves by people that never oppose them.

 

[Glider]

Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.

February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nezavisimaya Gazeta published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.

Google translated version

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета

О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках

nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog

Russian version (google translate this one if the other doesn't work)

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета

О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках

nvo.ng.ru

His predictions aged extremely well. He was spot on even before the war started. Some pearls form his text:
- No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
- Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
- There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt.
- And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.

It's really a must read. Considering it was written 3 weeks before the war, everything he says has aged like a good wine.

An excellent article whch was written before the combat started. My favourite parts are: -

• By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in frank shock from the losses incurred. And you shouldn't forget about it
• As for the weakest point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the Air Force. It cannot be ruled out that the collective West may, in a fairly short time, supply Kyiv with fighters, as they say, from the presence of the armed forces - in other words, second-hand. However, this second-hand, in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics, will be quite comparable with the majority of aircraft in the Russian fleet. Whilst this hasn't happened it shows a high regard for the second hand NATO fighters presumably mainly F15 and F16
• It should be noted that this is likely to be the case. However, in the event of Russia's invasion, this does not at all rule out massive assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and bulk deliveries of all kinds of materiel. In this regard, the West has already shown a consolidated position, unprecedented until now, which, it seems, was not predicted in Moscow
• Experts are convinced that the urban environment helps the defenders, slows down the movement of the attackers, allows you to place a record number of fighters per unit area, and compensates for the lag in forces and technologies. And in Ukraine there are more than enough large cities, including those with a million inhabitants. So the Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet with far more than just Stalingrad and Grozny.
• In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as "The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes", "Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war", "Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes" have no serious grounds.

If I were Putin I would sack all my present advisors and give this guy the job, lets hope he doesn't.

 

[SaparotRob]

Good for you, and that your kids don't eat that crap. Neither do I.

However, McD is the worlds largest burger chain, and you or I not eating their is irrelevant. Russia makes up 9% or $2 billion of McDs revenue, so McD pulling out of Russia is pretty indicative of how they feel about Putlers illegal invasion and war crimes. That was the point.

Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.

 

[SaparotRob]

It's too bad the garrison couldn't have been reinforced, perhaps by sea or air drop. Such a strategic target should have had a stronger force once rumors of the invasion were clear.

Maybe the Ukrainians should seize Belgorod in exchange? It's only up the road from the Ukrainian front lines.

Ukraine accused of deadly cross-border attack on Russian village

If confirmed, it would mark the first time a Russian was killed inside the country by Ukraine shelling since war began.

www.aljazeera.com

Deja vu.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.

It's true, and much better than what used to be our most popular brand, Tim Hortons.

The seemingly terminal decline of Tim Hortons

What happened to Tim Hortons? The downfall of Canada's brand https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/09/tim-hortons-canada-coffee-brand-popularity-downfall Umm.... this is Canada you Brazilian f#cks. We have winter, and in the past winter drove us into Timmies, not away. Tim Horton and...

urbantoronto.ca

As for Russia….

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/burger-king-russia-rbi-1.6381654

 

[SaparotRob]

This blunt assessment of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine is surprising in that it aired on Russian national TV:

LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.

[...]

"You should not swallow informational tranquilizers," Mikhail Khodaryonok, a retired colonel, told the "60 Minutes" talk show on Rossiya-1 hosted by Olga Skabeyeva, one of the most pro-Kremlin journalists on television.


"The situation, frankly speaking, will get worse for us," said Khodaryonok, a regular guest on state TV who gives often candid assessments of the situation.

He said that Ukraine could mobilise 1 armed million men.

Khodaryonok, a military columnist for the gazeta.ru newspaper and a graduate of one of Russia's elite military academies, cautioned before the invasion that such a step would not be in Russia's national interests.

[...]

"The desire to defend one's motherland in the sense that it exists in Ukraine - it really does exist there and they intend to fight to the last," Khodaryonok said before he was interrupted by Skabeyeva.

[...]

"The main thing in our business is have a sense of military-political realism: if you go beyond that then the reality of history will hit you so hard that you will not know what hit you," he said.

"Don't wave rockets in the direction of Finland for goodness sake - it just looks rather funny," he said.

Russia, he said, was isolated.

"The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and - however we don't want to admit it - practically the whole world is against us - and we need to get out of this situation."

Ukraine will get worse for isolated Russia, analyst says on state TV

One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.

www.reuters.com

He'll be logging in Siberia before too long, I bet.

If his heart is strong enough.

 

[gumbyk]

Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.

When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.

McDonalds coffee (even their barista-made stuff) is crap - worse than their burgers.

 

[SaparotRob]

When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.

Never understood why Starbucks is so popular.

 

[SaparotRob]

Tin Tin has come out of retirement.

View attachment 669173View attachment 669174

Is Snowie ok?

 

[Dimlee]

Do we know how many Russian troops these defenders pinned down? I think that would be the only Ukrainian metric for military success in this story. Obviously the morale boost of their staunch defense is a benefit, though much more intangible.

Allegedly, from 12,000 to 20,000 RF troops were tied up in Mariupol until the end of April/early May. Not counting the air force.

 

[Dimlee]

Good maps.

 

[SaparotRob]

Agreed. I think Putin (knowingly or not) has staked his regime upon a successful defeat of Ukraine, and explaining a defeat will only reinforce impression that the 15,000-20,000 Russian body-bags arriving home will undercut his alleged competence and support.

Weren't the Russians incinerating countless bodies? It's still going to be hard to cover up all the dead from both sides even if most of the Russian losses are from Russia's poorest regions.

 

[Dimlee]

By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict.

I like this one "not Georgians", so typical. Whenever they have their nose blooded, they pretend that it was not the opponent (who was so weak and insignificant) but someone else in the background. Actually, there were Ukrainian experts but they worked along with Georgian crews.
After the Winter War, Stalin said in his famous speech: "we defeated not just Finns - that was not a big deal. We defeated the equipment, tactics and strategy of the most developed countries of Europe."

 

[at6]

PS Herr Jagdflieger…

Wenn du Respekt willst, musst du ihn auch geben. Treten Sie vom Pferd herunter.

I was able to get a vague understanding of your post. Me and my rusty a$$ German.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.

McDonalds coffee (even their barista-made stuff) is crap - worse than their burgers.

I agree. Never cared for their coffee either.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Good maps.
View attachment 669189

I like how the map shows the limited extent of Russian held territory north of Crimea, I assume it's limited to a few highway corridors.

 

[Crimea_River]

....If I were Putin I would sack all my present advisors and give this guy the job, lets hope he doesn't.

No. If you were Putin, you'd keep all your weak yes-men and buy this guy an arsenic-flavoured coffee.

 

[WARSPITER]

McDonalds system for franchising is clever. Buy the property then franchise. The property is then paid for under the franchise.

McDonalds could stop bothering with the business altogether and they are still way in front. The brands main advantage is that
it has allowed McDonalds to buy prime real estate in nearly every major city on the planet.

McDonalds is the largest private real estate owner in the World with over 30 billion dollars of land.

Another snippet - McDonalds makes the most profit on soft drinks and chips (fries).