"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

[Thumpalumpacus]

Zelenskiy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire and said Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding territory. He said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would hit back harder after any break in fighting.

[...]

Acknowledging that Kyiv's stance on the war was becoming more uncompromising, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would hit back harder after any break in fighting.

[...]

"They'll start a new offensive, even more bloody and large-scale," Podolyak, Ukraine's lead negotiator, told Reuters in an interview in the heavily guarded presidential office.

Recent calls for an immediate ceasefire have come from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

As Russia intensifies push for Donbas, Ukraine rules out ceasefire

Ukraine ruled out a ceasefire or concessions to Moscow on Saturday as Russia intensified an offensive in the eastern Donbas region and stopped providing gas to Finland.

www.reuters.com

Crunch-time now. This is where Russia will try to pincer the defenders with some sort of envelopment.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Crunch-time now. This is where Russia will try to pincer the defenders with some sort of envelopment.

They must just succeed to some limited degree, but at the cost of another 20,000 or more dead Russians.

 

[Jagdflieger]

Too many very very rich men. No hope of. It will take a year or 2 or more but it will happen. Look at how the population piramide is in russia. The young will in the end revolt. It is them who are dieing in ditches in an unjust war and getting blown to pieces. It needs a spark, but that is coming i believe. You can drive Russians just that far.

Further then most people but there is an end. Look at the recent history.

Well they have been going through this process already since 1988 remember? First totalitarian system from the Carz's time to Soviet-time. then into the Gorbi/Yeltsin period (total
abuse of a free economy and 'democracy") resulting into a lawless Mafia and oligarch state. Reigned in by Putin - who- maybe rightfully reinstalled a central authority regime to
combat these disastrous developments.
I never spoke to him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he took China as an example in this specific matter. Steadfast the country first and then make sure that the living-educational standard is significantly raised, then let's see were this eventually leads to in 50 years time.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

Can we start them out on the Ercoupe of democracy?

They had a flight in the Ercoupe post USSR; they crashed it on takeoff.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

They must just succeed to some limited degree, but at the cost of another 20,000 or more dead Russians.

As with any envelopment, it really depends on how fast it unfolds. I'm not seeing the Russians being able to collapse Ukrainian lines quick enough for a big bag. Speed is of the essence from the Russian point of view, but can they manage a fast offensive slice? I'm skeptical, barring a Ukrainian collapse.

 

[Jagdflieger]

As with any envelopment, it really depends on how fast it unfolds. I'm not seeing the Russians being able to collapse Ukrainian lines quick enough for a big bag. Speed is of the essence from the Russian point of view, but can they manage a fast offensive slice? I'm skeptical, barring a Ukrainian collapse.

I think that Putin is playing the long run strategy - how this works out we will be most likely to see from july-August onward.
Astonishingly since end of April it is actually the Russians with their limited combat and militia troops that are still gaining territory - towards a numerical and technically superior
equipped Ukraine that even holds the significant tactical advantage of being the defender, and their losses (not just the unfortunate civilians) are also mounting.

One needs to remember that the Ukrainian MoD in Summer last year already stated that it possess e.g. more ATGM then there are targets. And that Russia would need a million men to
conquer/defeat the Ukraine. This also being the reason why the Ukraine Armed Forces didn't really believe in being attacked by Russia until 24th of February.
And off course Putin and his staff also are/were aware about that.

So the question to me is rather, how will Putin in July-August onward, counter an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive with the Ukraine holding a numerical advantage of 3:1

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think that Putin is playing the long run strategy - how this works out we will be most likely to see from july-August onward.
Astonishingly since end of April it is actually the Russians with their limited combat and militia troops that are still gaining territory - towards a numerical and technically superior
equipped Ukraine that even holds the significant tactical advantage of being the defender, and their losses (not just the unfortunate civilians) are also mounting.

One needs to remember that the Ukrainian MoD in Summer last year already stated that it possess e.g. more ATGM then there are targets. And that Russia would need a million men to
conquer/defeat the Ukraine. This also being the reason why the Ukraine Armed Forces didn't really believe in being attacked by Russia until 24th of February.
And off course Putin and his staff also are/were aware about that.

So the question to me is rather, how will Putin in July-August onward, counter an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive with the Ukraine holding a numerical advantage of 3:1

I don't know that Ukraine will have that numerical advantage, but I agree that August-September will be where someone shits or gets off'n the pot. Mud will be setting in again by October, which imposes a hard limit on mobile ops. Finances on both sides will be draining; but if Ukraine can hold out 'til the end of Sept/early Oct they will certainly hold a better negotiating position, I think. New fiscal year in American will permit another round of aid packaging, tiding Ukraine over the winter and able to fight the incoming Russian conscript class.

 

[Jagdflieger]

My God those Russians are really scraping up everything they got - the 2s7 SP gun is from the early 70's !! - probably due to available ammo.

Ukrainian military destroy Russiaâs Tiulpan gun used to shell Sievierodonetsk

The members of the National Guard of Ukraine have destroyed Russia’s 2S4 Tiulpan self-propelled mortar, which was used to shell Sievierodonetsk and ruin a bridge between the regional center and Lysychansk. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

The members of the National Guard of Ukraine have destroyed Russia's Pion gun, which was used to shell Sievierodonetsk and ruin a bridge between the regional center and Lysychansk.
In addition, Haidai thanked Russian propagandists, who were bragging about the weapons and provided a tip-off to adjust fire.

 

[fubar57]

​

 

[Admiral Beez]

Astonishingly since end of April it is actually the Russians with their limited combat and militia troops that are still gaining territory - towards a numerical and technically superior equipped Ukraine

I'm not aware of the Ukrainians having gained much land before it was first ceded by the Russians. Have the Ukrainians defeated any large Russian formations in a defended position? That's what the UAF are facing as they must now mount offensives into Russian defensive positions in the Donbas.

 

[Jagdflieger]

I'm not aware of the Ukrainians having gained much land before it was first ceded by the Russians. Have the Ukrainians defeated any large Russian formations in a defended position? That's what the UAF are facing as they must now mount offensives into Russian defensive positions in the Donbas.

Since the Ukrainian MoD and as such the western press, is very sparse with figures, not to mention "factual" figures, it is really very hard to tell as to what losses the Ukrainians have
occurred since May - just giving info in regards to claimed losses by the Russians. It seems realistic to me that Avozsteel alone cost the Ukrainians 4-5000 men in WIA/KIA and POW.

In regards to the "liberation of territory" around Kharkiv also no Ukrainian figures are available - and the Russians actually having withdrawn rather then being defeated/destroyed.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

To be fair, Sun-Tzu did opine that the best victory was won without fighting.

 

[Admiral Beez]

To be fair, Sun-Tzu did opine that the best victory was won without fighting.

Yes, but not if the spoils of your victory is land when the objective was to destroy your enemy's forces. That was the failure of Germany's Case Blue, their 1942 offensive where they were supposed to repeat 1941's success at Barbarossa by encircling and destroying huge numbers of Russian forces. However in Blue's case, the Russians all withdrew and the Germans captured nothing but some farms and a few spiked oil heads. That's what the Ukrainians are doing, advances but the Russians elude them.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yes, but not if the spoils of your victory is land when the objective was to destroy your enemy's forces. That was the failure of Germany's Case Blue, their 1942 offensive where they were supposed to repeat 1941's success at Barbarossa by encircling and destroying huge numbers of Russian forces. However in Blue's case, the Russians all withdrew and the Germans captured nothing but some farms and a few spiked oil heads. That's what the Ukrainians are doing, advances but the Russians elude them.

I think the retreat north of Kyiv was not so much in anticipation of an attack and voiding the area, but rather the logistical logjam put the kibosh on further advance. In either case, it was a Russian decision rather than Ukrainian force-of-arms that resulted in that reverse. In Ukraine's case, their tailored strategy of controlling communications and chokepoints seems to have paid off, resulting in the lost territory being regained without too much sacrifice.

That's why it made me think of Sun-Tzu.

 

[taly01]

I think the retreat north of Kyiv was not so much in anticipation of an attack and voiding the area,

The "word" from a Serbian LDNR volunteer is that it was LDNR militia that was holding north of Kiev (sorry use WW2 tank nerd spelling), and after coming under Ukr artillery they kinda panic'k and fled, from an organised Ukr attack.

But overall the casualties are really dreadful for Ukr forces near Donbass, which are getting rolled up a few km each day. No air force and getting pounded by artillery is a horrific equation. Add in drone and satellite targetting and the Ukr forces is in a Falaise Gap situation in East.

 

[ThomasP]

Interesting bit of info:

"Soldiers issued guidelines to avoid using mobiles in Russia-Ukraine war"

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think the retreat north of Kyiv was not so much in anticipation of an attack and voiding the area, but rather the logistical logjam put the kibosh on further advance. In either case, it was a Russian decision rather than Ukrainian force-of-arms that resulted in that reverse. That's why it made me think of Sun-Tzu.

It's a good and apt reference. But how does Ukraine retake the north coast of the Sea of Azov, Mariupol and the Donbas if the Russians are dug in and now well supplied?

 

[Jerad]

Боже мой, эти русские реально все наскребают - САУ 2с7 начала 70-х!! - вероятно, из-за имеющихся боеприпасов.

Ukrainian military destroy Russiaâs Tiulpan gun used to shell Sievierodonetsk

The members of the National Guard of Ukraine have destroyed Russia’s 2S4 Tiulpan self-propelled mortar, which was used to shell Sievierodonetsk and ruin a bridge between the regional center and Lysychansk. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

Нацгвардейцы Украины уничтожили российскую пушку «Пион», из которой обстреливали Северодонецк и разрушили мост между областным центром и Лисичанском.
Кроме того, Хайдай поблагодарил российских пропагандистов, которые хвастались оружием и давали наводку на пристрелку.


Bridge

 

[Admiral Beez]

Is destroying a single forty year old Pion self propelled howitzer significant?

 

[Jerad]

Set fire to a military registration and enlistment office in the Moscow region as a sign of protest and filmed it on a GoPro camera. ~ 9\05\22
The arsonist wrote the following on the fence.
He explained his motives by the fact that, first of all, he wanted to destroy the archive with the personal files of conscripts in order to prevent mobilization.
In addition, he stated the following: "I think it needs to be spread. Ukrainians will know that in Russia they are fighting for them, not everyone is afraid and not everyone is indifferent. Our protesters must be inspired and act more decisively. And it must be even stronger to break the spirit of the Russian army and the resolution. Let these n * daras know that their own people hate them and will extinguish them. Their earth will soon lose its burning under their feet, hell awaits at home too.



Arson of a military registration and enlistment office in the Moscow region ~18\05\22



Arson of a military enlistment office in Nizhnevartovsk ~ 5\05\22




Arson of a military enlistment office in Cherepovets ~9\05\22



News RF also reports that the draft board in Novosibirsk is on fire on ~ 05/20/22

Новосибирске подожгли военкомат 20 тыс документы призывников уничтожены

Also on the Internet there is information with a photo that a military registration and enlistment office caught fire in Omsk, and another citys, but video i not finded

Плюс один: очередной военкомат в россии забросали коктейлями Молотова (фото)

Российские полицейские пока не комментируют инцидент

telegraf.com.ua

Today in Dagestan, in protest against the war in Ukraine, a little girl said "Freedom to Ukraine" into the microphone and called Putin - devil.

Дагестан. Последний звонок: «Нет войне! Свободу Украине! Путин - черт!»

Concert group Kis - Kis in St. Petersburg, May 20, 2022.
The whole hall shouts an anti-war slogan.

Питер, концер, люди скандируют здравые вещи